The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

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SSundar
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:52 pm

"The Hindu" N. Ram's role here is quite telling. I assume some data miner told RaGa about The Hindu's role in making Bofors stick to his dad. So, "The Hindu" may have been chosen as the vehicle to carry the Rafale scam to the people because of this past association - even though that was all due to Chitra Subramaniam, the journalist - to daringly exposing a massive scam. They are hoping to use the credibility this time. Almighty Mao knows what incentive Ram was given to tow the line.

Over the last 25 years at least, the man does not even go to the toilet without the Beijing Politburo's approval. Does N. Ram sticking it out against Rafale signal Beijing's direct involvement in scuttling the Rafale deal?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:45 am

The citizenship bill is a disaster, at least in the North East. BJP has thrown the election there.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by la.khan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:50 am

SSundar wrote: "The Hindu" N. Ram's role here is quite telling. I assume some data miner told RaGa about The Hindu's role in making Bofors stick to his dad. So, "The Hindu" may have been chosen as the vehicle to carry the Rafale scam to the people because of this past association - even though that was all due to Chitra Subramaniam, the journalist - to daringly exposing a massive scam. They are hoping to use the credibility this time. Almighty Mao knows what incentive Ram was given to tow the line.

Over the last 25 years at least, the man does not even go to the toilet without the Beijing Politburo's approval. Does N. Ram sticking it out against Rafale signal Beijing's direct involvement in scuttling the Rafale deal?
I don't think there is a whiff of corruption/scam in the Rafale deal. However, what is scandalous is what The Hindu did with file notings. If this is not fake news, then what is? Quite a descent for a paper that calls itself India's National Newspaper! Ack thoo!!

As for Naxal Ram, if the charge of corruption in the Rafale deal sticks to the NaMo government, 1. NaMo/BJP will have difficulty retaining the simple majority post GE2019 2. Rafale deal gets cancelled or at least delayed pending further investigation, helps China 3. With Cong(I)s and/or Maha-thug-bandhan, China will feel strengthened. Naxal Ram is doing his bit for his Chinese masters :evil:

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by la.khan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:08 am

The other thing about The Hindu "expose" on Rafale deal.

One media outlet prints govt file notings in partial and there is a rebuttal on this from another media outlet, publishing the file notings in full :shock: Within a few hours!

How is this possible? Are these files so openly available, almost on demand? Do we celebrate the fact that Indian media/journalists are so capable or do we rue the fact that the government files are so easily available? :)) Please remember these are not files from archives (from 50s, 60s, or 70s), but files from 3-4 years back. :facepalm:

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by la.khan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:14 am

JohnTitor wrote: The citizenship bill is a disaster, at least in the North East. BJP has thrown the election there.
Agree it was poor timing to bring such a controversial legislation just before GE2019. I was surprised to see Himanta Biswa Sarma support the bill. My only consolation is that HBS knows what he is doing. I hope HBS/NaMo/BJP can pull this off.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by srikumar » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:16 am

The Hindu and NDTV does some funny stuff ... I see their 'feeds' on NBC news website under 'Sponsored Content'.
It means that THe Hindu is paying NBC to put specific news items probably targetted towards someone, I dont know who.
Their headline/newsitem was: 51 women enter Sabarimala shrine. I dont know who in the US would give 2 hoots about it, yet Hindu pays money for that! And NDTV 'news' that they advertize on NBC news site is about Priyanka Chopra and Nick Jonas' post-honeymoon honeymoon.
Seeing their fawning coverage of the couple on their own website makes me cringe. It is some sort of mental sickness (IMHO) that any newschannel follows them so closely...and now they are paying to give that news story more publicity. I dont know why any news channel would do that.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:22 am

^^ sponsored content are like ads. They vary depending on the visiting IP address.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:26 am

la.khan wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:08 am
The other thing about The Hindu "expose" on Rafale deal.

One media outlet prints govt file notings in partial and there is a rebuttal on this from another media outlet, publishing the file notings in full :shock: Within a few hours!

How is this possible? Are these files so openly available, almost on demand? Do we celebrate the fact that Indian media/journalists are so capable or do we rue the fact that the government files are so easily available? :)) Please remember these are not files from archives (from 50s, 60s, or 70s), but files from 3-4 years back. :facepalm:
With money, you can buy anything in India. If you want to hunt People like 'hard target', that can be done. Want a dinner/photo op with the PM, easy peasy. I'm surprised people are surprised!

Rafael isn't a scam, anyone with more than half a brain cell can tell you that. Problem is, voters don't have more than half a brain cell.

Fake news needs to be prosecuted, keep dragging them to courts till they stop.. even the government can do this, after all.. is the legal system.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Aditya_V » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:53 am

These news reports are not targetted at intelligent people, but to give the core some points to argue and convince fence sitters. UPA had scams, How long you will blame UPA, Modi can do everything in 17 seconds etc etc. Its all about changing the entitlement system.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:04 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:43 pm
Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
Feb 7

The general consensus among diverse section of hyperlocal intelligentsia is that BJP is currently stuck at 220 MP seats.
About 5 years ago at this juncture, the consensus was stuck at 180 MPs for Modi, but actual voting pattern pushed the tally towards 280... and this time?
Let us see if he is able to train his analytics-based model for better predictions.
this guy will always come out with some last minute fancy explanation as to why his prediction went wrong and he will, as usual, wash his hands of it.

he has been making predictions for some time now and it is mostly BS.

He gets his money from crowd sourcing and other investor sources, makes his schitt predictions and promptly flees the battlefield.

Even a dead clock is right twice a day.

His dead clock days are long over.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:31 am

Have to agree with chetak. His predictions are as rubbish as everyone else's.

But it's not due to dishonesty. It's because the model he's using doesn't work in India. The previous model where he interviewed people, was good but understandably expensive.

The worst part of his current modeling is, it changes as the counting comes in. And then he has the gall to call it "dynamic modelling" or some other nonsense. I mean, that's simply a joke. Anyone can "predict" based on real time numbers.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by kvjayan » Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:48 am

N. Ram steals a govt. document and publishes (a part of it, conveniently) with "The Hindu" water mark to claim copyright!
JohnTitor wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:26 am
la.khan wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:08 am
The other thing about The Hindu "expose" on Rafale deal.

One media outlet prints govt file notings in partial and there is a rebuttal on this from another media outlet, publishing the file notings in full :shock: Within a few hours!

How is this possible? Are these files so openly available, almost on demand? Do we celebrate the fact that Indian media/journalists are so capable or do we rue the fact that the government files are so easily available? :)) Please remember these are not files from archives (from 50s, 60s, or 70s), but files from 3-4 years back. :facepalm:
With money, you can buy anything in India. If you want to hunt People like 'hard target', that can be done. Want a dinner/photo op with the PM, easy peasy. I'm surprised people are surprised!

Rafael isn't a scam, anyone with more than half a brain cell can tell you that. Problem is, voters don't have more than half a brain cell.

Fake news needs to be prosecuted, keep dragging them to courts till they stop.. even the government can do this, after all.. is the legal system.

KL Dubey
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:03 pm

chetak wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:04 am
KL Dubey wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 5:43 pm
Dr Praveen Patil
@5Forty3
Feb 7

The general consensus among diverse section of hyperlocal intelligentsia is that BJP is currently stuck at 220 MP seats.
About 5 years ago at this juncture, the consensus was stuck at 180 MPs for Modi, but actual voting pattern pushed the tally towards 280... and this time?
Let us see if he is able to train his analytics-based model for better predictions.
this guy will always come out with some last minute fancy explanation as to why his prediction went wrong and he will, as usual, wash his hands of it.

he has been making predictions for some time now and it is mostly BS.

He gets his money from crowd sourcing and other investor sources, makes his schitt predictions and promptly flees the battlefield.

Even a dead clock is right twice a day.

His dead clock days are long over.
I'm not plugging for Praveen Patil, but you do not realize that what he is doing is the future, and is already becoming real. He is developing market analytics, and election prediction is one application - it's part of the "big data revolution". If you are wondering how Cambridge Analytica and other "foreign agencies" can manage to impact Indian elections, this is it. Miss the bus at your own peril. Right now he seems to be the only "right-winger" playing in this space.

The idea is how to predict vote share in an election without having to do an expensive and laborious poll every two weeks. For that you develop a set of "descriptors" that you can easily measure with much less resources (or the data may already be out there). Then you use artificial intelligence/deep learning etc to train a computer to predict the results using the descriptors. There is tons of Indian election data available out there for training.

The key is the quality and number of the descriptors....those are usually proprietary. Some descriptors could be totally obvious and universal, some could be very non-obvious and area-specific. For example, the number of people that show up for panchayat meetings in a constituency could be a descriptor, and you can measure it by just sending a few guys.

The point is not necessarily that this approach is more accurate than the traditional approach (it may be more accurate or it may have the same margin of error) - but most importantly:

(A) it allows a client (say a political party) to understand the environment in non-obvious way, and target a strategy with less effort/expense and more effect.

(B) it is cheaper by an order of magnitude, from my experience in a totally unrelated field.

n the old days it was all about brute force techniques like bribing voters and good old election rigging....now it is becoming possible to engineer elections in very sophisticated ways.

For you and me, the only thing that matters may be a "prediction" or a "number", but that itself is becoming more and more irrelevant since the election environment has becoming highly dynamic and can be engineered by a party within days if they have analytics to help them.

Think about it before dismissing the likes of Patil. He is not a pollster. This kind of work will make pollsters obsolete.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by fanne » Sat Feb 09, 2019 2:39 pm

It was not obvious to me that PP is in big data abalytics.
He was very upfront about his model for the three state election. He had a historical base and predicted swings and thus % and seats based on that. He even commented on other surveys saying how can they ignore the base vote of each party and just look at swings (perhaps his survey was also saying -ve swing for bjp, but he was putting against a very high bjp base voter). He has outlined this methodology in his surveys.
Where things went wrong (and remember vote% is the only thing that a survey can predict, seat share conversion is only art no science and MP and Rajasthan BJP did fine), his assumption that there is a fixed base and what % went wrong. Many bjp voters (or younger member of that family) that had not voted congress in last 10 elections, voted Congress (gst and demo). Many business community like in Indore, that had family voting bjp/Jansangh even when bjp could not keep deposit (and would give money to bjp coffee without any expectation), the younger member voted cong.
By how much, just reading various survey, bjp lost 15% of vote to cong (net effect 30%, 15% gain to cong and 15% lost to bjp). What was the effect. Taking MP(or Raj) forward caste/upper and middle class at 20%, it increased cong vote by 3% and decreased bjp by 3%.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:48 pm

My explanation of PP's prediction going bust is this. Yes, he does use big data analytics for his prediction models. There are 2 issues with this. One is that in phenomenon like elections where there is no underlying physical model (people's choices etc are dependent on any number of factors), any data-based model one attempts to build will be riddled with inaccuracies (I will refrain from giving a professorial lecture on machine learning, but this is related to the so called bias-variance tradeoff :-)). The second issue is having coming up with a predictive model, interpreting the results of that model especially if its not a slam dunk prediction: meaning if the model says 51% probability of BJP winning and 49% Pappu winning, then, someone's personal bias enters into the picture, and clearly PP is biased in favor of BJP. Hence is predictions are most of the time wildly overoptimistic in favor of BJP :-).

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:07 pm

Shorn of all the histrionics, mumbo jumbo and what have you, we need a quick read of the way the wind is blowing.

That's the be all and end all of it.

If patil can do that, whatever methodology he uses, people will respect him. After all, in his business, it is the end that counts not the means. Predictions are customer facing and any methodology is merely back office.

When the lamb is going to be slaughtered, it makes no difference to the lamb if the knife is steel or ceramic.

He is in the business of analysis and predictions based on his analysis.

If he has a high success rate in his predictions, people will look at him, respect him and if not, people will ignore him.

As far as patil is concerned, its all in the delivery.

He can cast arcane spells and chant incantations, and read tea leaves just so long as he is right with his predictions a good bit of the time.

Explanations, after the fact are simply odious.
Last edited by chetak on Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by syam » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:13 pm

TWITTER vs BJP
🔸BJP Supporters Claims of Discrimination by Twitter
🔸PC (Parliamentary Committee) Calls Twitter for Discussion
🔸Twitter Officials Refuse to Appear
🔸Parliamentary Committee Takes Very Serious Note, Appropriate Action on February 11, Confirms Anurag Thakur
What actions can GoI take here? I mean what can we possibly do that can be considered as 'action'?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Narasimha » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:22 pm

The parliamentary committee may recommend blocking twitter till it complies.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:49 pm


SSundar
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:44 pm

la.khan wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:08 am
The other thing about The Hindu "expose" on Rafale deal.

One media outlet prints govt file notings in partial and there is a rebuttal on this from another media outlet, publishing the file notings in full :shock: Within a few hours!

How is this possible?
Here's a conspiracy theory.

* MoD official X has been a mole for Congis and has passed on a lot of info to Pappu mafia.
* MAD gets a whiff, locates the mole and "handles" him/her.
* Mole is used to pass cropped document to Congi hands, which goes to Naxal Ram for publication.
* Naxal Ram publishes. RaGa screams on TV with cropped document.
* MoD leaks the legit document to friendly media.
* MoD Official plugged, Naxal Ram stung to near-death, Pappu found limping.
* Congis can no longer be certain which other MoD moles have been turned into double agents. So, they will watch their tails.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:16 am

Narasimha wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:22 pm
The parliamentary committee may recommend blocking twitter till it complies.
Here is my tweet to Chitra Sumramanian's tweet wondering if ass-hole twits would dare show this kind of dada giri were US congress demand that they appear before them

Chitra Subramaniam

Verified account

@chitraSD
Follow Follow @chitraSD
More Chitra Subramaniam Retweeted Republic
Would be interesting to know how @Twitter would have reacted to summons from, let’s say the #EuropeanUnion.

CRamS

9h9 hours ago
More
Replying to @chitraSD @Twitter @TwitterIndia
Kidding me? Twitter CEO on bent knees will appear in US Congress/Senate answering a torrent of questions (designed to protect US interests) & begging for forgiveness for any indiscretions/censorship. Only in India with colonized elites will they get away with chutzpah & dada giri

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by suryag » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:28 am

Please do your bit for funding the family of Sri Ramalingam
https://milaap.org/fundraisers/sri-rama ... _id=897463

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by arshyam » Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:41 am

syam wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:13 pm
TWITTER vs BJP
🔸BJP Supporters Claims of Discrimination by Twitter
🔸PC (Parliamentary Committee) Calls Twitter for Discussion
🔸Twitter Officials Refuse to Appear
🔸Parliamentary Committee Takes Very Serious Note, Appropriate Action on February 11, Confirms Anurag Thakur
What actions can GoI take here? I mean what can we possibly do that can be considered as 'action'?
Time to block twitter till they comply, and GoI should publicly issue a directive to not use Twitter for updates till this is resolved. Is there a desi equivalent app we can move to in the meantime? A few ten million accounts going dormant and switching over would put their chaddis in a serious twist.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:01 am

Please read the entire thread.
Abhijit Iyer-Mitra


@Iyervval
19h19 hours ago
More
8n on Nuclear issues (especially the US and other European countries that hold nuclear patents). Now thanks to N Ram our negotiating weakness vis-a-vis the French is in full public view and has consequences well beyond just #Rafale and defence.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by srikumar » Sun Feb 10, 2019 3:02 am

JohnTitor wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 3:22 am
^^ sponsored content are like ads. They vary depending on the visiting IP address.
i know sponsored content is ads.

It is bizarre for a legitimate news organization to pay money to another news organization to sell their news (yes I know these are sellout news organizations yada yada). One such news item was on Priyanka chopra's marriage something (wanted to puke just looking at the headline) and another from The Hindu was that 51 women entered Sabarimalai
I can't imagine why Hindu would be paying a foreign outlet to advertise Sabarimalai fake news (51 women story was proven fake). This is a new form of sickness from an already corrupt organization. The only good news is that they wasted their money on me.

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