Election Discussions - National, State etc

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Vikas
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Vikas » Thu May 31, 2018 7:55 am

Do these trend say something about upcoming state elections and eventually the GE ? I am kind of a fence sitter on reading too much into these election results although now it is for sure that BJP will be facing a Mahagathbandhan in all the elections from now onwards.
I do see some realignment with SS and JDU parting ways with BJP by 2019. PDP too may decide to part ways post 2019.
If Govt can not control inflation due to high Gas prices in coming months, This may be curtains for BJP majority in next GE. Statistics and numbers are for drawing room warriors, people on the ground vote with what they see happening around them.

What will KCR and NCBN will do is anyones guess.

PS: Where are those who kept insulting anyone who would raise questions against NM sarkaar mocking them to go and vote for pappu ( I was unhappy with the way demon was done and on BRF, I was mockingly asked by a known poster, How much did I lose in Black money).
Now they might as well elect Pappu as PM.
Same for those who think Modi is not Hindutava enough so don't vote for him.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by darshhan » Thu May 31, 2018 8:25 am

Dont worry Vikas babu. These are just bypolls. As far as kairana is concerned, the most important issue is Islam for both hindu and muslim voters. It is a question of both eventual dominance and survival.

Now hindu voters are generally lethargic during bypolls. But will they be lethargic during 2019? That is the question.

darshhan
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by darshhan » Thu May 31, 2018 8:27 am

Ofcourse during this one year people of kairana will also get to know the conduct of islamic representative they have elected.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by MehtaRahulC » Thu May 31, 2018 8:55 am

A big class of voters, as high as 20%, votes for PM / CM and not MP / MLA. These voters sleep during bypolls. Also, many who voted for psuedo-socialist SP in bypoll may vote for psuedo-nationalist RSS = BJP in the main poll.

So imo bypoll are very WEAK indicator of what voters may do in main poll.

It shows that voters are less enthusiatic about RSS = BJP now.

So come may-2019, all will depend on how elitemen ask paidmedia to project RSS, AAP, congress etc etc. The voters are no longer very deeply hopeful about anyone

Indrad
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Indrad » Thu May 31, 2018 9:46 am

VikasSaraswat

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Gorakhpur, Phoolpur and now #Kairana - toilets, cylinders and bank accounts, despite sterling delivery, are apparently making little dent. A large number of core voter, however, has been antagonised.
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As I said earlier, in Noorpur, Muslims alone are over 50%..
In Kairana, Muslim+Jatavs over 50%..

BJP never had a chance..
Section of Jatavs voted "Modi" in 2014 & may also do so in 2019 bu not in a bypoll..

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Indrad » Thu May 31, 2018 9:51 am

some dalit BJP supporters like Abhinav Prakash are constantly saying that Yogi's govt has only given plum posts to upper castes: breaking Hindu coalition partly.

JohnTitor
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by JohnTitor » Thu May 31, 2018 10:07 am

^^ sure, but haven't the demographics have changed since 2014? That'll mean a guaranteed loss for BJP. And yet BJP sings the secular tune.

JohnTitor
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by JohnTitor » Thu May 31, 2018 10:28 am

darshhan wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 8:25 am
Dont worry Vikas babu. These are just bypolls. As far as kairana is concerned, the most important issue is Islam for both hindu and muslim voters. It is a question of both eventual dominance and survival.

Now hindu voters are generally lethargic during bypolls. But will they be lethargic during 2019? That is the question.
The numbers are stacked against Hindus. Even if 100% Hindus vote for BJP, they can't win. That's demographics for you

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Supratik » Thu May 31, 2018 1:17 pm

My by poll analysis. Assembly bypolls are too local to draw any inference. Mostly the incumbents have won except one seat in BH which is in the Muslim dominated belt. JDU lost as it is now in alliance with BJP. LS numbers are BJP+ 2, other 2. BJP needs to mend fences with SS in MH for the time being as nationalist forces are still not that strong where they can fight each other and still win. Combined vote of INC and NCP will be higher than either BJP or SS. If they combine they will sweep MH. BJP needs to give SS similar number of seats as in 2014. This is not the time for one upmanship as far greater is at stake. The only other problem I see is in UP. Both Kairana and Noorpur have heavy Muslim population and judging from the fall in voting percent BJP voters may have stayed home. Either they are not enthused as they will be enthused voting for Modi or there are specific reasons like Yogi's inability so far to solve the sugarcane issue. Clearly, Yogi has not been able to spread his control over the state and is struggling. There are comments against both deputy CMs and caste discrimination. The pie needs to be spread among all the castes who backed BJP. Yogi clearly needs course correction. UP will give Modi-Shah trouble due to sheer arithmetic and they should assume in their calculation that opposition will be united. The best opportunity to derail Modi lies in UP. So there will be a lot of pressure from BIFs for opposition unity in UP.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by abhijit » Thu May 31, 2018 2:54 pm

UP workers are spread across country. No one will travel home just to vote in a bypoll. General election is different ball game all together. People are transported in trucks, trains.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KL Dubey » Thu May 31, 2018 3:20 pm

LS bypolls done with. A near-nonevent hyped up beyond all recognition by the media. Party did excellently to give Shiva sena a slap. Also consolidated in North East. Kairana and Gondiya - as in 2014 - will vote BJP again in 2019. People know the difference between a bypoll and a real one.

I'm not even bothered to discuss the assembly bypolls, there are of no consequence.

Udhhav is a brainless and graceless dork. Instead of understanding that all Hindoos need to stick together under one leader (and its not him), he and his equally dumb partymen like Aditya, Sanjay etc are still at the street fighting level. Lawd Shiva should open his third eye and incinerate these morons.

PS: Oh wait, will there be another bypoll for the two KA seats vacated by BSY and Sriramulu ? Or will these just remain vacant till GE 2019 ?

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KJo » Thu May 31, 2018 3:35 pm

BJP won 282 in 2014. Now the number is down to about 271.

Vikas
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Vikas » Thu May 31, 2018 4:04 pm

If nothing else victory in these bypolls have give Mahagathbandan, a recipe to defeat BJP. Good for Congress at least.
Bypolls are for optics purpose too. We will know if these elections show a trend or just flash in a pan once Middle India goes to election.
Darshan ji, Voters being lethargic during bypolls should be true for all the communities since it doesn't change the big picture and some cases, the life of the elected official is less than a year. Why only BJP voters are lethargic ?

Modi Ji need to revisit the election manifesto and his speeches of 2014 and start working towards fulfilling some of them. 2019 will not be won by blaming congress or its past deeds. This time he will be the defender and congress the challenger.
It is going to be a cliff hanger. Someone somewhere has figured out the secret sauce of tackling BJP and it seems to be working.

Vikas
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Vikas » Thu May 31, 2018 4:08 pm

darshhan wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 8:27 am
Ofcourse during this one year people of kairana will also get to know the conduct of islamic representative they have elected.
People have been electing Islamists and almost Islamists for donkey number of years across UP/BH/WB. Hardly a marker for people to vote otherwise.
If my reading of tea leaves is right, We might see mini riots coming soon. Helps showing BJP in bad light by opposition but on the other hand, Helps BJP in polarization and consolidation.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KL Dubey » Thu May 31, 2018 4:47 pm

KJo wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 3:35 pm
BJP won 282 in 2014. Now the number is down to about 271.
Repeating myself for the last time. It is 274 now in a house of 540 (in which the majority mark is 271).

KL Dubey
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KL Dubey » Thu May 31, 2018 4:50 pm

Vikas wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 4:04 pm
Voters being lethargic during bypolls should be true for all the communities since it doesn't change the big picture and some cases, the life of the elected official is less than a year. Why only BJP voters are lethargic ?
"Minority" voters are much less lethargic since the mullah or padre is always around to give a stern warning. Many Hindoo voters - more middle class, professional/trader/laborers etc - will not go to vote in a bypoll since it takes up too much time.

la.khan
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by la.khan » Thu May 31, 2018 5:21 pm

Vikas wrote: Someone somewhere has figured out the secret sauce of tackling BJP and it seems to be working.
Nothing secret, sir. Unite all other communities and divide the majority using caste :evil:

Vikas
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Vikas » Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:16 am

^^ True but it took them time to figure out how to divide Hindus around election time. Earlier it was given that Hindus are divided.
BJP supporters would be living in fools paradise if they think that NM alone would be sufficient to get them over in 2019. The push and effort required in 2019 probably is much more than 2014.
On top this Oil price increase may bite BJP hard.

PS: The only thing that can save BJP is if RG is declared as PM face of opposition.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Sachin » Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:46 am

KL Dubey wrote:Repeating myself for the last time. It is 274 now in a house of 540 (in which the majority mark is 271).
And that is BJP alone. Their allies like ADMK and Shiv Sena are still with them. Shiv Sena for all its gung ho posture has not even pulled out one of their MPs from the Govt. The NDA even now retains total majority in Lok Sabha. We need to see what is the latest status in Rajya Sabha.

And to be frank, the main stream media has been in a happy mood, but the rejoicement seems to be a bit muffled. I was expecting more hungama, but nothing of that sort happened.
"Minority" voters are much less lethargic since the mullah or padre is always around to give a stern warning.
I also feel that "minority" communities have also realised the true impact of being a "minority". Earlier their "minorityism" was only to fool people. Every government machinery was actually working FOR them. For a change they now see their old clout getting reduced. The fear of losing the clout is also a prime motive to go and change the situation. The majority community on the other hand have no such thoughts. They are still believing that they are still high when it comes to numbers and some one else would do the hard work when the time comes.
Vikas wrote:If my reading of tea leaves is right, We might see mini riots coming soon. Helps showing BJP in bad light by opposition but on the other hand, Helps BJP in polarization and consolidation.
That tactic was tried out in Coastal Karnataka. And the "seculars" got out with a bloody nose. In the last election Coastal Karnataka was completely in the BJP bucket. Communal polarisation actually helped the BJP.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by BhairavP » Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:22 am

Supratik wrote:
Thu May 31, 2018 1:17 pm
My by poll analysis. Assembly bypolls are too local to draw any inference. Mostly the incumbents have won except one seat in BH which is in the Muslim dominated belt. JDU lost as it is now in alliance with BJP. LS numbers are BJP+ 2, other 2. BJP needs to mend fences with SS in MH for the time being as nationalist forces are still not that strong where they can fight each other and still win. Combined vote of INC and NCP will be higher than either BJP or SS. If they combine they will sweep MH. BJP needs to give SS similar number of seats as in 2014. This is not the time for one upmanship as far greater is at stake. The only other problem I see is in UP. Both Kairana and Noorpur have heavy Muslim population and judging from the fall in voting percent BJP voters may have stayed home. Either they are not enthused as they will be enthused voting for Modi or there are specific reasons like Yogi's inability so far to solve the sugarcane issue. Clearly, Yogi has not been able to spread his control over the state and is struggling. There are comments against both deputy CMs and caste discrimination. The pie needs to be spread among all the castes who backed BJP. Yogi clearly needs course correction. UP will give Modi-Shah trouble due to sheer arithmetic and they should assume in their calculation that opposition will be united. The best opportunity to derail Modi lies in UP. So there will be a lot of pressure from BIFs for opposition unity in UP.
In MH, if the SS breaks up with the BJP, they're finished. Their goose is cooked - even in Konkan, they only won some LS seats due to their tie-up with the BJP in 2014. Even in my constituency of Mumbai-South their MP is an unknown. If they are stupid enough (read Sanjay Raut convincing UT) to break up, they will splinter - the BJP will rake up corruption in the BMC (which is endemic!) and paint them a pro-Muslim party for supporting parties like the TMC and INC indirectly.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Vikas » Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:23 pm

But key question remains, If BJP can not repeat 100% of 2014, from where they will get majority in 2019 ?

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KL Dubey » Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:50 pm

BhairavP wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:22 am
In MH, if the SS breaks up with the BJP, they're finished. Their goose is cooked - even in Konkan, they only won some LS seats due to their tie-up with the BJP in 2014. Even in my constituency of Mumbai-South their MP is an unknown. If they are stupid enough (read Sanjay Raut convincing UT) to break up, they will splinter - the BJP will rake up corruption in the BMC (which is endemic!) and paint them a pro-Muslim party for supporting parties like the TMC and INC indirectly.
I predicted before that SS cannot even win 5 seats in 2019 if they go alone. BJP spokesperson yesterday said the same thing on Republic TV. If they go with "united opposition" they may not even win 1 seat since much of their votebank will go for the BJP.

They should either come back to full alliance in NDA with no funny conditions, or prepare for bust in 2019. Meanwhile Devendra Farnavis (mocked by many here as "David Fernandes" and what not) is doing solid work and slowly pulling the rug from under all these morons...SS, NCP, INC etc.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KL Dubey » Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:55 pm

Vikas wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:23 pm
But key question remains, If BJP can not repeat 100% of 2014, from where they will get majority in 2019 ?
Arre yaar, bachhon waale savaal mat poocho. BJP ko purna bahumat milega, nahin to NDA to milega, aur yadi inme se ek bhi nahin mila to vipaksh me baithna padega. Aur kya ?

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Supratik » Fri Jun 01, 2018 4:35 pm

Do hard bargaining in MH but keep the alliance.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Gus » Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:25 pm

Vikas wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 3:23 pm
But key question remains, If BJP can not repeat 100% of 2014, from where they will get majority in 2019 ?
a week is a long time in politics...a year is an eternity.

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