The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

[Aditya_V]

Yes, the poorer and lesser educated folks voted for INC, so I guess money power has played a part in INC good performance. Hope the have exhausted a lot of funds by the time 2019 comes.

[Indrad]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 118805.cms

[hanumadu]

I think there is an economic factor in Saurashtra than the patel agitation alone. Its hard to cater to such a large area by water from one dam situated far away from the region. Drinking water may be, but not water for irrigation or industries. Narmada water will not make a significant dent to the economic misfortunes of the Saurashtra region. I don't know if there is a solution for it, but Saurashtra will continue to bleed BJP.

And North Gujarat is BJPs other weak point.

[AdityaM]

This will be a highly unstable BJP govt in Gujarat, with just 9 MLAs to target for horsetrading to pull down the govt
pay 20 Cr to 9 of them and get them to be disqualified and there is pandemonium. Congress is master at this.

[Indrad]

not with namo at centre but if 2019 sees comeback of a khichdi sarkar then God save India!

[Sicanta]

And bring upon themselves wrath of entire state machinery, including central? I don't think any of these mla's will venture here, no matter what Congress tries

[Karthik]

True Indology‏ @TrueIndology Following Following @TrueIndology
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While BJP has a fantastic vote share, its performance in the reserved tribal belt has been dismal, bagging just 7/28 seats. This region voted for Modi in 2002. Many dubious foreign NGOs have been very active in this region since then

[manju]

http://www.republicworld.com/livetv

modi live on tv

[chetak]

Not to Forget to Brand Hindus as Terrorists with False evidence and realease 25 Hard core Jihadis, planning to give Pakis Kashmir then Siachen, Su-30 fleet at 30%, no artillery purchase, LCA in doldrums- tied the hands of commanders at LOC, shaming Army generals like VK singh. Increase in chinese imports by 1200% in 8 years. Create huge NPA's.

of 180 seats in Guj, 110 are rural: BJP performed poorly in them.
Do you think they bother about these issues mentioned?

honestly I have no clue how to break caste dragnet! Hindus are by nature docile and not rabid right wingers Islamic radical type..accept that.

many parts of rural guj have some water problem or the other. The other big issue is the MSP for things like cotton etc. Ever rising MSPs will very naturally lead to demands from all other states for increased MSP for grains etc leading to rise in prices of food items as well as spiking inflation along with all it's attendant problems.

The commies are pushing for increased MSPs on a cost plus basis, meaning that the MSP should include all input costs as well as a good profit margin built into the MSP and also that all the farmer's output should mandatorily be purchased by the govt even when the market prices for the same may e much lower.

They are all silent on what the govt should do with the expensively purchased farm produce.

so, instead of a market driven economy, we should go back to an Indian version of the old soviet era economy, minus the gulags and siberia.

[Supratik]

BJP increased its vote share to 50% plus compared to 2012 but seat conversion was poor. Maybe bad candidate selection. State leadership is insipid. Need to put someone young as CM to take off load. Dhumal loosing in HP is good. Young leadership should become CM and try to break election cycle.

[crams]

Guys more later but my quick take: Looking at the Gujarat results, Hindu consolidation is still a pipe dream. The caste contradictions are too deep and only an economic miracle make Hinduthva attractive across the board. Also, with the kind of fawning support Pappu got, Cong Mukt bharat is also a pipe dream. So Amit Shah and Co have to come up with a blended message of 3 themes: 1) Hinduthva, 2) Corruption free, and 3) Development. Any one alone is not enough.

But like all nationalists, I am relived that at least BJP pulled through. Had the initial trends held and Pappu and his slaves actually, won, India would have been in turmoil by now. Congoons would have gone for the kill.

[manju]

some RSS folks I talked to were please that the results were close, one even suggesting, he wished BJP just got 93..

That would put all the state level people to pull up their sleeves and do some real work and not just rely on Modi's charisma.

[hanumadu]

For people looking for silver linings:

Good Governance‏
@sri9011
43m43 minutes ago
Yashwant Deshmukh on #GujaratVerdict: "Congress gained Patel votes.These can go back to BJP anytime. However, BJP has taken tribal votes from Congress. These are not going to go back to Congress. From here on, Congress's troubles will only mount"

What I don't like about this elections is it has given a ray of hope for Congress and confidence to Rahul Gandhi. A win in Rajasthan and/or Chattisgarh will give the c system more hope. I was hoping a heavy defeat will snuff any hopes of revival. If BJP loses Rajasthan/Chattisgarh, it has to win 2019 with a massive win.

I hope RaGa and his retinue of advisors is burnt out as he has been made to work much harder than he has ever before. When is his next foreign holiday to an unknown destination?

[chetak]

[Gus]

Need deeper analysis on vote margins and constituency wide comparison of past and now.

I disagree about the 'needed more hindutva' type wishful thinking. there's no indication that the hindutva voter stayed home. BJP increased voteshare to 50% ..more than ever before iirc.

[hanumadu]

^^ +1.

[hanumadu]

Modi extending olive branch to patels in his speech or at least that's my interpretation.

[chetak]

Guys more later but my quick take: Looking at the Gujarat results, Hindu consolidation is still a pipe dream. The caste contradictions are too deep and only an economic miracle make Hinduthva attractive across the board. Also, with the kind of fawning support Pappu got, Cong Mukt bharat is also a pipe dream. So Amit Shah and Co have to come up with a blended message of 3 themes: 1) Hinduthva, 2) Corruption free, and 3) Development. Any one alone is not enough.

But like all nationalists, I am relived that at least BJP pulled through. Had the initial trends held and Pappu and his slaves actually, won, India would have been in turmoil by now. Congoons would have gone for the kill.

the congis have created a vast and self sustaining ecosystem of patronage over the course of seven decades. This system is deeply entrenched and lucrative because it uses public funds and govt patronage in encourage sycophantic behavoir patterns. One only has to look at the sarkari padma bushan patrakars to see how effective this system is and how many govt houses and flats were occupied by sarkari "artists" and how many went on freeloading jaunts with every foreign trip taken by the previous PMs. presidents and the VPs.

They congis used every trick in the book as well as many not in any book to pollinate and fertilize this system with very very clear expectations of quid pro quo that has made the system extremely profitable to both the host and the parasites.

The BJP top leadership seems too queasy to even attempt such real politic and transactional processes. The previous management was not averse to the idea.

[shravanp]

Need deeper analysis on vote margins and constituency wide comparison of past and now.

I disagree about the 'needed more hindutva' type wishful thinking. there's no indication that the hindutva voter stayed home. BJP increased voteshare to 50% ..more than ever before iirc.

+1

With BJP gov for 22 years in Gujarat, it's highly doubtful that 'more Hindutva' would have made BJP win. All this 'more Hindutva' argument is muddling the real debate on why BJP-Cong gap narrowed down.

[Supratik]

BJP has almost held onto its urban vote. It suggests that an urban, educated, economically well-off Hindu is more aware of issues and less conscious of caste divisions. That is the future of India. So a future USHV is a strong possibility pan-India.

[Karthik]

BJP has almost held onto its urban vote. It suggests that an urban, educated, economically well-off Hindu is more aware of issues and less conscious of caste divisions. That is the future of India. So a future USHV is a strong possibility pan-India.

It seems people in 18-25 age group didn't vote for BJP, this statistic takes contrary view of your inference.

[Gus]

If new / young / first time voter is not voting for BJP, then it could be many things - impatience of aspirations not being met and/or buying into the negativity in SM.

The second is a genuine problem in places like TN where even educated youth are gone cases. It takes me half an hour to undo a nonsense spread in one second.

that bjp manages to keep voteshare intact or increasing is indeed a massive plus. This means they are doing many things right. The only danger is anti-bjp vote consolidation and new voter apathy.

Rahul - to his credit - has put in the hard work this time and this might push opposition parties to consolidate around him despite their own differences.

A nation wide MGB is in the cards now. Congress can credibly put Rahul as its PM face and not having to rely on somebody like Nitish. This is the biggest plus for congress.

[abhik]

Congress mukt Bharat will not happen with them being removed from power, they will have to be removed from the opposition space too. Once they are reduced to the state they are in UP, Bihar etc in rest of the country only then they will become irrelevant. So winning elections is not enough, BJP will have to engineer new regional opposition parties also.

[Karthik]

The second is a genuine problem in places like TN where even educated youth are gone cases. It takes me half an hour to undo a nonsense spread in one second.

Gus mama, you think the problem is with the kind of movies in addition to TN being somewhat isolated from everything that happens in other parts of India?

[SSundar]

It seems people in 18-25 age group didn't vote for BJP, this statistic takes contrary view of your inference.

That figures. These people don't remember Congi misrules, license quota Raj or religious riots - not even 2002. To them, Gujarat is stagnant and needs a new thought process. This is the same age group that dumped MMS in 2014 and split between Modi's vision and Kejri's snake oil. They just are impatient to change things.