The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

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Aditya_V
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Aditya_V » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:52 pm

abhijit wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:49 pm
And don't even think of conducting election in March.
100% True, Dont try and prepone the elections, wait for the due date.

Prasan
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Prasan » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:16 pm

The lobby within bjp may have worked against yogi to defeat him gorakhpur seat to keep him in check. He is by far the best CM in India currently and comparison are made with Modi.
Yogi be careful

shyamsp
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by shyamsp » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:20 pm

Prasan wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:16 pm
The lobby within bjp may have worked against yogi to defeat him gorakhpur seat to keep him in check. He is by far the best CM in India currently and comparison are made with Modi.
Yogi be careful
Seems or likely so. He got pan-India appeal among Hindus with even some expectations of he may be next PM.

abhijit
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by abhijit » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:24 pm

Supratik wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:54 pm
Most dalits voted BSP in 2014, 2017. BJP won on FC plus non-Yadav OBCs.
High % of non jatav which comprises almost 40% of dalit community voted BJP in 2014 and 2017. Need to understand whether they are still with BJP given both Gorakhpur and Phulpur has considerable non jatav votes. Looking at the result it seems they have gone back to BSP.

I may be wrong, but will not surprise knowing BJP is THE ONLY party in the world which after coming to power simply shove aside its voters base and run after those who have not voted or really have slim chance to vote them in future. Anything is possible with BJP.

Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Supratik » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:31 pm

Check wiki. Maywati's vote has dipped only 3-4%. Dalits are still voting BSP only.

Rahul M
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Rahul M » Wed Mar 14, 2018 2:40 pm

these are all excuses. let's wait for vote break-up before we start post mortem.

sagrawal
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by sagrawal » Wed Mar 14, 2018 3:11 pm

Sachin wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:48 pm
One thing is that most of us, we all rely on MSM to know much more about other states. Any body who reads MSM may now feel that UP is lost for ever. But I don't know how many of us are from UP, to know the pulse of the local people there.
I am visiting my parents in Mathura and got a chance to talk to many ola/uber cab, auto drivers in Noida and Ghaziabad. They all mentioned 24 hour power supply, improved law and order and cleanness as Yogi ji's major achievement.

Everyone I met so far sees Yogi as next PM. For many common people at least in Mathura, by election results do not matter at all.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:10 pm

Sachin wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:21 pm
+1. It is a good time for BJP to introspect, and I am sure being a political party in business they would be doing it. I too get a feeling that Yogi, perhaps assumed victory for BJP at Gorakhpur etc. was given. He may not have spent much time checking up things there. The C-System is now busy working on cobbling up an alliance. "20 parties have 'informal chats' at Sonia’s dinner" ; is the latest event. Only person who seems to have missed the event is Com. Yechuri who may be busy with housekeeping work at the Congress' party office.
mayawati is the elephant missing in the room.

Indrad
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:24 pm

from twitter
Gorakhpur results are shocking. BJP never lost it even when they faced worse of times in UP. 29 yrs continuously it was represented by Mahanth of Gorakhnath temple. Looks like infighting cost the seat to BJP.
Upendra Shukla is a close associate of Shiv Pratap Shukla who is a bitter adversary of Yogi. Looks like temple and Hindu Yuva Vahini either stayed indifferent or worked against him. Unbelievable that Gorakhpur is going to have a non BJP MP
Apparently, Yogi wanted another priest of temple to contest but BJP central leadership didn't listen. Those saying impact of SP-BSP alliance, no, BJP never lost it during 90s also when SP BSP were together. Yogi had got ~52% votes in 2014! It's not alliance but infighting.
https://hindi.news18.com/news/uttar-pra ... 02973.html

Keshav Maurya has said he didn't expect arithmetic transfer of SP & BSP votes to each other like this. This was Bihar return.

Primus
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Primus » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:24 pm

It is indeed nauseating to see what's going on in the MSM, even Arnab is having a field day with Patra.

interesting then to see Modi's response: Can't find the original video so this will have to do. I keep wondering how anybody with a sane mind and India's best interests at heart cannot feel moved by the sincerity in his words.


Indrad
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:41 pm

Suraj ji who is a moderator on Bharat rakshak had written this long back on BRF; to be in alliance it is important that leaders of two parties are able to sit across table without slapping each other. Wish he was here to comment if he still thinks the same.

there is a complete sense of orgasm on MSM: look at t/l of usual suspects ...one wonders what will be it like if congoons ever return to power (very unlikely).

One thing is for sure and it is apparent from anti BJP trolls on this thread as well.
They know people will never stand for leaders they want to be in power (Rahul/Kejriwal/Yechuri/Lalu/Mamta): only way forward is keep attacking Modi & try to stick mud on him there by discouraging voters to come out on fateful day.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by hanumadu » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:18 pm

Yashwant Deshmukh

Verified account

@YRDeshmukh
2h2 hours ago
More
#FinalResult #Gorakhpur
SP goes up from 22% to 49%
Identical to Phulpur; SP gets +27% with 17% transfer from BSP
BJP swings to 47% from 52%; Negative swing of -5% only.
The SP gains are coming mostly from BSP & INC; not much from BJP.
So #Gorakhpur was mostly Arithmetic.

syam
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by syam » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:19 pm

~already posted.
Image

Looks like it is repeat of Bihar.

Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Supratik » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:41 pm

What is the break-up for Phulpur. It seems even with arithmetic BJP would have won if it had been able to mobilize its voters.

Rahul M
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Rahul M » Wed Mar 14, 2018 5:45 pm

so clearly, mahathugbandhan + BJP's lack of effort/overconfidence saw them concede the seats. silver lining is that there might be lessons worth learning in this, for Shah & co. on the downside, this being a prestige seat mahathagbandhan gets a additional life.

hanumadu
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by hanumadu » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:02 pm

Isn't 47% turnout too low? It must have contributed to the defeat to some extent. The margin of defeat, 2%, shows how crucial the low voter turnout was.

chadev
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by chadev » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:07 pm

This mahathugbandhan didn't even campaign in many areas, shows how voters had already made up their mind. That doesn't bode well for BJP. So >15% Muslims in states, and complete opposition unity, I don't see how BJP can win.

Rahul M
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Rahul M » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:24 pm

Phulpur data.
https://twitter.com/YRDeshmukh/status/9 ... 6756435969

#FinalResult #Phulpur SP goes up from 20% to 47% SP gets +27% with 17% transfer from BSP BJP crashes to 39% from 52%; Negative swing of -13% So the SP gains are coming approx 2/3rd from BSP and 1/3rd from BJP. Clearly, Its not just Arithmetic; but also Chemistry with voters.

Rahul M
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Rahul M » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:25 pm

chadev wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:07 pm
This mahathugbandhan didn't even campaign in many areas, shows how voters had already made up their mind. That doesn't bode well for BJP. So >15% Muslims in states, and complete opposition unity, I don't see how BJP can win.
source ?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Trilobite » Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:56 pm

Gus wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:27 pm
maran gets discharged from illegal telephone exchange case.

it was such an egregious violation with material evidence...the fellow had tunnels dug with cables connecting and making a private telephone exchange ....and he gets away with it.

this is the state of our prosecution and justice system.

Come on, you don't think the "caged parrot" played its role? After all this was a CBI's court similar to the CBI's court which acquitted Raja and Kanimozhi.

crams
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by crams » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:02 pm

Exactly Rahul M. Guy lets not kid ourselves on the role of caste in what happened in UP and earlier in Bihar. This blowout of BJP was due to an out and out caste combination of SP and BSP. Can't believe every opposition fraud claims BJP is a 'divisive' party, and yet they use the most divisive banes of Indian society, caste, to unseat BJP.

I always suspected this, but changed my mind a tad after 2014, that BJP was shedding its upper caste Hindu image and was making inroads into SC/ST, Dalit, and other castes. But I am not sure anymore. The only hope for BJP is that the caste crucible is so diverse that the non upper castes are at each other's throats even though there some semblance of unity now, and therein lies BJP's opportunity to stitch together alliances. But if BJP has to dilute its core pan India Hinduthva ideology, then whats the difference between BJP and these opposition frauds?

One needs to see what kind of messages are spread by the C-system in mohallas. I won't be surprised if there are messages going around that BJP is an upper caste party out to bottle up everybody else etc. This UP result is so shocking that just a year ago, YogiJi won in a breathtaking landslide as did BJP in 2014, and I cannot understand how there can be such a swing away from them so fast, short of some kind social engineering.

la.khan
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by la.khan » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:09 pm

My doh paise on the next general elections (whenever they are held).

Go back to NDA-1 govt. in May 2004. I am sure this was looked into but THE single reason NDA lost in May 2004 was not India Shining but due to lack of support/enthusiasm from the RSS. The three issues that the RSS wanted resolved were Rama Janma Bhoomi at Ayodhya, Uniform Civil Code, and abrogation of Article 370. Since none of these were met, as of May 2004, the RSS must have felt there is no difference between ABV govt and other govts. When the RSS approached ABV for action on these causes, ABV must have pleaded inability to move on with these items as he headed a coalition and these items have no resonance with BJP's alliance partners. The RSS was disappointed with ABV/BJP's attitude and made its displeasure known by sitting out of the election in May 2004 :)) :facepalm:

In the period between 2004-14, each RSS leader and cadre must have seen with his/her own eyes how this country was looted, pillaged, plundered in broad daylight. Forget about Rama Janma Bhoomi at Ayodhya, Uniform Civil Code, and abrogation of Article 370, UPA foisted on this country RTE, saffron terror, NCMEI, Paki terror, 2G, CWG, coal scam etc. :evil: <sarcasm on>I hope the RSS enjoyed loot & plunder of Mother India as much as UPA enjoyed looting & plundering India.<sarcasm off>

Coming to the present, I just hope that RSS realised that if BJP does not deliver on RJB, UCC, Art.370, nobody else will. If the RSS gets miffed again over its pet causes and does not help BJP in getting re-elected (whenever the next general elections are held), we all must prepared to witness gravest depradations visit Sanaatana Dharma. However, I for one, am not despondent or pessimistic about NaMo/AS/BJP's chances at the hustings. In fact, if the RSS chief can publicly commit RSS cadre to help the BJP in the next general elections, I am willing to stick my neck out and predict a BJP led govt. However, if the RSS is indifferent towards the BJP, I am willing to stick my neck out and predict that the next govt will NOT be a BJP govt.

There are two advantages the BJP has over every other political party in the entire country (they could be more but these are what I could come up with).
1. Organization: This what the RSS brings to the table. There is no political party that has this kind of capability throughout the length & breadth of the country. INC used to have it decades back, during the freedom movement. INC's organization was gutted ever since the days of the original mother-son duo. How does the Cong(I) and its mahathugbandhan allies plan to surmount this challenge? To convince voters in 250 constituencies, you will need a pan India entity with committed cadre who believe in your cause. Who has it? BJP? Cong(I)? Mahathugbandhan?
2. Leadership: BJP has master strategists in NaMo + AS at the helm of affairs. Just look at their record of winning elections after elections. Now, compare that with RaGa's record of winning elections. Also, RaGa is the most prominent face of Cong(I); if this dude can't get votes for Cong(I), nobody else can. So, one man must work his a$$ off to convince voters in close to 250 constituencies to vote for his party/allies. How many people can stand up & say confidently that RaGa can pull this off?

So, while the challenges are many, us Dharmics have our own strengths and must play to them, and have our wits ready 8-)

SSundar
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by SSundar » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:33 pm

Trilobite wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 6:56 pm
Come on, you don't think the "caged parrot" played its role? After all this was a CBI's court similar to the CBI's court which acquitted Raja and Kanimozhi.
Who sits as judge in the CBI court?

Indrad
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:47 pm

During bypolls, a govt or governance paradigm are not issues. Voting is based on local factors.
However, when it comes to choosing governments, BJP wins. https://twitter.com/knowthenation/statu ... 3436945408

Indrad
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:49 pm

@mediacrooks

A staunch BJP Gorakhpuri voter just said... "@BJP4India cannot make a Chu*** of Hindus".... LOL! Take that message very seriously... @NarendraModi @AmitShah... Hindus feel betrayed....coupled with Muslim appeasement. NE elections dont impact UP, Raj or Karnataka...

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