The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

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crams
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:07 pm

^^^ Excellent analysis. Insightful read.

On another note, Pappu economist Kaushik Basu tried to cock a snook at ModiJi, but someone responded in kind

@kaushikcbasu

Loan waivers are almost always a bad idea. But even rich nations have limited liability laws which allow for loan waivers in special cases. India’s demonetization caused such acute distress for agriculture that now is a special case where farmers deserve limited liability waiver.

Replying to @kaushikcbasu

What about 2009 56000cr farm loan waiver? Oh I forgot that was because of global financial crisis right?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vriksh » Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:52 pm

Looks like all this while we have been projecting our own concerns about the real issue, which is farmer distress and pappu parasite has latched on to it.

But the good thing is it seems
A ) BJP is now aware of the issue, especially after its shock defeat
B ) Budget 2019 is still pending
C ) RBI guy has been removed and the new guy will allow funds to be used for a sop
D ) Some additional sops to middle class etc may reduce URBAN NOTA

In short, there is a good chance for a fight.

For fcks sake don't let BJP screw this up.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by srikumar » Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:28 am

^^^Item # A on your list would be alarming....if indeed if it took a loss in 3 state elections for BJP leadership to be -aware- that (a) it has a problem, and (b) the problem is farmer distress.

I am assuming/hoping that BHP knew before The polling was complete that it would lose. If this not the case, that is a bigger problem that it does not have a handle on the issues and voting patten. I am not ready to believe that there was only one single cause that BJP lost (in MP or RJ). CG loss might have had one single cause because the the defeat was not close.

Good news is that this loss has shocked some people out of complacency, and maybe galvanized other groups as to what may happen if they don't act.

where is niran these days? He had ground level info.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by a_bharat » Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:50 am

Supratik wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 5:02 pm
Looking at TG BJP vote share. At 7% in 2014 in alliance with TDP. 7% in 2018 without any alliance in a KCR wave. It means they have developed a core vote in TG. Expect them to do better in general election.
7% vote share BJP got in 2014 was from 45 constituencies only, now it is from 118.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Chandragupta » Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:45 am

The road to 2019 and 300+ seats now lie in lightening freebie run. Because Pappu will promise the moon and back, and our electorate is stupid enough to believe him as we have seen. Better for BJP to open the bank and dole out the dough than to have Congis ship half of it to Europe.

People in Twitter making noise that a 3 year tax holiday for middle class for upto 5-7 lakhs income per annum income may be in the works. Effect would be close to 35000 cr but BJP will sweep the urban seats.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Fri Dec 21, 2018 3:10 am

fanne wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 10:41 pm
Emotions run high just after elections so not the right time to either analyze loss or victory. Loss is mostly because of one reason (mainly) - Upper caste youngster voting against Modi for SC ST act. The older UC vote remained intact. Please see VDP associate caste wise breakdown of MP. It is at 50%, when they have been at 65%. So it is loss my take of 15% of UC vote (20% of the population), 3% overall change, minus from BJP and plus to Con (6% overall effect).
Well planned and executed by Cambridge Analytica. This thing started many many months ago. The deep state gave a judgement by striking the SC ST act (I don't think this was a random/routine court strike), I did see a surge of anti Dalit/Anti reservation in many many whats app group I was. Then Modi govt intervened and reestablish the act again I saw a few weeks of virulent anti-Modi messages, then everything went silent (wonder why, some private group of all disgruntled member so that they cannot be brainwashed back?).

More analysis to come
I'm not sure that makes sense. Yes UC did vote against BJP, but they are only a small percentage, not enough to make a huge difference. The overall loss margins suggest it was more than UC.

Agree with you on the rest though.

---

People, intolerance part 2 has begun .. nasarudin has sounded the bugle .. just like Aamir. Expect more sickulars to chime in

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:08 am

Could it be that voters were bored of BJP all around them and hence showed them the door ?
Could this be the simplest explanation rather than writing reams on voting patters, choices, freebies and blah blah.

Chinmayanad wants to judge parties by manifesto promises fulfilled, I think he will be better off voting NOTA in that case.
He reminds me of Rahul Mehta but with less tenacity and no serious research. So if you vote for ThugBandhan, what are you expecting from them this time ? More freebies ? More conversion ? More corruption ? More selling of J&K to Pakis? More falling into the feet of Chinni ?

BTW Why would BJP do good in Bihar and not in some other state ?

PS: From Congress-Mukth, we are back to congress ruling in the hinterland and may form alliance govt in AP and later KL too.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:29 am

chinmayanand wrote:To me , Modi is a bigger fraud & tyrant than Congoons. In 2019 , I will vote for thug bandhan. In my report card, Modi failed miserably . He is a plain corporate agent. His agenda is to milk the middle class dry and distribute it to Gujju corporates.
Seeing the bolded part, I can take a guess on which party would be a better receipient of your vote. It would be the CPI and CPI(M). The hatred that these two parties have for Gujju (or any community, other than peacefools) businessmen and the utter shamelessness they show when they approach the same businessmen for funds is legendary.
You may not feel the pulse on the ground but there is a tornado out there to uproot Modi . He will lose badly.
Will you also be able to share how you sensed the "pulse on the ground"? I mean are you a party worker (of BJP or any other party)?
srikumar wrote:I am assuming/hoping that BHP knew before The polling was complete that it would lose. If this not the case, that is a bigger problem that it does not have a handle on the issues and voting patten. I am not ready to believe that there was only one single cause that BJP lost (in MP or RJ).
+1. When BJP won in 2014 we were all shouting about the excellent "ground level intelligence" capabilities of BJP (via the RSS et.al). And now if we say that in five years time, that intelligence network is gone there is some thing wrong. Either they did not have in 2014, or by the time it is 2019 the network has been dismantled. And except in CG, we must also remind ourselves that BJP still gave a good fight. So the party's voter base in these states have not been completely gone.
Chandragupta wrote:People in Twitter making noise that a 3 year tax holiday for middle class for upto 5-7 lakhs income per annum income may be in the works. Effect would be close to 35000 cr but BJP will sweep the urban seats.
This could also be a "chinese whisper" campaign, i.e start a rumour that BJP has some thing like the above in mind. And when people believe it, ask BJP spokespersons about that. And when they get a shock and say nothing like this was thought of, start a media campaign to say that BJP again dashed people's hope. Just last week I was reading a "news story" which suggested that Na.Mo may not contest this time and SuSwaraj or Gadkari may appear as PM candidates.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:36 am

Vikas wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 6:08 am
Could it be that voters were bored of BJP all around them and hence showed them the door ?
Could this be the simplest explanation rather than writing reams on voting patters, choices, freebies and blah blah.
This seems to be the opinion of quite a few.

It has been pointed out that BJP did well in rural areas and its in the urban areas it lost, so farmers' distress may not be the root cause.
Regarding SC/ST act, Shivraj Chouhan said it won't be implemented on the ground.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:01 am

shravanp wrote:
Thu Dec 20, 2018 9:25 pm
Why is chinmayanand being engaged over here? Kick him out.
I would suggest to not respond to posts/posters like that. You cannot convert people like that. And you are allowing yourself to get disturbed and disrupt flow of the thread.

can't just ban people for not liking modi and criticizing it (fair or unfair apart)..

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:04 am

One thing if we have understood about NaMo is his strength of conviction. he is not going to dole out money or give freebies.
Not happening as much as people on SM make noise about it.
Remember lot of SM noise is old sleeper cells of Luyten system awakening with hope of getting some crumbs post Dec elections.

Anyhow Path to Delhi kingdom was never easy especially for outsiders from South of Delhi.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Chandragupta » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:00 am

One thing we must also remember that while BJP kept repeating Congress mukht bharat, there was no real alternative to Congress in the three states that we lost. Also in MH, GJ, PB, HP etc, principal opposition is still Congress. Until we get a third party that can grab the opposition space, Congress will never be dead. After all, if somebody doesn't want to vote for BJP due to whatever reason, Congis are the only alternative. I hope PIFs are thinking about creating a new right wing party, which can make it a contest between Center-Rightish (BJP) vs Right-Wing (New Party), replacing Congress & its pidis.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:49 am

the ultra rich in US managed to do that by creating tea-party and pull regular republicans and democrats to the right, and held a primary threat and a veto in house.

there are a lot of things that needs to happen to get that sort of thing - lots of funds, media machinery etc, organization and a pan-national appeal based on certain emotive issues, an electorate that is already primed to absorb the talking points and willing to go out and vote etc.

none of these things exist in India to create a 'right to BJP' party.

all these nota nonsense, core hindutva party blah blah are all devices to suppress bjp votes and bring rahul to power.

there is nothing to argue here. NOTA = CORE = PIDI.

get in line behind modi or out yourself as pidi, instead of hiding behind nota, core, more right, what did modi do bla blah..

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chinmayanand » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:51 am

Just because I do not agree with NaMo conviction of doling out public money and writing off loans of industrialists cozy to Modi & Shah , few intolerant Modi Bhakts over here want me to be kicked out. What kind of attitude and thought process do Modi-bhakts have ? They want to deprive me off my constitutional right to disagree and voice my opinion. Modi Bhakts over here are so intolerant that they can not handle criticism.

With supporters like these, NaMo does not need opposition.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:53 am

the only hope is a thrashing of congress, revolt in congress, removal of family and a revival of a proper center left party on economic issues, and center right on national security that brings us to a two party system that competes on growth, development etc..

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:57 am

chinmayanand wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:51 am
Just because I do not agree with NaMo conviction of doling out public money and writing off loans of industrialists cozy to Modi & Shah , few intolerant Modi Bhakts over here want me to be kicked out. What kind of attitude and thought process do Modi-bhakts have ? They want to deprive me off my constitutional right to disagree and voice my opinion. Modi Bhakts over here are so intolerant that they can not handle criticism.

With supporters like these, NaMo does not need opposition.
getting banned here won't get you any martyrdom anywhere :lol: . give it a rest.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chinmayanand » Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:59 am

After Yogi ji found out that Lord Hanuman was Dalit & Adiwasi , one of his MLC/MLA just discovered that Hanuman ji was muslim while another found out that HE was JAT.

This is the kind of people , few Blind-Bhakts over here are promoting. As per Sanatan shashtras, Varna vyvastha was applied by "Manu" on his children "Manushya" but BJP of today wants to apply it forcibly on "Vaanar" species too .

This is the development Modi has done in last four and half years that he is going into election with the caste of Lord Hanuman.
What a pity ?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vriksh » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:08 am

The entire brouhaha over Urijit Patel and RBI fund's just before elections and his stance, lends credence to the fact that BJP knew the issue, wanted to address it, but his obdurate stance cost them that PR.

In short, they had feedback from the ground, went looking for money, and were stymied.

CG, MP and Raj would have multiple factors for sure, but usually in life or business, you focus on the single biggest driver, then the others and fix that. Of course, BJP woukd know that, missteps like the SC/ST issue, urban disenchantenment apart.
srikumar wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 12:28 am
^^^Item # A on your list would be alarming....if indeed if it took a loss in 3 state elections for BJP leadership to be -aware- that (a) it has a problem, and (b) the problem is farmer distress.

I am assuming/hoping that BHP knew before The polling was complete that it would lose. If this not the case, that is a bigger problem that it does not have a handle on the issues and voting patten. I am not ready to believe that there was only one single cause that BJP lost (in MP or RJ). CG loss might have had one single cause because the the defeat was not close.

Good news is that this loss has shocked some people out of complacency, and maybe galvanized other groups as to what may happen if they don't act.

where is niran these days? He had ground level info.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vriksh » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:11 am

Well said.
Gus wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 8:49 am
the ultra rich in US managed to do that by creating tea-party and pull regular republicans and democrats to the right, and held a primary threat and a veto in house.

there are a lot of things that needs to happen to get that sort of thing - lots of funds, media machinery etc, organization and a pan-national appeal based on certain emotive issues, an electorate that is already primed to absorb the talking points and willing to go out and vote etc.

none of these things exist in India to create a 'right to BJP' party.

all these nota nonsense, core hindutva party blah blah are all devices to suppress bjp votes and bring rahul to power.

there is nothing to argue here. NOTA = CORE = PIDI.

get in line behind modi or out yourself as pidi, instead of hiding behind nota, core, more right, what did modi do bla blah..

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vriksh » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:13 am

He can keep his strength of conviction after returning to power. First, let him return. We need that.

Vikas wrote:
Fri Dec 21, 2018 7:04 am
One thing if we have understood about NaMo is his strength of conviction. he is not going to dole out money or give freebies.
Not happening as much as people on SM make noise about it.
Remember lot of SM noise is old sleeper cells of Luyten system awakening with hope of getting some crumbs post Dec elections.

Anyhow Path to Delhi kingdom was never easy especially for outsiders from South of Delhi.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:21 am

RLSP in Bihar: last I heard it is headed for a split. Kushwaha and 1 other MP have joined the Congi alliance whereas the third MP is said to be behaving "independently". The 3 MLAs of the party in Bihar claim they are with NDA and will be applying to the EC to be recognized as the "real RLSP".

All along expected lines: the MLAs don't want to be in the opposition in the assembly whereas Kushwaha knows he isn't really needed in the NDA and has nothing to lose by leaving.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:35 am

chinmayanand wrote:From being a Modi Bhakt , I have switched sides
This was at Fri Dec 21, 2018 1:01 am.
chinmayanand wrote:This is the kind of people , few Blind-Bhakts over here are promoting. As per Sanatan shashtras, Varna vyvastha was applied by "Manu" on his children "Manushya" but BJP of today wants to apply it forcibly on "Vaanar" species too .
This was at Fri Dec 21, 2018 2:29 pm :lol:. Your yourself admitted that you were a Modi Bhakt; which means that you were also aware of the political & religion based stance of BJP (and the Sangh Parivar). And now in few hours you have categorised all Modi Bhakt as blind-bhakts and BJP politicians all to be sub-standard. Were you not aware of all this when you were a Modi Bhakt?

It is better to actually spell out your political stance quite openly (rather than act as an ex-Modi Bhakt). Acting as a Modi lover now turned Modi hater has become an old tale. This forum has seen many such people before.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:48 am

Overall the situation with NDA allies looks fairly solid as of now....

Things look stable in the Northeast (NEDA), PB (Akalis),and UP (Apna Dal).

BH seems OK with JDU...and Paswan will likely remain on board after some negotiations.

GA also seems OK. No dramatics yet from MGP et al.

MH is the only state with an alliance partner that is a serious pain in the neck.

States in which the party could find it useful to enter into new alliances: AP (maybe YSRC, minus missionary baggage), TN (AIADMK), and Jharkhand (JMM ?)

In other states BJP does not need any alliance. In TG it is probably better to stay away from KCR and let him cut into the UPA nationally with his "federal front" attempts.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Fri Dec 21, 2018 9:52 am

Just a bit of state level news. But can expose the total mismanagement of a road transport corporation and life in the only existing "communist heaven" in India as of today.

Temporary conductors can be appointed only if law permits: HC.

Kerala RTC is the highest loss making public transport corporation now operating in the country. This RTC was also employing lots of people on a daily wage mode; who were all categorised as "empanelled" employees. They were to be asked to perform mainly the job of bus conductors when the regular staff was not available. The maximum wages they could get was around Rs. 9000 p.m. Politicians of every hue & colour (especially the communists) have given such "jobs" to many people based on political ideology or by accepting money. The regular staff of the RTC was happy to have such "daily wage" employees as they could take unscheduled leaves, or skip trips to rough routes (hilly terrain etc.). The "empanelled" staff were not entitled to any benefits like PF or Gratuity etc.

Now there have been lots of folks who are on the "Conductors Rank List" of the Kerala PSC. They have been sitting on the rank list for years now. Some of the filed a case in Kerala High Court. The verdict was quite a drastic one. The "empanelled" staff was to be dismissed the very next day, and Kerala RTC have to start taking candidates from the "Rank List". The High Court gave no leeway to Kerala RTC and ensured that the ordered was complied with. "Empanelled" staff with 9 or even 12 year service found themselves dismissed over night. Kerala RTC also have to now quickly train the new recruits taken in from the rank list.

The sheer desperation in Kerala for a government job is quite alarming. One one side are the graduates and post graduates appearing for PSC exams and waiting for eternity for the post of a bus conductor. On the other side are "daily wage" labourers like "empanelled" staff who are just surviving on the pittance given to them as daily wage by Ke. SRTC. Most of this group also had hopes on becoming "regularised" (the politicians have promised that), and have also not bothered to see alternate jobs etc.

And when all this happens Go.KL is on a "Mission Rennaisance" by building a woman's wall (using tax payer money). Govt money for women wall: Move sparks controversy. People who donated money to the Keralam CM's relif funds should be happy to see the funds getting used for such acts of "Renaissance".

Mean while at Gujrath - Sohrabuddin fake encounter case: All accused acquitted.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chinmayanand » Fri Dec 21, 2018 10:30 am

It's indeed shocking to me how low BJP and Sangh can go to get Hindu votes. All these years , they have been shouting " Mandir Wahin Banayenge " . We voted BJP in power . During Shiladan , the then Deputy Prime Minister Shri Advani ji proclaimed that it was a NDA govt and committed to NDA manifesto. When BJP would get a clear mandate of its own , it would construct the temple.

Come 2014, BJP got clear mandate and the junta of UP , fed of muslim appeasement policies of SP and BSP gave a clear mandate to BJP in UP too. Now BJP says that the temple issue is pending in court . What The Hell !!! It was pending in court in 1992 also. Now I feel BJP and Sangh has betrayed Hindus. I feel cheated . Yogi ji and his govt , whom I had high hopes from , have jumped a few notches higher. Now Hanuman ji has become a punching bag for them. Yesterday they declared him a Dalit , today two of Yogi MLAs have declared him as muslim and jat . What next ? Tomorrow he will be declared as Christian and Jew too.

I do not see BJP and Sangh carrying the promises they made .
Instead they seem to be mocking Hindu religious sentiments.

If BJP brought a bill in the parliament for construction of Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and if the bill got defeated, I would have felt proud that BJP did what they could politically and expose the pseudo-secular parties as anti-Hindu but No ! Ram Mandir is missing not only on the priority of the Apex Court but on the priority of BJP and Sangh too.

In 2014, Modi was calling for Charcha on article 370 but when he got power in Delhi , he forgot about article 370. The very separatists he used to cuss and curse , he joined with them to form govt. To please his new found Mehbooba , Modi from stage denied doing anything against article 370 so that his govt alliance can go on . He cheated those voters who believed in removal of Art 370 and UCC. For a moment , even if I forgave Modi and believed in Sangh's chanakian policies , Modi ditched Mehbooba few months before elections so as not to be seen pandering to muslims. This was a googly. I do not see Modi as even a single bit different from lowly pseudo-sec politicians. Modi is as power hungry as one can get. He needs to be in power by hook or crook and when he is in power , he forgets what he stands for , what he and his party and Sangh stand for. For Modi and Shah , it is all about money . Modi is a good actor on real political stage changing colours like chameleon betraying his voters at every corner.

When Modi govt got names of people holding accounts in banks abroad , I guess the list was from Germany , his govt made it a condition in the Apex Court for the names to be not disclosed.
This coming from a man who promised to bring back 70 lac crores of black money from abroad within 100 days was a chilling thrill.

Point after point , promise after promise Modi backtracked .
Come Nov 8 , 2016 . News channels announced an important announcement by PM at night. Modi met the three service chiefs , I was expecting some announcement of one more surgical strike but Modi stunned the nation with " Aaj raat 12 baje se 500 aur 1000 ke note legal tender nahi rahenge " Wow !! Now the black money was to come out . Modi , Jaitley and RBI , they changed 84 rules within a few days . RBI said something , FM said something else. Nobody knew who was in charge . The nation left everything and stood in queue for the black money to come out and India to progress. Yesterday I read a tweet from Jaitley saying " Govt did not know what GOOD came out of demonetization as it did not carry out any study " Super-wow !!! I am speechless at the wizardry and genius of people running this Modi govt.

After disrupting the economy , RBI tells us that over 99% of the erstwhile 500 and 1000 re notes have been deposited. So, where is the black money ? It ain't abroad , it ain't at home . WOW !!!

Since 1000 re was a big denomination and was easy for the corrupt to move cash , Modi introduced a denomination of 2000 re note to curb corruption. I am speechless.

This post already has gone long. Will write my thoughts later in some other post. You call me AaPturd , congressi or ban me , it ai'nt gonna change my perception of Modi . I used to call him an " Avtari purush " now I think he is just another political thug.
On my assessment of his promises and delivery , he has failed miserably .

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