Election Discussions - National, State etc

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abhik
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by abhik » Tue May 15, 2018 8:38 am

Indrad wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 8:12 am
so far 222 seats declared

BJP 108 [48.2%
INC 73 [32.%6
JD(S) 38 [17%
Other parties 3 1[.3%

at nearly 50% vote share BJP is like a beast impossible to defeat, I am 100% sure this margin has not translated into big win cos of Guj reasons (first past the post).

BJP needs to woo some MLAs from independent & JDs it seems. It will certainly get first opportunity to form govt.
Those are percentage of seats and not vote share, which is less than 40%

madhub
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by madhub » Tue May 15, 2018 8:39 am

bjp loosing :)) :)) :))

Indrad
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Indrad » Tue May 15, 2018 8:50 am

final tally

BJP 106

Cong 73

JDS+ 41

others 2
magic number 112

Hari Seldon
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Hari Seldon » Tue May 15, 2018 8:56 am

Time now reporting that JDS has accepted INC proposition and will stake claim tomorrow.

As of now, INC + JDS = 114. INC has offered CM gaddi to HDK.

Aditya_V
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Aditya_V » Tue May 15, 2018 9:08 am

If they join to form Government but fight General elections seperately BJP could get 20-25 out of 28 for Karnataka

Indrad
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Indrad » Tue May 15, 2018 9:12 am

but won't BJP get first invite for highest number?

Sachin
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Sachin » Tue May 15, 2018 9:13 am

Hari Seldon wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 8:56 am
Time now reporting that JDS has accepted INC proposition and will stake claim tomorrow.
And there are no counter proposals from the BJP team at this point of time. Don't know if that is again deliberate :twisted: . Even if BJP wins the two bye-elections the final tally would only be 108, and even if they rope in the two independents it is 110. 113 is the magic number.

gauravsh
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by gauravsh » Tue May 15, 2018 10:02 am

that's a similar pattern to guj result. Post lunch we saw a similar decline in bjp's number.

Dumal
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Dumal » Tue May 15, 2018 10:22 am

Don't mean to hurt anyone's sensibilities... This is almost exactly what I was hoping for and probably something I even posted somewhere in BGR.

This leaves a mark on KA politics showing BJP head and shoulders over Con and JDS. But the historically murky governance of the state will go to the losers and they will muck it up even further. It breaks up old Con party patronages and shakes it up with HDK's own coterie for the most part. I think all of which will position BJP well for the 2019 elections in addition to giving them some bragging rights for the upcoming state elections (if any). KA people and businesses (including all those selling out to Veerashaiva as a religion tactics, etc) will hopefully see better & decide better when the next chance for change comes.

Sachin
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Sachin » Tue May 15, 2018 10:37 am

Dumal wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 10:22 am
Don't mean to hurt anyone's sensibilities... This is almost exactly what I was hoping for and probably something I even posted somewhere in BGR.
I think most of us started with the "hung assembly" at the start of the day, went euphoric after the initial results came. And now it is time to face the reality. My gut feeling is that the central BJP folks may have just passed the buck to the state BJP leaders (!?) to sort out the issues.I don't think BJP did not think of "hung assembly"; they have thought about it and their current plan is to sit at the fence.

Raj Malhotra
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Raj Malhotra » Tue May 15, 2018 10:46 am

The magic number is 111 neither 113 nor 112

Raj Malhotra
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Raj Malhotra » Tue May 15, 2018 10:47 am

The magic number is 111 neither 113 nor 112

Singha
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Singha » Tue May 15, 2018 11:49 am

staking a claim for BJP only makes sense if they can create a huge split in the JDS. else better to bide ones time and let the inevitable loot and fighting between JDS and INC create a bad impression, and hope to get a strong mandate in 2019 and thereafter in state elections.

Dumal
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Dumal » Tue May 15, 2018 11:54 am

Sachin wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 10:37 am
I think most of us started with the "hung assembly" at the start of the day, went euphoric after the initial results came. And now it is time to face the reality.
Actually I made the decision today not to follow the coverage blow by blow... I suffered through the roller coaster of Bihar and almost each one since then. This time I did not get the first update until 2.30 or 3 and that too only from the last few posts on this thread.

suryag
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by suryag » Tue May 15, 2018 11:55 am

Here is where the reddy brothers can come into picture
, do they have hold on jd(s) legislators?

patni
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by patni » Tue May 15, 2018 12:02 pm

I for one hope that BJP plays by the book! let governor take a call based on post-poll alliance letter that JDS and INC gives him. Let the mismanagement of state be clear to all and maybe in time for 2019 check if have a split in INC & JDS is on cards. I am sure both will be looking over their shoulders all the time!

KL Dubey
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KL Dubey » Tue May 15, 2018 12:35 pm

Oh well!

A spectacular show by the party in KA. Whatever happenx next, it is clear that most of the state has turned saffron. Let us see how things play out at the Guvnor's crib.

KL Dubey
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KL Dubey » Tue May 15, 2018 12:36 pm

Oh well!

A spectacular show by the party in KA. Whatever happens next, it is clear that most of the state has turned saffron. Let us see how things play out at the Guvnor's crib.

Gus
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Gus » Tue May 15, 2018 1:14 pm

gents - did siddu win both his? so by-election in one of them?

i am surprised at the low number of independents and others - was it always like this?

SSundar
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by SSundar » Tue May 15, 2018 1:19 pm

If I had superpowers and I was a perfect being, I still would not have been able to create a more perfect outcome than this in KA 8-) . For several good reasons, this is the best outcome possible. KA will be back in BJP hands after 2019 is the icing on the cake.

And a Yeevil Yindu Superstition about KA lives on :D .

Sachin
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Sachin » Tue May 15, 2018 1:19 pm

Gus wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 1:14 pm
gents - did siddu win both his? so by-election in one of them?
Nope. Siddu lost Chamundeshwari, but won at Badami (Sriramulu of BJP lost there). Siddu Jr. won from Varuna.

Deans
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Deans » Tue May 15, 2018 1:34 pm

patni wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 12:02 pm
I for one hope that BJP plays by the book! let governor take a call based on post-poll alliance letter that JDS and INC gives him. Let the mismanagement of state be clear to all and maybe in time for 2019 check if have a split in INC & JDS is on cards. I am sure both will be looking over their shoulders all the time!
I'm hoping this will happen. With the State mismanaged by the JDS-Cong combine, BJP should be well placed to sweep the State during LS 2019
and perhaps before that do a Bihar on the JDS-Cong, and have fresh elections to coincide with LS 19.

merlin
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by merlin » Tue May 15, 2018 2:09 pm

Gus wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 1:14 pm
gents - did siddu win both his? so by-election in one of them?
Siddu lost Chamundeshwari and narrowly won Badami (less than 1700 votes margin) so no by-election needed.

However HDK won both his seats, so by-election in one. But more importantly it reduces half way mark to 111 (224-2-1=221, 221/2 + 1 = 111).

chetak
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by chetak » Tue May 15, 2018 2:25 pm

Singha wrote:
Tue May 15, 2018 11:49 am
staking a claim for BJP only makes sense if they can create a huge split in the JDS. else better to bide ones time and let the inevitable loot and fighting between JDS and INC create a bad impression, and hope to get a strong mandate in 2019 and thereafter in state elections.
Even engineered abstentions in the congi + JDS combine will work, if BJP gets the first crack at govt formation and the floor test ballot is held in secret.

Such fence sitters and folks who will not benefit with any govt cabinet or ministerial post or even a nice plump well paying sinecure like the chairmanship of some govt entity are already known. An appeal to their "conscience" may work wonders as long as the proper salve is applied.

Everyone needs money to fight the next elections and put something away for a rainy day, especially the non cabinet ministerial and the loser types and the fence sitters among the elected MLAs of congi + JDS combine.

Yeddy passes the floor test, loses the no confidence motion that comes along a bit later, a spell of president's rule follows, ripping the entrails out of the money making schemes of all the others wanting to use KAR as an ATM.

A well managed bout of President's rule following which the 2019 elections are held.

Mort Walker
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Mort Walker » Tue May 15, 2018 2:55 pm

The JDS and INC had no declared alliance until today. The INC moved fast to rope in the JDS. This was most likely done with the movement of money bags. The question is where did the INC get the crores to do this? I would speculate that foreign BIF forces and some foreign governments facilitated the money transfer.

I believe the FCRA was amended to exempt political parties. If someone can confirm this exemption please?

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