The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

[Hari Seldon]

OMG, what is the DMK going to do? They unknowingly had an alliance with a Brahmin? Which river should they dip in to cleanse themselves of this sin?

The cooum river presents itself. Else, the Buckingham canal can do the job - especially the section near Adayar which is a sewer drain for all purposes. only.

[Gus]

meh..even at the heights of threat cutting and footwear garland on deities, DMK did not balk at colluding with Rajaji.

they would say something like we are against brahminism, not brahmin blah blah.

[MehtaRahulC]

Sri Modji, RSS-leaders (*), RSS-workers and their sponsors had created a real or fake belief that they are against caste based reservation. Modiji never made any statement against reservation, but thru gestures and mannerism, Modiji worked to creat this belief. Sri Modiji's sponsors' created an image that Sri Modiji is "no nonsense" , reservation is nonsense, every no nonsense person is antireservation and hence proved that Modiji is against reservation !!! And RSS-workers and BJP(*)-leaders like Mohan Bhagwatji will occassionaly release statements against reservation.

(* imo rss = bjp , just as iyo shaktimaan = gangadhar)
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So Patels from 1980 till 2016 enmasse supported RSS, and from 2001 to till 2016 enmasse supported Modiji hoping that Modiji and RSS will remove reservation, after Modiji and RSS come in power in center. But nothing happened, and Modiji was forced to issue statements supporting caste based reservation. So many Patels feel cheated by Modiji , RSS-workers and RSS-leaders.
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How much of this feelings of Patels will translate into votes for non-bjp candidates remains to be seen. Because there are 10 other factors - like fear of islamist criminals etc.
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And many Dalits and OBCs are moving closer to RSS because Modiji supported caste based reservation. But Dalits / OBCs still have distrust against RSS, and many think that RSS may finish caste based reservation when RSS gets more power in center
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So there is going to be shift in votes - some patels will move from RSS to congress , and at the same time, many dalits / tribals / obc will move from congress to rss.
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Except showcase letter from some archbishop, missionaries in Gujarat are NOT asking tribals to vote for congress and oppose rss. In may-2014, tribals under missionaries did vote for rss (say so who have gone thru boothwise voting data). Many booths are 100% missionary regulalrly church attending tribals, and those booths had sizeable votes for rss in may-2014. Apparently, rss is NOT creating any non-verbal resistance against missionaries and so missionaries dont see them as problem anymore. On paper, some 1% Gujju are Christian. But out of 15% Tribal population and 7% dalits, a sizeable are now defact christians i.e. regularly attend churches. How many of them will vote for congress or rss depends on what priests ask them to do. In may-2014, priests have no diktat to vote for congress and vote against rss. Lets see how things go now. boothwise records will prove.
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The biggest vote generator for RSS and Modiji has been fear of islamist criminals. There is a panchatantra story that a lion hired cat, paid good salary to gaurd lion's hair from a mouse. The cat killed the mouse and so lion fired the cat. Modiji and RSS-workers have read this tale. So Modiji and RSS-workers know that if problem of islamist criminals ends, then Modiji and RSS will loose a big vote generator. And so they oppose 2 child law and oppose laws needed to expel Bangldeshies. And they also oppose community control over Hindu temples. Because higher child rate , Bangladeshis and lack of community control over temples are ONLY THREE reasons fueling islamist criminal problem in India (except JK, where along with three reasons, one more reason is Pakistan's closeness). So islamist problems keeps growing in India, and a vote generator for RSS is still active.

[Sachin]

They did and the media is going hammer and tongs asking Pappu to declare his faith. Now, Randeep Surjewala is claiming that Rahul ji is not just any Hindu but a janeu dhari aka sacred thread wearing Hindu

And add to it; 'Congress election rigged': Poonawalla brothers slug it out over Rahul Gandhi elevation . Is this a tactic to deflect the religion aspect away from Rahul? The Congress-wallahs are now even saying that there is no bigger Shiv-Bhakt than Mr.Ghandi . Organisations like VHP should now make a Ghar Wapsi story of this .

And the Congress knows it can split the Hindu votes by playing on the fears and aspirations of the caste-vulnerable voter. So it continues the communal game in every election.

Congress has the benefit of 60+ years rule, in which it has mastered every tactic which can ensure that they stay in power. Many a time I have felt that British seems to know Indian psychology & thought processes better than we Indians ourselves. And this knowledge they accumulated have been for sure passed to the Congress-wallahs and the Nehru-Ghandi clan in particular.

The biggest vote generator for RSS and Modiji has been fear of islamist criminals.

If that was the reason, why are the other "secular parties" working to eradicate the Islamist criminals? I mean none of the seculars really want to see BJP out there. But then why are they not working to erode that party's importance? In Kerala, due to some recent happenings and the CPI(M) govt. stance on various issues, even many fence sitters are now becoming fans of RSS & BJP. Again one major reason is the growing influence of the Islamist thugs. My question to commies also remains the same; if that is true why are'nt the commies opposing Islamist thugs?

[Sridhar k]

meh..even at the heights of threat cutting and footwear garland on deities, DMK did not balk at colluding with Rajaji.

they would say something like we are against brahminism, not brahmin blah blah.

They are already aligning
https://mobile.twitter.com/Radhasureshb ... 24/photo/1

[MehtaRahulC]

The biggest vote generator for RSS and Modiji has been fear of islamist criminals.

If that was the reason, why are the other "secular parties" working to eradicate the Islamist criminals? I mean none of the seculars really want to see BJP out there. But then why are they not working to erode that party's importance? In Kerala, due to some recent happenings and the CPI(M) govt. stance on various issues, even many fence sitters are now becoming fans of RSS & BJP. Again one major reason is the growing influence of the Islamist thugs. My question to commies also remains the same; if that is true why are'nt the commies opposing Islamist thugs?

Sachin,

By quoting me, you are making my sentences visible to those who have blocked me !! . Many anti-RM-elements block me to maintain their mental peace. And you have disturbed their peace and raised their BP by showing them my quote !! Thats why, on BR1, it was was considered a sin to quote RM the common.
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Coming your question - simple answer is Saud money.
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eg Take Mulayam / Lalu Yadav, Paswan etc. After Janata Party collapsed in 1980, Lalu , Mulaya etc were running from pillar to post trying to raise funds to run their outfits. No Indian eliteman helped. And only Saudies helped. And so Saudies have made deep inroads in these p-secular party. CPM / CPI too became dependent on West and Sauds for funds. Congress tried to become Hinduvaadi during Rajiv Gandhi's times. (pls find out who opened Ram Janam Bhoomi temples gates for shila pujan and when). but foreign powers defeated him by running a massive campaign against him on Bofors non-issue. And after that, in 1991, Congress was formaly taken over by USUK-elitemen.
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And many TRUE secular parties are working to reduce islamist threats by working to bring 2 child law, expelling Bangldeshis and printing law to have community control over temples. But they are small.
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( aside : Community control over mosques gives strength to peacefuls - criminals as well as non criminals. Ditto for Sikhs. In fact, community control of Sikhs over Gurudrwara was/is stronger than that in peaceful, which made/makes Sikhs stronger than peacefuls . Whereas lack of community control over temples has been weakening Hindus since 300 BC in a slow motion. And so community control over temples is imo important milestone in dealing with islamist threats. Govt and policemen cant reach all corners in time. There are times and places where one needs structured sustained community action with attempts to convert back).
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RSS keeps sound bytes that convince (or fool) Hindus that RSS is sincere about solving Islamist crime problem. But RSS never works to print 2 child law or stop Bangladeshi or end govt control over temples. IOW, the three factors that strengthen peacefuls - high growth rate, Bangldeshi infiltration and lack of community control over temples -- remain intact. Only thing RSS would do is --- end street crimes. But cancer beneath keeps growing. And finally, the solution will be --- hand over whole country to gora hoping that they will help us !!

More details will be in my coming book. Meanwhile, pls follow my SM profile.

[abhijit]

Modi said ready to pay political price. Sound like defeated. Recent videos of hardik was a desperate attempt. Looks like bjp is in trouble in Gujrat. Any news from the ground? how is overall mood?

[hanumadu]

Satta bazaar has given 110-115 seats to BJP.
About Patel agitation - Will congress aligning with Hardik Patel and promising them reservations antagonize others and turn them to BJP. Like in Haryana. Jats are by the largest caste group but BJP won with others consolidating towards it.

[crams]

Modi said ready to pay political price. Sound like defeated. Recent videos of hardik was a desperate attempt. Looks like bjp is in trouble in Gujrat. Any news from the ground? how is overall mood?

Rubbish. He was statesmanlike and said he said he is determined to transform India no matter what the political price. Thats conviction, not defeated.

[MehtaRahulC]

RSS (*) won elections in Haryana by convincing (or fooling?) Dera Sachha Sauda people that RSS will side with Dera in numerous court cases against Dera. After RSS backstabbed Dera and Sant Gurmeet Ram Rahim Gurmeetji, RSS lost several local body elections because Dera followers didnt vote for RSS
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(* imo RSS = BJP just as iyo Shakitmaan = Gangadhar)
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Patels want one of three - cancel all CBR (= caste based reservation) OR include Patels in OBC or give Patels 15% reservation
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Patel knew since 1990s that Congress will never do any of three. But RSS and later Sri Modiji had created hopes that RSS and Modiji will cancel CBR !! And so Patels feel cheated. And hence the mess.
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Many Patels want to leave RSS but they have nowhere to go. Congress supports Islamists criminals, and Patels know the danger. So some Patels will just stay with RSS, some may go with Congress and some may not vote. They dont have clear choices before them.
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And at the same time, many SC / ST / OBC are thinking of switching to RSS because Modiji issued statement supporting reservation. But they too fear that RSS may cancel CBR if RSS becomes too strong. After all, BJP leader Mohan Bhagwat does make anti-reservation statement once every 100 days. So they too have lots of confusion.
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Local Missionaries are NOT asking followers to vote for congress. In may-2014, in local churches, they praised Sri Modiji. Missionaries get orders from USA, along with funds. A statement from archbishop is only to convince Hindus that Missionaries are against Sri Modiji. RSS has done NOTHING to stop growth of Missionaries except some verbal duels here and there. So Missionaries are quite happy. The stopping of funds did minimal effect, because out of 100 channels, some 50 were stopped and 50 were kept open. So money came thru other 50. And now USUK-elitemen give tons of funds thru local companies via CSR route. So no foreogn funding related law applies.
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In addition, Sri Modiji and RSS are shutting down local govt schools. (Congress would do the same). One RSS scheme is to give municipal schools to private trusts who can use 50% of land for commercial purposes with condition that profits will be used for education of children. What an idea, Sirji !! As govt school shut down, the hapless poor run to Missionaries' schools. So Missionaries are very pleased.
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So finally, some patels will leave RSS and some OBC / ST / SC and neo-converts will vote for RSS. Total % votes for RSS may down a bit compared to may-2014. But even then 100-110 seats look very much viable.
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But as we all know, whether congress wins or RSS wins --- things will be same

[Sachin]

Meanwhile in UP. "Communalism" on its march again (!!??)
UP Civic Polls Results 2017 Live: BJP Leading In Most Municipal Corporations

[hanumadu]

So, GST and slower GDP growth of the past two quarters did not impact UP municipal elections.

[abhijit]

Excellent news for bjp from UP.

[ashthor]

BJP leading in 14 and BSP 2

[Karthik]

Gurus, any update on HRD front? Seems it has taken distant back seat, is it not a top priority for the govt?

[MehtaRahulC]

Modiji was selected as candidate in "International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP)" run by US State Dept in 1990s. That too - twice !! In 1993 and 1999 !!
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Says verified FB page of "Exchange Programs - U.S. Department of State"
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https://www.facebook.com/ExchangeProgra ... 4811075810 (see #7)
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Exchange Programs - U.S. Department of State
25 April

10 people on TIME's list of the world's most influential people are alumni of our programs, including seven alumni of the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP).

Here's the list:

1. Biram Dah Abeid, IVLP, 2011 and TIP Hero 2016
2. Cindy Arlette Contreras Baustista, IVLP, IWOC, 2017
3. Glenda Gray, IVLP, 2016
4. Juan Manuel Santos, Fulbright Foreign Student, 1980
5. Linda Sarsour, Professional Exchange & Training, 2009
6. Margrethe Vestager, IVLP, 1994
7. Narendra Modi, ACYPL, 1993, SUSI 1999
8. Thelma Aldana, IVLP, 2016, and IWOC 2016
9. Theresa May, IVLP, 2004
10. Yuriko Koike, IVLP, 1983
#ExchangeAlumni

So Modiji came back from that "Leadership Training Program" in 1999. And then became CM in nov-2001.
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For more details, pls see my SM profile

[Schmidt]

meh..even at the heights of threat cutting and footwear garland on deities, DMK did not balk at colluding with Rajaji.

they would say something like we are against brahminism, not brahmin blah blah.

They are already aligning
https://mobile.twitter.com/Radhasureshb ... 24/photo/1

^^^^

I hope you said that sarcastically

By the way that tweet is a hilarious takedown of Stalin saying abhivadaye

Stalin has just got old and is afflicted with cancer , otherwise no one in TN has forgotten what a rowdy and a thug he was in his youth

[Hari Seldon]

BJP-14, BSP-2, SP-0, INC-0.

Quoting from twitter... P.S.: Heh.

Such big focus on #UPCivicPolls2017 just to 'test Yogi' gives a feeling that media won't rest till Yogi becomes PM

[KL Dubey]

Da UP mayoral elections....was that Fast and Furious 8 or what ??



(Vin Diesel is a dead ringer for Yogi Adityanath)

[Marten]

Dubeyji, there is the small matter of a difference of about 8 inches in their height. They both do have a kind smile.

[Hari Seldon]

So now its come to this, even mutual fund firms are leveraging the pappu brand ... Heh.

[Hari Seldon]

Now even the likes of BSY, with nary any notable administrative/performance achievements to their credit, are chiming in bigtime.

Cong's days are numbered, says BSY on UP victory (DH)

State BJP president B S Yeddyurappa on Friday said Chief Minister Siddaramaiah should realise that the Congress' days are numbered, following the saffron party's victory in the local body elections in Uttar Pradesh.

"The writing on the wall is clear and unambiguous. BJP's political ideological opponents, especially our Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, must realise that the days of the Congress party are numbered in politics and the people are waiting for the first available opportunity to throw the country's oldest party into the dustbin," he said in a press release.

The party's victory means that the Centre's decision to demonetise high-value notes and introduce Goods and Service Tax have been a success, he said, adding that Siddaramaiah should stop spewing venom against Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

shaabash. So in that last line there, our man BSY reveals his gameplan of trying to again ride NM's coat-tails than to come out with a positive vision for what a BJP sarkar would do differently (apart from stopping Tipu Jayanti, I guess) should it come to power with a simple majority.

Aren't there enough severe infrastructural crises in BLR alone? For instance, why not promise that we'll widen/smoothen/repair ALL of BLR's major roads within 2 yrs of swearing in, hain ji? Just saying, for crying out loud. Only.

[hanumadu]

Shehzad Poonawala has stung Manish Tiwari and Manish Tiwari is so dumb to say that congress party is a proprietorship.

I don't get the drama. Congress can let any one contest for president and still a Gandhi will win.
How can Manish Tiwari get caught on the phone saying the congress party is a proprietorship? May be there is a rebellion brewing in the congress.

[hanumadu]

So now its come to this, even mutual fund firms are leveraging the pappu brand ... Heh.

Looks like every body is confident congress will not be in power anytime soon.

[Hari Seldon]

India Today‏Verified account @IndiaToday
Husbands guilty of instant triple talaq could soon land behind bars for 3 years. #ITVideo
Know more: http://bit.ly/2kehuwh

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/9 ... 4705818625
Nice 4 min video the link. Do watch.

Would be nice to have a few high-profile arrests and convictions in quick succession to get the message across. Expect jihardon mobs to howl and converge in numbers across cities (ostensibly for 'protest rallies' but in reality to threaten the state with arson and murder if they don;t get their way).

P.S. NM's style was once described as pervasive, relentless incrementalism. Step by step converging from n different directions, slowly steadily inching forward. This above is pervasive incrementalism towards a UCC, perhaps? Another long standing Hindutva voter issue.