The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

[abhijit]

BJP in trouble in UP by election.

[Sachin]

What I suggested is to replace the box of cable in warehouse or in truck with tempered cables months and years before election is announced.

Such things can only happen in a totalitarian state, where every one can be silenced. The EVMs before the elections are stored in strong rooms provided by the respective states/local elected bodies etc. The security is provided by the state police, and even if there are central police forces involved they work under the state police. For this to work out, the party who needs to win should have total allegiance from every person involved right from the Chief Election Commissioner to the sundry Armed Reserve Police Constable guarding some strong room in a small town. If this was achievable, the "secular" forces would already have tried that.

ECI told that party that they will NOT allow us to replace to even touch any part of EVM except BU buttons !!!

When you are replacing part of the EVM, that machine naturally is not the type of machine which the EC uses in India elections. This is very similar to what AAP tried. They make their own EVM, and they hack that machine . The EC asked them to hack the EVM which EC uses, and also the steps involved should be done after considering the checks & balances currently in place. I mean if Arwind Kejriwal wanted EC to give him an EVM (from their stores), he takes it to his home and he and Manish Sisodia gets a soldering iron and re-solders some new circuits into place; that is not going to happen. That is because in the current checks & balances, removing an EVM from a strong room before or after elections is not possible.

BJP in trouble in UP by election.

Yes, but will that change any political equations drastically? I don't think so. This is a small battle to be lost, when bigger wars require more attention. Off course the "seculars" and MSM would ask Yogi to resign, and then Modi also to resign; but is it the first time they are asking this? . Yes, it gives the other wise sulking commies etc. to rejoice for a while, but don't think any thing would change in the ground.

[abhijit]

Gorakhpur is not something to lose. YA had gained more than 50% votes in previous elections. There could be worrying messages underneath. If it is only because of wrong candidate then bjp has hope to win it again next time.

bypolls results are not the problem but if ignored could be symptoms of undetected problems in long run.

[Trilobite]

Yes, but will that change any political equations drastically? I don't think so. This is a small battle to be lost, when bigger wars require more attention. Off course the "seculars" and MSM would ask Yogi to resign, and then Modi also to resign; but is it the first time they are asking this? . Yes, it gives the other wise sulking commies etc. to rejoice for a while, but don't think any thing would change in the ground.

It does have implication for 2019 though. SP and BSP by coming together have proved that their combined vote is more than BJP and if BJP loses UP in 2019 then it can't come back to power.
Also there is a trend here, BJP after scraping thorough in Gujarat, has lost bypolls in Rajasthan, MP, WB, Odisha, and now likely in UP and Bihar.

[Sachin]

^^ I agree with abhijit & Trilobite; but all said and done the BJP still has got time for course correction. The "seculars" do get a chance to rejoice, and feel that their strategy is saleable. It is for BJP also to realise that a 100% victory always and every time is not a possibility. But I guess that party is already realising it, as we see some or the other new strategy getting revealed at every election time. Tripura was a sure shot victory for the commies, but they are today no where to be seen.

[Trilobite]

Ah but the fact is that this notice was issued becasue of the Bank of Bangladesh fraud that swindled it out of $81M. The fraud was effected using malware scripts that stole credentials. If you read the notice it specifically mentions this fact. The auditing is required to check against this type of attack. Note that this is very different than the Nirav modi where an internal player subverted the system.

But you knew this and are deliberately trying to muddy the waters didnt you?

No muddying the water Saar, you do know that Bangladesh Bank heist was executed by means of SWIFT transfer, don't you? A thorough audit of SWIFT as recommended by RBI could have potentially detected the fraudulent use of SWIFT by Mehul Bhai and Nirav Bhai and saved the poor taxpayers of the nation ~$2 billion.

[Supratik]

First dark clouds on the horizon for the BJP election machinery in UP.

[Supratik]

Low voter turnout. It seems BJP voters and cadre are unhappy in UP.

[Gus]

SP and BSP can come together...but the defenders of civilization cannot.

[Gus]

maran gets discharged from illegal telephone exchange case.

it was such an egregious violation with material evidence...the fellow had tunnels dug with cables connecting and making a private telephone exchange ....and he gets away with it.

this is the state of our prosecution and justice system.

[abhijit]

Low voter turnout. It seems BJP voters and cadre are unhappy in UP.

Problem is deeper than that. Earlier YA managed to not only win but get more than 50% even in lesser turnout. Demography is not changed considerably here. Gorakhpur turnout was respectable 47%. Which means either dalits ditched BJP, or upper caste was not happy with the candidate or both. if it is only candidate issue (which I think it is) then the error can be corrected. If dalits are going back to BSP then big issue.

[Supratik]

Uttarkhand to bring in Freedom of Religion (similar) bill.

http://www.opindia.com/2018/03/uttarakh ... e-offence/

[Supratik]

Praveen Patil feels BJP is being seen as a FC party. Loosing the seats of CM and Dy-CM is big. This is the problem why I was earlier resistant to Yogi being appointed CM as UP is deeply casteist and Hindutva has not taken root. Yogi should have outreach programs to OBCs and SCs. He needs to move fast as only one year left.

[Gus]

the opposition is always on target.

[abhijit]

If dalits in UP go back to BSP then bye bye 2019. BJP can kick middleclass and still win but 30% dalits are game changer.

[Supratik]

Yes, time is limited. Yogi has made no serious efforts to target his core voting block except in law and order. It seems even the loan waiver did not help.

[Supratik]

Most dalits voted BSP in 2014, 2017. BJP won on FC plus non-Yadav OBCs.

[Aditya_V]

Wasn't the voter turnout less in this election, which could also mean BJP conserved some of its war chests, why SP- BSP would used up more funds for these By polls as it was more important for them.

Also, in our country just like Dehli and Bihar in 2015 and 2004 experience, people come out and vote only if they see there is danger of the other party winning. While it is a warning, I prefer this to the complacency which was build in the past.'

The C-system is not dead, it is very much alive.

[Primus]

It is a sorry commentary on the state of the country, if people cannot see that YA in UP has indeed made progress for the betterment of the people. If the voters still come out and vote for a party that has looted them for years but is promising continuation of the same old caste divisions then God help the nation.

SHQ was in India recently. She tells me that the middle-class has started thinking of Modi as an autocrat. Of course they have forgotten the Queen and her minions who put up a puppet and ran the country into the ground in the process. It seems that Hindu causes do not matter as these people are Hindus by convenience. More important is jobs and the economy but they also fail to realize that UPA will fail them again.

As has been said before, the middle and upper classes are not happy with the uplifting of the poor masses, which is what Modi has been striving for. They would prefer the loot and corruption as long as it keeps them above the 'servants' and rickshawallahs. No wonder we have the history we do.

All may not be lost - yet. That is all one can hope for.

[Sachin]

Also, in our country just like Dehli and Bihar in 2015 and 2004 experience, people come out and vote only if they see there is danger of the other party winning. While it is a warning, I prefer this to the complacency which was build in the past.'
...
The C-system is not dead, it is very much alive.

+1. It is a good time for BJP to introspect, and I am sure being a political party in business they would be doing it. I too get a feeling that Yogi, perhaps assumed victory for BJP at Gorakhpur etc. was given. He may not have spent much time checking up things there. The C-System is now busy working on cobbling up an alliance. "20 parties have 'informal chats' at Sonia’s dinner" ; is the latest event. Only person who seems to have missed the event is Com. Yechuri who may be busy with housekeeping work at the Congress' party office.

[crams]

It will be disgusting to watch Lutyen media next couple of days. This shock defeat in UP will surely galvanize the traitors. Ackk Thoo. But I think all is not lost, and at least BJP strategists need to understand the real loss. But it does seem to me that Hinduthva has its limits in the sense that I get that sinking feeling that caste divisions and fissures are so deep that many times impossible to bridge under the Hinduthva banner alone. But one need does need to understand as to how the same people who voted for YogiJi just a year ago dumped him? Were they expecting a miracle or what? Between now and 2019 general elections, BJP needs several headline grabbing achievements to tout, incremental improvements won't cut it. After BJP returns to power, more structural reforms etc can be implemented. If this is the beginning of the end of BJP, then it is tantamount to the beginning of the end of India. Make no mistake about no matter what the bloody Luyten pukes and opposition traitors claim.

[Chandragupta]

Low voter turnout. It seems BJP voters and cadre are unhappy in UP.

Unhappy with whaaaat?

The cadre screamed for Yogi, they got him. The voters wanted rule of law, they got it. What else do they want?

I don't buy this unhappy theory. Either it is caste at play or BJP intentionally pulled back.

[Aditya_V]

Most people with regular work dont vote in By polls, only those highly motivated, provided transport etc do.. the oposition needed this victory so opened their war chests, in fact this helps in not letting complacency creep in. And remember 2004 where many BJP voters stayed at home in summer since everyone took it easy. It is better that people see the kind of comments opposition makes after this victory so complacency does not build up.

The biggest enemy of BJP in 2019 is complacency. Lets see how the crucial MP, Chatisgarh, Rajastan elections go this December. BJP if its is a smart electroal party will not open the treasury to farmers and other key segments to keep them happy over the next 1 year.

What can win make BJP win over the next year.

1) Making sure benefits , direct cash transfer, subsdies reach the poor and good MSP price for farmers.
2) A lock on the previous corrupt money being available to opposition politicos during elections.
3) No more disruptive events like GST
4) Playing up int he electorate that SP, INC , NAC gang are going to come in. Some visuals of Leftist boasting will help.

[Sachin]

As has been said before, the middle and upper classes are not happy with the uplifting of the poor masses, which is what Modi has been striving for. They would prefer the loot and corruption as long as it keeps them above the 'servants' and rickshawallahs.

+1. From what I have seen in my own social circle, any body who has a "stablised life" (ancestral property, secured job, running business etc.) generally wish to have INC to run the show. Because INC has the best machinery to keep the status-quo. For this group of people, they need poorer people to be their servants and odd-job boys. The communists and other social upliftment champs also actually require poor people by truck loads. Because if there are no poor people, what social upliftment (and filling their own pockets) can happen? Idologies like communism will be the first to die, in case people's living standards improve. So we have two big groups who want to see India and the average Indian remain poor. It is a matter for that groups' survival.

But it does seem to me that Hinduthva has its limits in the sense that I get that sinking feeling that caste divisions and fissures are so deep that many times impossible to bridge under the Hinduthva banner alone.

I don't think BJP won the 2014 Lok Sabha elections on Hinduthwa wave alone. One off course was the Modi-wave, but there was also a real calculated scheme from the BJP side, which accounted for every caste/community and state level voting patterns etc. They had come up with custom solutions for pretty much every constituency. At that point of time they realised that the "seculars" were not united and used that to take the maximum lead. That same strategy may not work any more (Bihar proved it, and now UP by-polls also prove it). But we must also note that the Bihar thugbandhan was the first to flop as well.

I don't buy this unhappy theory. Either it is caste at play or BJP intentionally pulled back.

The findings perhaps may only come out once the polling patterns etc. are identified. Every political party does that. I don't know why BJP should intentionally pull back, but one reason could be testing the complacency factor. If it is caste at play, I am sure the local BJP-wallahs would also know why certain castes behaved in a specific way.

One thing is that most of us, we all rely on MSM to know much more about other states. Any body who reads MSM may now feel that UP is lost for ever. But I don't know how many of us are from UP, to know the pulse of the local people there. Same goes for RJ, MH etc. In our own state, we would certainly get alternate view points mainly through friends, social media groups etc. Think about the Tripura elections. We all relied on MSM, who painted a picture that CPI(M) was winning in Tripura. But the spokesperson of BJP was sure of victory, as his source of information was his own trusted workers sitting right there in the polling booths.

[abhijit]

And don't even think of conducting election in March.