The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

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Yagnasri
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Yagnasri » Mon Jan 28, 2019 8:32 am

Yes. Pappu got 80% support from AP and funnily no one is voting for INC at the same time there. How these two things can be there at the same time is a big mystery. :mrgreen:

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:06 pm

suryag wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:29 am
Muns ji - please count me in on the funding part.
Ditto

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:09 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:35 am
Yagnasri wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:25 am
NTR's grandson and Purandhareswari's son has joined Jagan's YSRC party. With this the Kamma batch of BJP will jump to Jagan. This was expected. BJP is not going to be any force in AP during 2019 elections and moneybags who jumped into BJP immediately after division will now jump to YSRC or to TDP (which is unlikely)

The hate campaign on BJP was in full swing in Telugu lands for almost two years and most of it was created and managed by CBN. Unfortunately BJP woke up late to do anything for 2019.
If the firstpost survey posted above is anything to go by, Modi has about 10% aproval rating in AP. Rahul Gandhi is much more popular which is down right stupid on their part considering his party divided AP.
take firstpost inputs with a bucket full of salt.

It's ambani owned and has very strong anti govt views and plenty of contributors willing to spin the news per payment received.

ambani is, as usual, playing both sides and he hopes to come out on top, no matter who wins.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Singha » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:10 pm

"The Congress has decided to take a historic decision... If voted to power in 2019, the Congress-led government is going to give minimum income guarantee," Mr Gandhi said at a rally in Chhattisgarh capital Raipur this evening.

"This means, each poor person in India will have minimum income. This means there will be no hungry, poor people in India," added Mr Gandhi.

"We cannot build a new India while millions of our brothers & sisters suffer the scourge of poverty. If voted to power in 2019, the Congress is committed to a Minimum Income Guarantee for every poor person, to help eradicate poverty & hunger. This is our vision & our promise," tweeted the Congress chief, whose party was targeted by the BJP for focusing on welfare measures instead of economic growth during its decade in power.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Singha » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:13 pm

PV will probably be a big hit in AP.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:23 pm

Singha, saw that news item? Any details about that gimmick? Will Pappu use his family loot to find the scheme? Or is it just to make a huge splash and garner some headlines?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:27 pm

Singha wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:10 pm
"The Congress has decided to take a historic decision... If voted to power in 2019, the Congress-led government is going to give minimum income guarantee," Mr Gandhi said at a rally in Chhattisgarh capital Raipur this evening.

"This means, each poor person in India will have minimum income. This means there will be no hungry, poor people in India," added Mr Gandhi.

"We cannot build a new India while millions of our brothers & sisters suffer the scourge of poverty. If voted to power in 2019, the Congress is committed to a Minimum Income Guarantee for every poor person, to help eradicate poverty & hunger. This is our vision & our promise," tweeted the Congress chief, whose party was targeted by the BJP for focusing on welfare measures instead of economic growth during its decade in power.
maybe trying to preempt a possibly soon to be announced Modi govt scheme and claim it as their own for having "forced" the Modi govt to capitulate and accept it just like the vatican mata is trying to do with the women's reservation bill.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:31 pm

Singha wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:13 pm
PV will probably be a big hit in AP.
undercutting both YSR and CBN??

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:52 pm

chetak wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:09 pm

take firstpost inputs with a bucket full of salt.

It's ambani owned and has very strong anti govt views and plenty of contributors willing to spin the news per payment received.

ambani is, as usual, playing both sides and he hopes to come out on top, no matter who wins.

Take ALL election surveys with a bucket of salt. Some (like the Firstpost one) are more detailed, fully show their methods and results, and thus are somewhat useful/worth a closer look. Whereas most of them are just "some numbers for a news channel to talk about".

A few non-intuitive items in the detailed report that came with the Firstpost survey are:

- In TN people seem to trust AIADMK on all counts to solve various issues. That runs counter to the narrative that they are in a weak position for 2019.

- In AS people seem to trust INC on all counts. Again, that runs counter to the 70% vote for NDA.

- In AP people seem to trust TDP on all counts. Again, this is counter to the narrative that Chandranna is going to be busted this time.

It is possible that some of these are typos/errors in presentation. For example, in the graphics it shows UP people as being 84% influenced by caste and religion and not development issues...but the actual data shown in the report is 16%. Whoever prepared the graphic has made a mistake. They need to do a thorough check.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:56 pm

https://www.mynation.com/news/bjp-shiv- ... tra-pm1dxg

According to this news, SS and BJP have struck a deal for equal seat sharing with room to accommodate smaller allies. Its not announced officially yet though.

Good move by SS for coming down its high horse.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:59 pm

KL Dubey wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:52 pm
chetak wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:09 pm

take firstpost inputs with a bucket full of salt.

It's ambani owned and has very strong anti govt views and plenty of contributors willing to spin the news per payment received.

ambani is, as usual, playing both sides and he hopes to come out on top, no matter who wins.

Take ALL election surveys with a bucket of salt. Some (like the Firstpost one) are more detailed, fully show their methods and results, and thus are somewhat useful/worth a closer look. Whereas most of them are just "some numbers for a news channel to talk about".

A few non-intuitive items in the detailed report that came with the Firstpost survey are:

- In TN people seem to trust AIADMK on all counts to solve various issues. That runs counter to the narrative that they are in a weak position for 2019.

- In AS people seem to trust INC on all counts. Again, that runs counter to the 70% vote for NDA.

- In AP people seem to trust TDP on all counts. Again, this is counter to the narrative that Chandranna is going to be busted this time.

It is possible that some of these are typos/errors in presentation. For example, in the graphics it shows UP people as being 84% influenced by caste and religion and not development issues...but the actual data shown in the report is 16%. Whoever prepared the graphic has made a mistake. They need to do a thorough check.
Yeah, I was about to mention the TN case. In Assam, BJP just won municipal elections handsomely.
Other incongruities. more than 75% muslims said that development is above religion to them. :rotfl:

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by shravanp » Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:43 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 3:56 pm
https://www.mynation.com/news/bjp-shiv- ... tra-pm1dxg

According to this news, SS and BJP have struck a deal for equal seat sharing with room to accommodate smaller allies. Its not announced officially yet though.

Good move by SS for coming down its high horse.
They had no choice except to ally and fight together. All earlier fights n arguments were hogwash. They silently waited till Cong/NCP made the deal and then went ahead with their own plan. It could very well had been the situation where NCP and Cong had not agreed to fight together, as in previous Maharashtra polls. It was 4-cornered contest in which BJP came out with stunning SLP.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:47 pm

Quite an explosive revelation by SuSwa. If true, this should ring alarm bells everywhere, but I am sure the Congoons and their paid media will either bury it or play the victim. In any country, a person with a diagnosis of BD or Schizophrenia should not hold any position of power in the government, especially if they have any possibility of being elected to the highest post in the land.


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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:48 pm

Looks like the general consensus is that Pappu's more endowed slaves in collusion with perhaps some BJP insider traitors like Arun Shourie, Yashwant Sinha etc got hold of some big bang announcement in the upcoming budget, and stole BJP's thunder by this announcement. Maybe ModiJi was also thinking along similar lines

But among all of Pappu's attacks to date, at least this one is not a mindless attack and is a proposal that has some substance and more than the garibi hatao hot air slogan of Congoons of yesteryear. What I find interesting though is ass holes like that so called economist Arun Kumar or that turncoat Rupa Subramanya who come up with all kinds of economic arguments to attack anything ModiJi proposes are all suddenly cheer leaders for such a rank socialist and populist gimmick.

Either way, BJP needs to counterattack and nullify this move. Or else it can catch India's vast dirt poor population like wildfire. BJP will be out even before the election takes place.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:01 pm

Man either SuSwamy is saying something explosive, or is smoking high potent Afghan pot :-).

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Mon Jan 28, 2019 6:01 pm

Image

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:01 pm

Primus wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:47 pm
Quite an explosive revelation by SuSwa. If true, this should ring alarm bells everywhere, but I am sure the Congoons and their paid media will either bury it or play the victim. In any country, a person with a diagnosis of BD or Schizophrenia should not hold any position of power in the government, especially if they have any possibility of being elected to the highest post in the land.
Saar, I am sure the Indian Constitution has an exception for people who have their grandmother's nose :roll: :roll: .

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Mon Jan 28, 2019 9:26 pm

crams wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:48 pm
Looks like the general consensus is that Pappu's more endowed slaves in collusion with perhaps some BJP insider traitors like Arun Shourie, Yashwant Sinha etc got hold of some big bang announcement in the upcoming budget, and stole BJP's thunder by this announcement. Maybe ModiJi was also thinking along similar lines.
This is not even a secret. Was discussed by CEA and Economic Survey back in 2016/17.

Universal basic income may not be politically feasible: Jaitley

Jaitley even spoke at length in the media about this. He was quite emphatic that the recommendation was to subsume all other subsidies into a single UBI - not to give UBI on top of all other subsidies. This is exactly why he said it would not be politically feasible because States and Centre need to eliminate all other subsidies.

There have been enough media leaks to indicate that Modi is likely to announce some minimal UBI this year for BPL farmers and rural population.

IF/When Modi does announce his plan, it is going to look quite underwhelming compared to Pappu's Garibi Hatao. Congis will go to town talking about how much better their "plan" would be compared to Modi's. Stealing the thunder, it is.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:41 pm

^ problem is, the Congoons are counting on the public not thinking it out but grasping at the possibility of such a windfall. If you promise people free homes, cars, laptops and what not, you really do not have to deliver as long as you can convince the gullible that you are serious about it. People will fall for things like this all the time.

But this may indeed be a serious blow in some ways. I bet the man never thought of this himself, it has to be the work of an agency like CA which has made some serious calculations on how to swing things in a big way towards the GOP.

All that the opposition including the Congress needs to do is to dislodge Modi from the PM post, or at least deny an absolute majority. Once that is done, the vultures can come and feast on the nation's soul, for they know this will be the last chance to do away with the BJP leadership. Unless The Yogi can pull off a Modi the next time - if there is a next time!

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:58 am

Well I am sure BJP will nullify this bogus move from Pappu. Although its not sound economics, but BJP has no choice but to be on par with Congoons on this competitive populism. After that we are back to square one; its ideology. Pappu & Co exploiting caste fissures and appeasing p!ssfuls, while BJP banks on Hinduthva.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KJo » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:09 am

George Fernandes is no more.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Muns » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:12 am

suryag wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:29 am
Muns ji - please count me in on the funding part.
Thank You! If you wish, please email me and can give more details as required.

Best Regards

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:29 am

crams wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 5:48 pm
Looks like the general consensus is that Pappu's more endowed slaves in collusion with perhaps some BJP insider traitors like Arun Shourie, Yashwant Sinha etc got hold of some big bang announcement in the upcoming budget, and stole BJP's thunder by this announcement. Maybe ModiJi was also thinking along similar lines

But among all of Pappu's attacks to date, at least this one is not a mindless attack and is a proposal that has some substance and more than the garibi hatao hot air slogan of Congoons of yesteryear. What I find interesting though is ass holes like that so called economist Arun Kumar or that turncoat Rupa Subramanya who come up with all kinds of economic arguments to attack anything ModiJi proposes are all suddenly cheer leaders for such a rank socialist and populist gimmick.

Either way, BJP needs to counterattack and nullify this move. Or else it can catch India's vast dirt poor population like wildfire. BJP will be out even before the election takes place.
Either way, this has been the problem with BJP. They should say that they were working on this.. but keep quiet till the actual announcement, letting congoons steal the thunder. The same happened with OROP. For all the work they did, they never really got credit..

On another note, minimum income is a bad idea. Looks great on paper but will lead to inflation.. and every year the minimum income will have to go up just to keep up with inflation. It's the same reason minimum wages don't really work in the west. Then again, everyone wants everything free in India.

Looks like Indians have taken socialism to a whole new level. In Thatcher's words, "The trouble with Socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money"
Last edited by JohnTitor on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:45 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Muns » Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:36 am

crams wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 2:06 pm
suryag wrote:
Mon Jan 28, 2019 7:29 am
Muns ji - please count me in on the funding part.
Ditto
CRamS, Thank You. I want to say that many of your ideas and posts, do make a difference, it has grown from being a teen on BRF and now transitioning to BharatGanrajya. Many of your ideas along with everyone else's are my guiding focus for some of these videos.
Fine tuning should be up in the next 1 day with regard to the website. Please email me if any concerns.

Best regards,

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:47 am

So how does Min Income program work ? Is this NAREGA in another bottle with a different label ?
Do I get to sit at home and accept benefit from GoI. How exactly would such a program work except for making leeches out of ordinary people ?
Instead of honest, hard working, Tax paying citizens, Political class is bent upon converting us to free loaders.

<Found answer to my own question>
India’s main opposition party The Indian National Congress has raised the stakes for the incumbent Narendra Modi government. On Monday, Congress president Rahul Gandhi promised a minimum income guarantee for every poor person if the party won the 2019 elections..
What is the promise from Congress President Rahul Gandhi?
Congress has promised to give the country’s poor a minimum amount of money from the government as monthly income, but hasn’t specified how much it will be.
Is it the same as universal basic income (UBI)?
It is unlikely to be the same as UBI, which by definition would mean an assured amount of money from the government to every citizen of the country. However, minimum income guarantee may only be available to people below a certain income threshold.
In Pics: Average salaries around the world

How much will it cost the government?
It is difficult to ascertain the cost without the details of the programme. India’s total population is 1.36 billion, of which 22% of people below poverty line. Assuming that the government supports only those below the poverty line, it will still have to pay nearly 300 million people a fixed sum of money every month.
Separately, SBI’s Chief Economist Soumya Kanti Ghosh recently estimated that about 143 million farmers get one kind of subsidy or another. Accounting for possible omissions for lack of proper identification of beneficiaries and for those who have no land or documentation, the report said that the cost of giving direct cash transfer in lieu of subsidy will be about ₹1.2 trillion a year.
Meanwhile, Pranab Bardhan, professor of graduate school at the department of economics, University of California, Berkeley, estimated that if a scheme like the UBI were to be implemented, the government would have to pay ₹16,000 per household and it would cost ₹2.1 trillion a year, or 1.25% of the gross domestic product (GDP).
Government has 940 centrally sponsored schemes, according to a report from former Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian in 2016. According to that estimate, the cost of giving every citizen some money every month would cost the exchequer about 4-5% of GDP.
Who will bear the cost?
If the central government raises taxes on the rich, the additional burden will be on the really well-off. However, it may affect the political donations that help parties fight elections.
Raising the burden of middle-class taxpayer may have a political cost and won't win votes.
If the government borrows money to fund additional expense, the burden will be on every taxpayer in the form of higher interest cost, weaker rupee and higher inflation.
Can India afford such a huge burden?
In theory, something like a minimum income guarantee can be funded by three ways: withdrawing or reducing existing subsidies or by raising taxes on richer sections of the people.
So to give poor people given minimum income, would everyone else lose subsidies or pay more tax?
Not necessarily. And certainly, no one will lose all subsidies. The subsidies available from the state governments will continue. If at all, only the central government subsidies may be withdrawn once it implements minimum income guarantee.
So, if you live in Tamil Nadu or Punjab and get subsidised electricity, that will likely continue.
Raising taxes will be a different matter.
So which of the central government subsidies remain?
As of now, the biggest subsidies that the central government offers are on food, fuel, fertilisers, liquified petroleum gas (LPG) cooking cylinders, as well as on tax and interest rates to specific sections of the population.
One cannot say for sure how the government chooses to rationalise the existing subsidies.
Can they withdraw food subsidy?
Unlikely. Food subsidies are made available through the public distribution system, or ration shops, and are unlikely to be dismantled. 52.3% of all households purchased cereals from ration shops in 2011-12 compared to 27% in 2004-05, according to a Niti Aayog report from 2016. It won’t be a politically savvy move to increase the cost of food for half of the country’s households in one go.
India also has a law that gives every citizen a right to affordable food, with the National Food Security Act 2013. So no government can withdraw food security without going back to the Parliament for permission.
Do we still get fuel subsidy?
While petrol and diesel prices have been deregulated, kerosene prices are subsidised as it is used mostly by the very poor and bought at ration shops. While the cost of kerosene subsidy was budgeted in February 2018 at about ₹4,500 crore, withdrawing the support will only hurt the poorest.
What about the subsidy on cooking gas?
The subsidy on LPG cooking cylinders is already transferred online to the eligible buyers. Current prime minister Narendra Modi pushed millions of Indians to adopt LPG cylinders instead of coal hearths. [hyperlink]
Now, it will be a politically sensitive decision for any party to withdraw benefits on basic necessities like LPG, especially after literally forcing them to use it.
What about fertilisers?
Fertiliser subsidies are once again availed by farmers and the recent rural distress will make it difficult for the government to withdraw any farm subsidy.
Moreover, India imports 28% of all the fertilisers it needs, according to India Ratings and Research. On one hand the global prices of fertilisers have been rising, and the weaker rupee has made these imported fertilisers even more expensive. Withdrawing fertiliser subsidy will make farmers really angry.
What about health and education subsidy?
Ayushman Bharat, a scheme that was launched in 2018, is a centrally sponsored insurance programme targeting 10 crore families across India who are either poor and deprived or identified as urban workers' families. It covers hospitalisation cost up to ₹5 lakhs a year, and is likely to continue.
Primary health centres are at funded by state governments.
Central government subsidises higher education in places like IITs, IIMs, AIIMS, JNU etc, which are also likely to stay.
What are interest subsidies?
Often, the state-owned banks offer cheap loans to different sections of the population and the government bears the difference in interest rate.
But don’t India’s farmers already get a lot of subsidies?
Yes, India’s farmers are entitled to minimum support (MSP) price on their produce. Even if the market price of the crop is less than the MSP, the government is supposed to make for the difference.
However, while many governments have either promised or increased the MSP, the net impact on the farmers has been minimal. “No matter how hard the government tries, it cannot procure even 25% of the production of various kharif crops, except in paddy and cotton, as a robust procurement system does not exist for other crops,” experts at Indian Council For Research On International Economic Relations commented in July 2018.
Therefore, withdrawing key subsidies, including those on fertilisers or interest on loans, will make the minimum income guarantee a zero-sum offer for the farmers.
Will MGNREGA continue?
Yes, it’s an employment guarantee scheme, not a subsidy. People are assured a certain number of days of work every year, for which they are paid.
Is the Congress' promise a political gimmick?
Minimum income guarantee will allow poor people to poor people to access basic necessities.
Of course, this is assuming that the minimum amount given to the people is enough to cover their basic expenses. Further, the government will have to ensure that the infrastructure is in place to implement a massive programme like this in a complex country like India.
The biggest problem in India is that it is very difficult to accurately identify those who need such a programme. So to analyse the merits of the promise, we will need more details.
Last edited by Vikas on Tue Jan 29, 2019 6:00 am, edited 1 time in total.

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