Primus wrote: ↑Fri Mar 16, 2018 10:54 amRethinking about the UP by-elections, in a way I am glad this happened. Although a big blow psychologically, it serves as a healthy reminder that complacency and over-confidence will bring you down. Several mistakes were made in this election:
1. Wrong candidate against a rabidly caste based voting public Dalits would never vote for a Brahmin
2. Poor efforts by the BJP cadres in promoting their cause - too confident
3. Poor voter turn out by BJP supporters - everyone thought somebody else would go out and vote
4. Under estimation of the power of a combined SP and BSP and the forces aligned along caste lines.
1.2. and 3. are correctable and can potentially overcome 4.
There is no doubt that it will be a difficult battle ahead, and one that the BJP may not win. However, if they do and I believe there is a good chance they will, then the BIF will not recover easily which is why they will put all their might into it. OTOH, if the BJP lose, our dreams of a Dharmic India will be lost forever.
Your point #1 is incorrect. Recall that Mayawati won the 2007 election on a Dalit/Brahmin/Muslim coalition.
Dalits will not vote for Thakurs as Thakurs are considered the main opressors of Dalits as well as other backward castes.