Election Discussions - National, State etc

[Hari Seldon]

^True, FCRA was inexplicably amended quite recently in fact. I railed against it, for the record.

Heh.

[Sachin]

The JDS and INC had no declared alliance until today. The INC moved fast to rope in the JDS. This was most likely done with the movement of money bags. The question is where did the INC get the crores to do this?

I don't think money bags have got exchanged (at least not yet). JD(S) which is pretty much a state level party is given a golden chance on a platter to form a government with their man even being the Chief Minister. That itself is more than any truck loads of money bag for the time being. Remember, if any one; BJP or Congress got over the 111 mark, then no one would even have cared two hoots for JD(S), Gowdru & Sons.

[chetak]

The JDS and INC had no declared alliance until today. The INC moved fast to rope in the JDS. This was most likely done with the movement of money bags. The question is where did the INC get the crores to do this? I would speculate that foreign BIF forces and some foreign governments facilitated the money transfer.

I believe the FCRA was amended to exempt political parties. If someone can confirm this exemption please?

The minority moneybags who benefitted enormously during the past govt have enough and more stashed away. They would have been forced to unbelt some of it to pay the advance and also the goodwill payment.

Nothing moves in the agriculture dept without the application of copious amounts of fertilizer, bags and bags of it actually.

[crams]

Guys, while BJP's performance was indeed awesome, I am bit dampened after the initial euphoria for the following reasons:

1. BJP's seat share seems to be coming down and down. When I went to bed around 2 AM CDT, Dorkie's channel was giving BJP at 115, TimesNow at 114, Undy gave it 116 etc. From there I saw this morning it was 107, and now its 104. I don't know how many more corrections will be there. Hope at least BJP stay above 100.

2. What this means is that BJP is not within striking distance. I thought with BJP at 100+, JDS will be under pressure to go with BJP. But that doesn't appear to be the case. Unless Amit Shah can engineer a split within JDS.

3. Despite all the noise dorkie and TimesNow were making during the election returns, it seems to me that neither the Lutyen media nor Pappu and his slaves are out. They have lived to fight another day. Has BJP remained 112+ the anti-Pappu feelings would have been a bit more visible among opposition thugbandhan, but he still remains the silver-spoon fed mama's boy Pappu given a free reign and air time to spew gas against BJP.

5. Amit Shah and ModiJi were brilliant but they have got to get their act together for 2019. Karnataka has shown that if the mahathugbandhan can put aside their differences, they can be a formidable force to thwart BJP in 2019

[achoudhury]

Here is story of Karnataka election :


@KiranKS
4h4 hours ago
More
BJP fell short by 8 seats in #KarnatakaVerdict

BJP lost 8 BLR seats by smaller margins.

Anekal 8627
Bytarayanapura 5671
Dasarahalli 6410 so far
Gandhinagar 10070
Hebbal 10953 so far
Hosakote 7597
Shivajinagar 15040
Vijayanagar 2775

35,00,000 voters didn't vote in Bengaluru
In other words, @BJP4Karnataka lost a chance to gain majority on its own, by around 67,000 Bengaluru votes only. That's less than 2% of the registered voters of Bengaluru who did NOT go out and vote.

-----------------
It seems that they will complain day and night, moan , groan, get spanked but secretly, they love it. Shame on Bengaluru.

[Rudradev]

3. Despite all the noise dorkie and TimesNow were making during the election returns, it seems to me that neither the Lutyen media nor Pappu and his slaves are out. They have lived to fight another day. Has BJP remained 112+ the anti-Pappu feelings would have been a bit more visible among opposition thugbandhan, but he still remains the silver-spoon fed mama's boy Pappu given a free reign and air time to spew gas against BJP.

This is a good thing

[shynee]

Ram Madhav
‏
Verified account

@rammadhavbjp
10h10 hours ago

In Karnataka, TDP n Chandrababu Naidu have used all tactics to dissuade Telugu voters from supporting BJP. But in Hyderabad Karnataka where most Telugus live, BJP has increased its tally from 6 to 20+. People have rejected CBN’s politics. Our Southward March has begun.

[Rudradev]

Interesting stuff afoot
https://postcard.news/big-twist-in-karn ... the-party/

Big twist in Karnataka politics!!! Not just 15 Congress and JD (S) MLAs are in talks with the BJP but even the Lingayat leaders from Congress are threatening to quit the party

The Karnataka election battle is getting more interesting than the IPL match. Now a report has come that Congress Lingayat leaders are all set to quit the Congress party after Congress decided to lend its unconditional support to the JD (S).

Yes, the Republic TV reported that “Total 15 MLAs in talks with BJP. 9 from JD(S), 6 from Congress”. The sources said that the JD (S) MLAs are in constant talks with the BJP.

Earlier, the former CM of Karnataka, Mr BS Yeddyurappa had met the governor and assured that his party will prove the majority. But as soon as this development took place, reports claimed that the Congress and JD (S) will accumulate its MLAs in resorts so that they can stop defection.

“Congress to take Congress and JDS MLAs to resort in either Andhra Pradesh or in Punjab even as BJP stakes claim to form government, asking to prove majority on the floor of the house” said the Republic TV.

But Dr Subramanian Swamy had said that “BJP should insist with Governor that since all fought separately hence the largest I.e., BJP be called first and asked to prove majority on the floor. We are only 4 short”.

ANI had reported “A Congress delegation led by G Parameshwara, who had gone to the Governor’s House, did not get entry, turned back”.

HD Kumaraswamy, Siddaramaiah, Ghulam Nabi Azad, DK Shivakumar and other Congress MLAs went inside the Raj Bhawan!

[Sachin]

I thought with BJP at 100+, JDS will be under pressure to go with BJP. But that doesn't appear to be the case. Unless Amit Shah can engineer a split within JDS.

I don't think A.Shah & N.Modi are so foolish to just let go a chance so easily. Their past behaviours do not give any such indications. It may look that Congress was quick enough to strike a deal with JD(S). And the Congress offer is 20 ministers from INC, and 14 + Chief Minister & Deputy from JD(S) side. Such a proposal would have never gone from BJP side with they winning 100+ seat. For JD(S) the whole election has become a lottery win. The Congress is still struggling for a hard bargain; maximum ministers from their side. I am sure George, Harris et.all all would have to be accomodated. JD(S) will find it tough to run with such a team.

Either the government would collapse with the "seculars" fighting each other, or BJP can fully utilise the disgruntled elements of Congress or the JD(S) to strike a deal. They still retain the rights to decide on which game to play. The INC has offered its "best offer" already.

3. Despite all the noise dorkie and TimesNow were making during the election returns, it seems to me that neither the Lutyen media nor Pappu and his slaves are out.

Lutyen's media is never going to make fun of Ra.Ga. They would remain totally loyal to him, even if BJP had won with absolute majority. They would have ensured that all reasons for defeat would be at the feet of Siddaramiah. And they as a force would be around for some more time.

5. Amit Shah and ModiJi were brilliant but they have got to get their act together for 2019. Karnataka has shown that if the mahathugbandhan can put aside their differences, they can be a formidable force to thwart BJP in 2019

We are blindly assuming that they don't know how the winds are blowing. Let us all remind ourselves; these folks are seasoned politicians and not nursery kids. Observing them, they are also not people who easily give up. A mahathugbandhan at every state is also not really practical. Take for example West Bengal; Mamatha Banerjee is a potential candidate. The commies of the state are not going to vote for her; for that is the kind of beating her partymen have given to the commies. In states like KL also CPI(M) and Congress would have to act like two tough competitors who will fight the elections separately.

The Congress in KA had tried to split the Lingayath folks into two. The "secular" news papers all talked as if this was a great achievement and a sure shot from Siddu & Co. BJP did not make much fuss on the same. The Lingayath community still remained with the BJP.

[Gus]

logically the party which needs lesser heads for majority, will be able to pull that because it has more to give per head, without increasing instability.

congress JDS alliance will only breed grievances and instability.

lingayat angle is there...if congress JDS come together to keep lingayat BSY out despite a mandate that can be arguably interpreted as favoring BSY ..lingayats maybe gone forever from congress camp.

[KL Dubey]

Ram Madhav
‏
Verified account

@rammadhavbjp
10h10 hours ago

In Karnataka, TDP n Chandrababu Naidu have used all tactics to dissuade Telugu voters from supporting BJP. But in Hyderabad Karnataka where most Telugus live, BJP has increased its tally from 6 to 20+. People have rejected CBN’s politics. Our Southward March has begun.

Yes indeed, the antics of "Chandranna" have entirely failed. It is good that this snake has left NDA - hopefully forever, unless he comes crawling back.

Similarly, didn't Shiva Sena contest some 50 seats in "Mumbai Karnataka" area ? Anyone got their deposit back ? It seems like Uddhav did not learn much from losing all deposits in Gujarat 2017.

[KL Dubey]

Meanwhile TOI reports:

AAP draws a blank in Karnataka polls

AAP candidates forfeited deposit in all 29 seats the party contested in Karnataka. Prithvi Reddy, AAP's Karnataka convenor, who took on Congress heavyweight KJ George from the Sarvagnanagar Assembly constituency, could barely manage 1,861 votes coming a distant fourth. "We were washed out but I cannot understand why."

It looks like a lot of jokers (AAP, SS, and indirectly TDP) have been trying their luck in KA. ECI has got a good chunk of change in deposits from these fellows.

[KL Dubey]

rNDTV, but still worth posting:

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/karnata ... -t-1852020

"There are at least half a dozen chief ministerial candidates in our party," said G Parameshwara, a senior Congress leader from Karnataka, cheerfully confirming his own spot in the league of would-be's. "Of course, since the last election, I have been portrayed as an alternative or one of the chief ministerial candidates... let me also take a chance," the politician, who heads the Congress in the southern state, said.
...
However, the senior leader said, the JDS must be "reasonable" in what it demands -- for example, he said, it can at best seek the post of deputy chief minister.

I wonder how many of the Congi MLAs must be taking the sellout to the JD(S), and vice versa. Keeping fingaz crossed. Seems like the first step wpuld be for the Guvnor (NDA-appointed, RSS background, etc etc) giving BSY the first shot at goremint formation.

[Primus]

In some ways I am actually pleased with the results although a clear majority of say 120 or more for the BJP would have been like a big coke hit

There are still plenty of positives IMHO:

1. Big slap in the face for the congress
2. Moral victory for the BJP
3. Opportunity to form the government still exists and may well happen with AS arranging things behind the scenes.
4. Even if BJP is in the opposition they will be strong enough to prevent rampant corruption and anti-Hindu acts
5. Quite likely the coalition between Congress and JDS won't last, opening up the door once again for the BJP
6. Most importantly, it keeps the BJP from developing a sense of invincibility and the inevitable complacency that sets in. I strongly feel the loss of Gorakhpur in the by-election was simply due to this.
7. Keeping the BJP on its toes means more effort put into 2019 and going into it 'eyes wide open'. Greater likelihood then of not being blind-sided.

[Raj Malhotra]

I think BJP/RSS would notice that they lost almost a dozen seats due to NOTA.

[Hari Seldon]

I think BJP/RSS would notice that they lost almost a dozen seats due to NOTA.

Which dozen? What were the margins like otherwise? Just curious.

[Singha]

anecdotal feedback from a friends maid in belanduru ORR here is congis paid her 2k and bjp 1k.
i would imagine at village & urban pocket level a lot of the votes are paid votes and not based on any ideology

when people themselves are this transactional and make up 60-70% of the electorate one has to worry....

it means apart from paid votes, BJP has to heavily mobilize its core middle class voters and make it count .... the congis/JDS already have their mainority vote banks. if they do seat sharing in 2019 and contest 1:1 in all seats vs BJP will pose a formidable challenge.

in KA that is possible in KL,WB the TMC and Congis and CPM will not agree to seat share. in UP the SP BSP will not seat share imo .... but in parts of the country this can happen

[Sachin]

Yes indeed, the antics of "Chandranna" have entirely failed. It is good that this snake has left NDA - hopefully forever, unless he comes crawling back.

A friend of mine from AP (pro-Sangh) was saying that Chandranna tried his best to scuttle BJP, but there was some discrete support to the Reddy brothers from Jagan Mohan Reddy (even though a crypto-X'ian).

AAP draws a blank in Karnataka polls

AAP could do a joint research & analysis with another champ, the CPI(M). In many places the main competitor for CPI(M) was NOTA, and they even lost to that. I was reading through a facebook post of M.B Rajesh an MP whose main focus was always beef. Chap was talking about the "large turnout" for two of his rallies in Eastern Bangalore. Now people are taking turns to remind him of the votes the candidates got.

[madhub]

I think Bangalore has destroyed itself. If they have voted decisively (may be BJP) it would have been better. Now that because of it now JDS will be in power. JDS will milk Blore and develop rural. Because of lazy behavior of bloriena they can further take more rest on roads.
Congress is making a stupid move of supporting JDS. This will make sure HDK will become more popular in north Karnataka too. Which will make congress completely irrelevant in future. It will be JDS vs BJP in future. I do not know how congress will get benefit from this?

[Sachin]

Got this from a Malayalam web site:-
1. One independent MLA has joined BJP.
2. All Congress & JD(S) MLAs have not turned up to their party meetings. Looks like their "arrest" and "remand" at some resorts in other states, have still not materialized.
3. The "national" party CPI(M) contested in 19 seats and their overall vote share of them was 0.2%. You all can share this good news with your Kerala friends & colleagues.

[Hari Seldon]

Subramanian Swamy
‏
Verified account

@Swamy39
46m46 minutes ago
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Sources tell me that Gov of K’taka will invite Yeddy

[Vikas]

BJP formed govt even when they were not the largest party. What makes people and Luyten think that they will let go of this historic opportunity and not form govt in KA. Also read up on Governor of KA when he was BJP head in Gujarat, how 'humble farmer' had dismissed BJP govt.

[Ashish Raval]

Disappointed with the fractured mandate. Nevertheless the thing that sprung up my mind after the result is 'Reservation' exactly has same feeling to millions of well deserved candidates sitting in a queue with 90 percentage and a guy with 60 percent marks is coming out of the admission hall smiling after securing admissions in Medicine.

[Indrad]

big drama unfolding
-Con + JD S stake claim with lett-er of support from MLAs, no missing apparently
-BJP staked claim earlier citing support as well
-eyes on governor
-Entire entourage of delhi congress in Blore: if not invited they will stage dharna in front of raj bhavan
-Kapil Sibbal & Co stay back in Delhi: SC to be contacted if they are not invited
-BJP MLAs also getting poached? (A resort booked for them as per times now)

[Sachin]

-Kapil Sibbal & Co stay back in Delhi: SC to be contacted if they are not invited

From what I read the courts cannot challenge the discretionary powers of Governor on this regard.

-BJP MLAs also getting poached? (A resort booked for them as per times now)

This could be very well a possibility considering the level of politics in KA . But again these folks would also have to be given some plum postings for their "hard work". 20 ministers for Congress + 14 ministers + CM & 2 i/c for JD(S), is the current plan. I am expecting more dramas like no-confidence voting etc.