The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

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hanumadu
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:39 pm

Any body from TN, on the chances of NDA alliance. Will AIADMK pull their weight considering there is talk of huge anti incumbency against them?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:31 pm

JohnTitor wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:26 pm
I am happy that BJP is making alliances, but the BJP needs to increase its own vote share and decrease it's reliance on allies. Today's allies are tomorrow's does. Nitish is a prime example, that snake will bite whenever he feels it'll help him, just as all the allies
Yes sir, right away sir. Would you like fries with that ? (bobbing head in Indian style - no emoticon for that)

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Mon Feb 18, 2019 5:42 pm

Need something in AP and JH.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:01 pm

On a less facetious note, in LS 2014 BJP contested 427 seats (and won 282, a 66% success rate).

116 seats went to alliance partners, who only managed to win 54 (47% success rate). If you look carefully, this low conversion is mainly because of TN where small parties like DMDK/MDMK/PMK/IJK/NRC etc contested 32 seats but won just 2.

In 2019, by my calculation the number of seats going to alliance partners will likely be less than 2014. and probably 100 or so. This assumes TN alliance is a done deal, and no alliance with Jagan in AP. So indeed, it kills two birds with one stone:

- BJP is contesting more seats and will certainly get increased vote share, except perhaps for AP and TG
- The low seat conversion issue in TN is greatly addressed by addition of a large party

As far as LS 2019 elections, they are almost upon us. There is now no question of "building voteshare". The only two important things for BJP are:

A) Get a 1-3% boost in vote share to get through in about 60-70 seats where the margin is narrow. I don't expect any polls to be reliable in these seats. This is where NaMo campaign and goremint actions in the next few weeks are important.

B) Get "instant" vote share boost in about 40-50 seats in TN, BH, MH, PB, etc with help of NDA partners

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by theeran » Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:15 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:39 pm
Any body from TN, on the chances of NDA alliance. Will AIADMK pull their weight considering there is talk of huge anti incumbency against them?
They have good prospects in kongu belt - 9 seats. These had kind of modi wave in last election. Rest of the state is doubtful. Might come third after ammk.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Mon Feb 18, 2019 9:49 pm

Double whammy. One BJP and NDA not getting a big tally. Two, UPA getting significant numbers.
KA is also a worry.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by arshyam » Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:21 am

theeran wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:15 pm
hanumadu wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 4:39 pm
Any body from TN, on the chances of NDA alliance. Will AIADMK pull their weight considering there is talk of huge anti incumbency against them?
They have good prospects in kongu belt - 9 seats. These had kind of modi wave in last election. Rest of the state is doubtful. Might come third after ammk.
Problem is, DMK is not a credible force at the moment, so things can go either way. Kongu and the deep south like Kanniyakumari (and maybe Ramanathapuram, Sivaganga) should work for the NDA, central districts have tended to vote for the DMK. Madurai belt will be interesting this time, worth watching. PMK has a fighting chance in the northern belt as usual, might get 1-2 seats there. Chennai will be a toss-up, though has been a DMK bastion in the past. Not sure if BJP is contesting any Chennai seat, but if they do, their best chance is south Chennai, where they'll need a really charismatic candidate. But overall, I'd anti-incumbency is not too bad, so the AIADMK might well pull a surprise. BJP will improve its tally, but not by much.

Net net, hard to say either way at this point.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:13 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:01 pm
On a less facetious note, in LS 2014 BJP contested 427 seats (and won 282, a 66% success rate).

As far as LS 2019 elections, they are almost upon us. There is now no question of "building voteshare".
Obviously building vote share takes time, I was talking about longer time. But then again, common sense is not very common. In MH the reliance on SS has been eternal, which allowed SS to constantly complain and blackmail, especially after the thakrey sons took over.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:15 am

On another note, how come the EC hasn't declared the election dates yet?

The new parliament needs to be in place by may 21st. That means there is about 3 months to vote and count.. and with the long drawn out phasing of polling that happens with general elections, it feels a bit late.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:38 am

Mean while on the Pulwama attack the main stream media is back into the mode of "help the innocent Kashmiris", and have come out with their sob stories and also editorials etc. A few samples from one just news paper:-
Stop vilification of Kashmiris
It was a terrorist who mounted the attack on the CRPF personnel, and no Kashmiri is to be held responsible and accountable for the depredation. :roll:
....
Any campaign against the Kashmiris in other parts of the country can only further increase the alienation of Kashmiris and make the situation in the state more intractable.



Pulwama: Case against Chickpet shopkeepers for shutdown
So looks like a few traders were not in a mood to shut down shops and the report can give indications on which group of traders would that be ;). Another officer said the protesters also raised slogans that created a fear psychosis among traders and posed a threat to law and order. Who needs to be afraid here?

'Attacking Kashmiris aimed at creating communal rift'
Tension in Kashmir worries traders in Kerala
Kashmiris leaving Bihar lock, stock & ‘apparel’

Just one slap rattled Azhar, says his interrogator
:lol:. A slap and the canary singing? I am just wondering what these folks would do when they have to meet Kerala's & Karnataka's finest ;). Uruttal, Garudan Parava, Hot seat; all would make the Jehadis sing like Lata Mangeshkar.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:47 am

The days of a single party sweeping the whole landscape of India alone are almost over (Unless there is a wave). Even with ModiJi, the most popular leader since Indira Gandhi, BJP going all alone and winning 300 seats on its own is seriously doubtful. This is where alliances with local partners come in handy.
Local partners may blackmail, cajole or even jump ship at times but that is the nature of the politics. Nitish has done it in the past but before that Naveen did it and latest stabber was Chandranna. This falls under Risk and Rewards category.
The other story with national parties like BJP is this constant clamor for charismatic local face. Good to have but from where to get one is million dollar question. Some of the faces like BSY, SS and Raje are now stale and past expiry date, so getting fresh faces for next round instead of just charismatic face should be a priority. BJP did well on this front by bringing in DF,Biplab Kumar Deb, Yogi etc. Meanwhile find a way to get Thailavar ascend the CM chair in TN to break the hold of DMK.

Few of central ministers like Goyal, SI and Nirmala Setharaman can be good CM candidates if the opportunity arises.

There has been too much focus on UP while whole of East coast is waiting to be plucked. A good show in this part can compensate for loss of seats in Hindi heartland (which is expected).
For local politics, I would dance with joy when Mamta and Commies are consigned to the dustbin of politics and BJP takes over both Bengal and Kerala.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by James » Tue Feb 19, 2019 6:18 am

JohnTitor wrote:
Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:15 am
On another note, how come the EC hasn't declared the election dates yet?

The new parliament needs to be in place by may 21st. That means there is about 3 months to vote and count.. and with the long drawn out phasing of polling that happens with general elections, it feels a bit late.
In 2014, the election schedule was announced by the EC on 5th March. So there is still some time, this time around as well.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:24 am

JohnTitor wrote:
Tue Feb 19, 2019 3:13 am
KL Dubey wrote:
Mon Feb 18, 2019 6:01 pm
On a less facetious note, in LS 2014 BJP contested 427 seats (and won 282, a 66% success rate).

As far as LS 2019 elections, they are almost upon us. There is now no question of "building voteshare".
Obviously building vote share takes time, I was talking about longer time. But then again, common sense is not very common. In MH the reliance on SS has been eternal, which allowed SS to constantly complain and blackmail, especially after the thakrey sons took over.
Motherhood and apple pie (I just baked one last evening BTW, so here is some for you too). Everybody and his brother is aware of need for "longer term vote building". That is what has already happened in the last 5 years in MH, where BJP has now gotten much ahead of SS and this has seriously rattled the latter. BJP does not "rely" on SS, it is the other way round. The result of alliance is still a win-win (stupid to cannibalize a RW party and give INC-NCP the advantage). But as soon as that changes in future, one can be sure Modi and Shah will act accordingly.

So, don't be a magpie, have some apple pie.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Tue Feb 19, 2019 12:44 pm


chetak
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:04 pm

twitter
How proud is @Raghav_Bahl @TheQuint , Karan Thapar, Praveen Swami feeling right now? Beloved Pakistan has quoted their articles to brand Kulbhushan Jadhav as a ‘RAW spy’ at ICJ .. Putting an Indian life in danger again.. Sleep well tonight guys.

Pakistan quotes The Quint, Karan Thapar and Praveen Swami to brand Kulbhushan Jadhav as a ‘RAW spy’ at ICJ
Pakistan quotes The Quint, Karan Thapar and Praveen Swami to brand Kulbhushan Jadhav as a ‘RAW spy’ at ICJ

Pakistani media has been quoting articles publishes by Indian media to prove that Kulbhushan Jadhav had two passports and he was spying in Pakistan

OPINDIA STAFF
FEBRUARY 19, 2019

Image


The International Court of Justice is hearing a plea to release Kulbhushan Jadhav who has been lodged in a Pakistani jail on the charges of spying. Jadhav was awarded death penalty by a Pakistani court in 2017. The hearing started yesterday when India presented its case. Today advocate Khawar Qureshi started submission on behalf of Pakistan, contesting the arguments made by India yesterday.

And in a huge surprise, the Pakistani advocate used articles published in Indian media to make its case, to prove that Kulbhushan Jadhav was indeed a spy. The Pakistani side quoted an article written by Journalist Karan Thapar in The Indian Express in 2017, where he had questioned the stand on Ministry of External Affairs in regard to Jadhav.
Bar & Bench @barandbench · 5h

Replying to @barandbench

When did Jadhav retire and at what age? What evidence is there that Jadhav retired from the Armed Forces? Why was he is possession of an authentic Indian passport with a cover name?#KulbhushanJadhav #ICJ


Image


Qureshi refers to Indian media's coverage of Jadhav case. Refers to stories by Karan Thapar and Praveen Swami#KulbhushanJadhav #ICJ pic.twitter.com/6vFvxJEpde


3:21 PM - Feb 19, 2019


Image
After that, Qureshi quoted another article journalist written by Praveen Swamy in January 2018 for Frontline. In an article titled India’s secret war, Swamy had argued that “it is impossible for India to deny he is who he says he is”, and had claimed that Jadhav was indeed on an espionage mission in Pakistan.
Bar & Bench @barandbench · 5h

Replying to @barandbench

Qureshi refers to Indian media's coverage of Jadhav case. Refers to stories by Karan Thapar and Praveen Swami#KulbhushanJadhav #ICJ


Image

Qureshi refers to Chandan Nandy article published in @TheQuint. It's taken a journalist to raise the question of the passport issue, Qureshi#KulbhushanJadhav #ICJ pic.twitter.com/c56UXMMVVr

3:24 PM - Feb 19, 2019[/b]

Image[/quote]


The Pakistani advocate also quoted another article from India media, an article by Chandan Nandy published in The Quint. Nandy had alleged that Jadhav has two passports, one in his own name and another with the name Hussein Mubarak Patel, and this was presented as a proof that he was working for RAW in Pakistan.

All these articles were widely quoted by Pakistani media, as proofs that the claims of Pakistan are true.


This is not the first time comments published by Indian media was used against India in a court outside the country. During the hearing for Vijay Mallya’s extradition in London, Mallya’s lawyers had extensively used articles published against then CBI Special Director Rakesh Asthana in trying to prove that the case against Mallya was politically motivated. The London court had rejected those arguments and ordered the extradition of Mallya to India.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:24 pm

bjp admk pmk and some small one seat parties in alliance. negotiations with vijaykant.

depend on actual seats they get, bjp can get 2/3 and NDA can get 10-15 conservative. all this may change depending on what schemes are on the offer and campaigning etc.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:41 pm

What is the break-up in TN? Can't seem to find it.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:17 pm

Supratik wrote:
Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:41 pm
What is the break-up in TN? Can't seem to find it.
Of the 40 seats (TN and Puducheri) I believe the deal is that BJP will contest 5 seats, PMK 6-7 (mainly in north TN, I think), DMDK 2, and couple of other small parties 1 each. Total about 15 for the previously existing NDA parties, which was the original proposal.

FWIW, I think it is a history of sorts made today...with the 50 AIADMK MPs, the NDA is at its highest ever strength in Sansad (444 out of 790), breaking the 2014 record.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Tue Feb 19, 2019 8:35 pm

Gus wrote:
Tue Feb 19, 2019 4:24 pm
depend on actual seats they get, bjp can get 2/3 and NDA can get 10-15 conservative. all this may change depending on what schemes are on the offer and campaigning etc.
Depends on how many Peaceful weddings Stalin gets invited to between now and the elections. Seriously.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Wed Feb 20, 2019 12:41 am

So Trump bahadur has spoken and told its munnas to make p!ss with each other. How disgusting. The condescension towards India is simply breathtaking.

He also said he will make another statement after getting more inputs and is closely monitoring the situation. Wonder what his peeping toys and Toms are monitoring? Indian preparations for any retaliation so he could spill the beans through his many media mouthpieces and forewarn his TSP munna who needs to deliver Afghanistan p!ss?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Mort Walker » Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:54 am

Request for Help:

The constant barrage of news as to how the BJP and Hindu Nationalists have increased attacks on minorities is always the underlying anti-NDA story. However, can someone please provide data from the NCRB (National Crime Records Bureau) and CBI about communal violence? In fact, from all evidence communal violence has declined since May 2014. In contrast, in the US hate crimes based on race and religion have increased significantly since late 2016 from FBI statistics.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Muns » Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:02 am

Okay I hope that I'm not one to take into much of a whine mode. However please excuse me on the post below and using a few of the :)) :)) :))

So MBS (Mohammed bin Salman) after much hiding from international condemnation after ordering the killing of journalist Khashoggi. Literally calling him to the Saudi Embassy in Turkey beheading him and then spreading his body parts over the back of the embassy. Nobody really wanted to meet up with him during the G8 Summit. He then goes to Pakistan, gives them $20 billion in aid. Then arrives in India with the statement saying that he is here to 'defuse' tensions between India and Pakistan and find more lost Piss pliss....

Not only that but why is Modi, coming to the airport in the middle of the night to receive this guy as soon as his plane touches the ground. Who the H*** is MBS and why should he be getting the Modi bear hugs?
Apart from preventing and doling more $$ to pakistan what can this Wahhabi really offer us?

:cry: :)) :facepalm:

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KarthikSan » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:07 pm

Muns wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:02 am

Apart from preventing and doling more $$ to pakistan what can this Wahhabi really offer us?

:cry: :)) :facepalm:
A reliable and steady supply of cheap energy? A short leash on the Wahappigs that run Porkistan? More business to Indian infrastructure and engineering companies now that he has pretty much destroyed OBL family conglomerate? The possibilities are limitless and I'm sure NaMo and AD have their reasons that we would never find out.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Wed Feb 20, 2019 2:10 pm

^ I suspect Modi never lets on what he is really thinking, that is why he keeps silent until he needs to. His actions have always spoken louder than his words.
As far as this particular action is concerned, I also feel that Modi is one of those leaders who truly works for the nation, even if it involves hugging despicable people in public. He must have felt this would be in the best interest of India and is looking at the bigger picture.

We will find out very soon what MBS's visit does for India. It is likely that it will be a damp squib. I am sure this government is not going to give in to any demands that will hurt India's long term strategy.

You also have to consider the possibility that this is in keeping with the game plan of keeping things very quiet until everything explodes, this is a nice way to keep the media and more importantly the enemy guessing.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:00 pm

Modi's solar and electric vehicles drive will be the death knell for Wahabism. He is also looking at improving domestic crude production. 10 more years for Mod.

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