The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

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shravanp
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by shravanp » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:34 pm

abhik wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:52 pm
Congress mukt Bharat will not happen with them being removed from power, they will have to be removed from the opposition space too. Once they are reduced to the state they are in UP, Bihar etc in rest of the country only then they will become irrelevant. So winning elections is not enough, BJP will have to engineer new regional opposition parties also.
Sometimes I do wonder what exactly "Congress mukt Bharat" mean. Simply to vote out Congoons? Or to systematically dismantle their ecosystem? Cuz it's the later is a formidable challenge to Modi, and it may require more than 1 or 2 Modis. If it's just voting out Congress, that's really not a big deal cuz they can sow enough seeds of dissensions that they can get back simply based on lowest common denominators. That's how it has always worked for Congress. Kal Chiron had an interesting analogy on this. Refered Modi to Ghatotkacha, and the real battle is later on. Don't know who would be Arjun.

syam
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by syam » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:34 pm

Can someone tell us what happened to our Rahul Mehthaji. He also contested in election.

Rahul M
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Rahul M » Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:51 pm

Dilbu wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:52 am
BJP will lose onlee :)) :)) :))
THIS.
...is the reason bhajpa finally snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.
thx dilbullah ! ;)

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by achoudhury » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:20 pm

This Gujrat election will be remembered for many things in time to come. There are so many things which will need micro analysis as eventually it was seat by seat fist fight except in city strongholds on BJP where BJP's margin of victory is impressive. But there are few key take aways. Caste Politics is here to stay, howsoever , we might wish it away. India's second most important identity marker can only be trumped by Hindutva. Sans an overriding factor of Hindutva, Hindus will fragment in the filthy confines of Caste. Development is fine but it is not even a distant challenger to Caste as yet. Just look at the Gujrat, villages with 24X7 electricity, pucca roads, water in a distant dry parched land, reasonable and improving health and education situation, and still Patels , the most dominant and prosperous caste, voted en masse against BJP.

Second key take away is that Modi remains the only potent arrow in BJP's quiver. This election was for taking by Congress with its blatant pandering to Casteism and Patels completely walking away from BJP. BJP wont have reached even 50 but for middle class's faith in Modi. He single handedly won Gujrat for BJP. GST, DeMo were not factors but rather +ve for BJP as midlle class saw through the short term pain and grasped the long term positive implications of these reforms. This shows that economic reform will find support if done with honest intentions.

For BJP, it should be now crystal clear that Development alone will not see them through 2019. They will need Moditva i.e. Hindutva+Development. In this backdrop, RJB is critical. They should make sure that SC does day to day hearing and gives a verdict by March-April and if not then bring a legislation to build Ram temple. Most likely, it will fail but everyone who is hiding behind SC will be exposed and people will know who stands where.

In the end, salute to the people of Gujrat. This was the most important election after 2014 when almost everything was arrayed against BJP and future of India was at stake. Even if,just by the skin of it, It was victorious. Jai Garvi Gujrat.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Prasan » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:25 pm

https://youtu.be/XbphQ5QGkM8

Yogi Adityanath Sister who sells flower

Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Supratik » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:37 pm

Patels did not vote en masse against BJP except in rural areas. In urban Patel areas BJP has done well. Urban areas are solidly BJP. It is rural areas where BJP is weaker and where caste matters.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by chetak » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:53 pm

Supratik wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:37 pm
Patels did not vote en masse against BJP except in rural areas. In urban Patel areas BJP has done well. Urban areas are solidly BJP. It is rural areas where BJP is weaker and where caste matters.
The congis have actually angered multiple groups by cosying up to the patels.

These guys were among the most energetic of the lot in 2002.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by abhijit » Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:57 pm

Key is BJP now has 5 years (and 1 for general election) to win back the lost votes while in power.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sunny » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:01 pm

syam wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:34 pm
Can someone tell us what happened to our Rahul Mehthaji. He also contested in election.
Image

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by SSundar » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:07 pm

Good news! Dr. Pravin Patil 5Forty3 is alive and back. Has not explained his absence.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by chetak » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:08 pm

Seems like the aap guys have lost their deposit in all 11 constituencies they contested.

best performance yet.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by SSundar » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:09 pm

I am going to predict that Cong will retain KA and possibly take Rajasthan. MP could be like Gujarat.

achoudhury
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by achoudhury » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:14 pm

Supratik wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 3:37 pm
Patels did not vote en masse against BJP except in rural areas. In urban Patel areas BJP has done well. Urban areas are solidly BJP. It is rural areas where BJP is weaker and where caste matters.
I think in urban areas also Patels have voted largely against BJP or split it with Congis. BJP's vote share in urban areas were 65%+ in 2014, they have lost close to 12-13% votes. These are Patel votes.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by ritz82 » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:16 pm

Indrad wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 9:27 am
poor implementation of GST costed dearly and notebandi as well..!!
If Amit Shah had not toured Guj extensively around Diwali and fixed GST rates etc this was a gone game.
my own friends based in India who have small businesses are suffering miserably after demo and GST as companies they supply oart purja for are not able to pay..!
My friend. Nothing can be further than truth. This is with only those people who want to stay out of mainstream and continue with black economy

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by shravanp » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:21 pm

SSundar wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:09 pm
I am going to predict that Cong will retain KA and possibly take Rajasthan. MP could be like Gujarat.
I think Mamaji(Shivraj Singh Chauhan) has his own charm in MP, notwithstanding Modi.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:23 pm

yes it is very likely they are dependent on some sort of money exchange which was not documented with govt..
but Amit Shah taking care of Surat & meeting jewellery lobby, fixing GST hitches is absolutely true.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:24 pm

shravanp wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:21 pm
SSundar wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:09 pm
I am going to predict that Cong will retain KA and possibly take Rajasthan. MP could be like Gujarat.
I think Mamaji(Shivraj Singh Chauhan) has his own charm in MP, notwithstanding Modi.
KA will go to BJP
Mama will retain MP
Raj is gone, so is Jharkhand.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by MehtaRahulC » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:27 pm

KL Dubey wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:43 am
I hope the "other" Rahul of the Gujarat election (our very own Mehtaji) managed to get his deposit back.
Gujarat elections offer exteremely good news for (most) BRFites - namely the anti-RM-elements on BRF
.
My result was very very poor.
.
572 votes out of 242,000 polled votes in Ghatlodia
462 votes out of 140,000 polled votes in Thakkarbapanagr
(I was contesting from two constituencies).
.
This is way below may-2014 : 9700 votes out of some 14 lakh polled votes
.
And also way below dec-2012 : 2400 votes out of 210,000 polled votes.
.
ALL NUMBERS ARE APPROX NUMBERS !!
.
---
.
And getting back deposit needs 10% of polled votes (or 15%?). And in Gujarat , rarely a #3 or #4 gets deposit back.
.
---
.
I was hoping to get 4000 votes. But didnt happen
.
Vote shares of all #3 and #4 candidates across Gujarat went down this time because all pro-BJP votes consolidated under BJP and all anti-BJP votes consolidated under congress. So voters werent looking for any #3 or #4 to vote for. Those who hated BJP / congress just went for NOTA.
.
So pls celebrate the good news.
.
---
.
The only positive development I see is that -- this time 3 more persons decided to contest with - Naranpura, Manunagar and Botad consitituencies. They too got only 250, 450 and 250 votes. And all 4 of us have decided to contest LS may-2019 elections as well. Hopefully, I will have my party registered by apr-2019. And some 20 have agreed to contested in Rajasthan sep-2018 assembly elections. Lets see how many finally contest. So we wont have "independent" label and will have party labels.
.
---
.
That was about me. Lets talk about Gujarat and India
.
There is a deep mess in Gujarat and India. The best proof of the mess is victory of Missionary agent BIF Jignesh Mevani in birthtown of Modiji - Vadgam constuency. And that constituency has less than 20% dalit voters and it is NOT SC reserved. Jignesh Mevani was openly supported by congress. And Mevani covertly but openly says that "Dalits are NOT Hindus". And yet UC voters voted for him in large numbers. This shows the extent to which BJP = RSS has lost support in poor UCs. And RSS fielded and funded 5 dalits to cut his votes. But all that failed and Missionary agent Mevani won and got 20000 more votes than RSS = BJP.
.
Modiji and RSS = BJP have made a huge mess across India and Gujarat poll shows that in black and white. RSS-workers are happy that RSS will have CM in Gujarat. And thats all RSS-workers care about - positions.
.
Those who think that RSS = BJP will learn a lesson are mistaken. BJP = RSS is now beyond repair. Course correction happens when people have moral compass or some nationalism left. When there is no moral compass or no nationalism left, victory or defeat --- there is NO course correction. So Modiji and RSS-workers have made a mess, and mess will only get worse and worse. Let FRDI come and mess will worsen. And Missionary agents like Jignesh Mevani will only become more powerful because of mess Modiji and RSS-workers are making.
.
India is on its way to become a large sized Philippines -- and Modiji and RSS-workers will only make people unnotice this trend.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Rahul M » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:43 pm

my take on this performance.
let's recount the main factors in this election, in no particular order, anti-incumbency, vikas, social fissures, raga's charisma & the saurashtra floods.

anti-incumbency against the bjp is two-fold, against the 2 decades old rule in the state and the 3 year old one at centre. at the state level, the insipid leadership certainly dented the chances of a stronger bjp performance.
for central policies like DeMo & GST, bjp had its share of bad and good luck. the bad luck is due to the fact that the Guj elections came at a time when the economy has just left its state of flux and begun its recovery cycle. IMHO much of the social angst whether the patidar agitation or the lack of rural support comes from the fact that people are not yet seeing the benefits or 'achche din' that they hoped. the better educated are also better informed and thus more patient than the people who lead a hand to mouth existence. hopefully bjp will have a chance of correcting this by the 2019 elections come along.
bjp's good luck is that it won in spite of not delivering on the economic front (yet). precisely because the election was in its bastion of gujarat. I do not hope for a good result in Raj (reports about Raje have been dismal) or K'taka.

as for vikas, it continues to be a primary plank for the bjp and a lacklustre economy till 2018 will dent its chances for 2019. The bjp under modi is not fighting cong, it is fighting the bjp of 2014. the much touted social fissures in gujarat are nothing new per se, barring the patidar agitation it's all old wine and even the patidar agitation will lose its steam if there's a steady uptick in jobs.

raga's so called charishma, is a HUGE positive for the bjp in the long run. there's a concept in cricket that if an opponent bowler is giving you 'hit me' balls you do not hit him so much that the fielding captain takes him off the attack. rather, you would pretend to struggle just enough for the fielding captain to remain interested. all the while you milk him for runs. for sometime I have been afraid that the cong will finally realize what a deadwood raga is and reinvent itself without the gandhis. there is no dearth of smart folk in the AIF camp and a capable leader there would have made modi's job that much harder. that cong performed well due to supposedly raga factor (but really due to a host of unconnected factors,viz. lacklustre economy, 2 decades old anti-incumbency, floods etc) means raga is going to lead the cong for a long time to come, likely to a cong-mukt bharat.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by crams » Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:53 pm

I think BJP should seriously consider throwing foul-mouth losers like Arun Shourie and Yashwant Sinha out of the party. And put shot gun on notice too. Likwise, ask Nitishwa to act against slime balls like Pawan Verma

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sachin » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:23 pm

hanumadu wrote:Its not fair to the BJP to expect them to undo decades of unfair laws to Hindus. It will take time and BJP should be give at least 15 to 20 years to bring change.
Thanks for bringing in the other perspective. Because slowly the mantra seems to be BJP should just become another Ku Klux Klan and just wipe out all the minority communities, change RTE laws, bring in UCC, build Ram temple. And if that does'nt happen the Hindutwavadis would go and vote for Congress (of all people). If this is the common Hindu mindset; then even after 100 years the religion and its people would remain mental slaves of other people. How many Hindutvavadis have even tried smartly exploiting the existing legal provisions to get what they want? It was only after the current government came up, some one even decided to approach the judiciary to get the minority status confirmed on Hindus in a few states. Why is'nt a similar approach taken for RTE law amendment as well? Why is that every thing has to be done by Modi & co alone? I am now getting a feeling the average Hindu joe out there is now expecting every thing to be done by one some one else, and is now even willing to just keep quiet if their egos are all kept intact.
manju wrote:That would put all the state level people to pull up their sleeves and do some real work and not just rely on Modi's charisma.
If indeed the RSS has realised this problem, I hope they are also working on a long term fix. The BJP has a big problem of not having second rung leaders. Congress also has that problem, but they can still rope in some one as their entry criteria is pretty simple. Today the BJP is heavily relying on Modi, just like how Congress one relied on "India is Indira, Indira is India". The BJP needs to quickly bring up in its field officers, and even company level officers rather than just relying on the two generals. Today for many BJP leader it is ; "I am clue less person, but hey look I will ask Modi to fix your problem". For how long can this scheme run?
achoudhury wrote: This election was for taking by Congress with its blatant pandering to Casteism and Patels completely walking away from BJP.
I used to have a feeling that the Brits actually understood India and its religion better, much more than the Indian citizens themselves. They got this understanding to effectively run the country as per their requirements. This "knowledge" also seems to have got passed to the INC quite well. See what is happening in Karnataka? The Congress govt. out there has no problems in opening up another caste based division out there. In that way, they are pretty sure on what they want (even if it is at the nation's expense). How Hindus can be dividied, made to fight each other, how to run an eco system for all the "intellectuals" etc; Congress seems to have a good book on that.
SSundar wrote:I am going to predict that Cong will retain KA and possibly take Rajasthan.
Tend to agree with you on KA state. The BJP leadership also seems to have lost focus, and I see it is the Congress which is now active on the ground. Road shows, mega rallies and opening up of small offices in select areas. My only hope is that D. Gowdru & son actually manages to win, and keep the Congress at bay.
Rahul M wrote:raga's so called charishma, is a HUGE positive for the bjp in the long run. there's a concept in cricket that if an opponent bowler is giving you 'hit me' balls you do not hit him so much that the fielding captain takes him off the attack.
I am also feeling that Ra.Ga is now playing the role of Shikhandi. He is being taken around by others in Congress (with perhaps his own mom leading them). Ra.Ga is just a front end, with the more tough job being done by the more crooked gang from Congress. The crooked gang was earlier floundering because of many surprises from the BJP, but now they have got their wits back. So taking your anology, the "fielding captain" may also know that the bowler is useless, but is just allowed to bowl to perhaps bring down the guard of the batting team.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Gus » Mon Dec 18, 2017 5:56 pm

MahulR - the decline of congress under rahul is in the future, but 2019 is in the way.

He has shown a few things in GJ though (for purposes of this, let's not differentiate between him and his advisers)
- willingness to put in miles. this was a problem before and folks were reluctant to get behind somebody who's reluctant himself to lead
- ability to keep together contradicting allies - hardik, jignesh, alpesh. This can be used as a precursor to BSP-SP seat sharing with Congress and similar MGB across the nation.

2019 is still BJP's to lose, but distance has closed a little bit. opposition did not get their kill, but they have smelled blood.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by akshay kapoor » Mon Dec 18, 2017 6:50 pm

Chandragupta wrote:
Mon Dec 18, 2017 11:21 am
Congress can/did -

a. repealed POTA within a few days of coming to power
b. blatant & in your face Christian proselytization, open invitation for soul harvesters to come and convert Hindus
c. invention of Hindu terrorism & calling it number 1 problem in India
d. shaming of Hindu religion, culture & our gods
e. outright denial of Hindu history
f. out & out appeasement of radical Islamists, sharing stage with them to abuse Hindus openly in front of everyone
g. open colluding with Pakistan
h. anti-army, humiliates our armed forces, calls them gundas, rascals & rapists
i. shielding Muslim dons, terrorists & criminals
j. weakening of Indian armed forces & defenses
k. massive unlimited corruption & loot
l. no less than Pappu said those who go to temples rape

Despite this, Hindus in this country still vote for Congress.

And no one can imagine BJP saying the same things vis a vis Islam -

a. can they bring in another POTA? not even trying
b. they have only been able to put a mall dent in soul harvesting but it still goes on with tacit approval of clowns like Fadanvis/Raje etc
c. Has anyone in BJP has the balls to say Islamic terrorism is number one problem of the world? Instead we have VP & Pres saying all religions are same and exhorting Church to convert some more
d. No balls to even talk about Hindu temples or declaring Ram Sethu as national heritage & do a comprehensive research of Hindu history (which is unjustly called mythology by lutyens historians)

When you put all this and think, the problem is clearly with Hindus, BJP is just a representation and so is Modi.
Sadly there is some truth in this. We are not strategic enough and don’t consolidate our gains. Lack discipline. Lack sangathan. Invaders use us against each other. On the other hand we have fought back and survived in the darkest times. So solution is karma yoga. Let everyone get do his or her bit with commitment and gusto. And sure enough vijayshri will bless us.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by nachiket » Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:07 pm

A few thoughts about the election

I am relieved that the initial trends didn't hold and BJP pulled through. But it is clear that there is a state leadership issue here. BJP hasn't found someone capable of filling Modi's shoes yet. I admit they are huge shoes to fill but they need to get their act together before the next elections.
That said, lack of local leadership may not be as much of a factor in 2019.

Lets hope the economy recovers quickly from GST+Demonetization and the positives of those and other reforms are felt soon in rural areas. This will be crucial in 2019. Or maybe its just me and the India Shining fiasco rankles too much still in my mind.

Hindus in Gujarat seem to be going back to some pre-2002 bad habits with casteism and lack of Hindu consolidation.

Having said that lets not forget that at the end of the day, BJP did retain Gujarat even after 20+ years of anti-incumbency and other headwinds like Patidar agitation, slowing economy etc. A difficult feat no doubt. And they wrested one more state from Congress. I find it hilarious this is still being cheered by the dynasty pasand media hoping for Congress revival. Meanwhile we have gloom and doom and dhoti shivering here. Some things never change. :D

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by shyamsp » Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:22 pm

Rahul Priyankabhai Gandhy achievement! :)

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