Election Discussions - National, State etc

News and Discussions about politics, current affairs, international relations, economy, elections, state level politics etc.
This forum is strictly moderated.
sanjayC
BGR Member
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:31 pm

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by sanjayC » Sat May 12, 2018 3:55 pm

Image

hanumadu
BGR Oldie
Posts: 606
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:20 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by hanumadu » Sat May 12, 2018 3:56 pm

Times Now - VMR exit poll predicts 94 for BJP, 97 for congress.
Times Now - Todays Chanakya predicts 120 for BJP.

Times Now is truly covering its ass.
One channel supports BJP, another supports congis.

crams
Forum Moderator
Posts: 624
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:28 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sat May 12, 2018 3:59 pm

Maybe split the difference, 107 for BJP :-). Not bad but still not majority.

Aditya_V
BGR Member
Posts: 344
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:26 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Aditya_V » Sun May 13, 2018 3:12 am

Quite frankly as shown in the past all exit polls are blind gimmikry. 12 o clock Tuesday morning we will know what is the truth

Supratik
Forum Moderator
Posts: 592
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:50 pm

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Supratik » Sun May 13, 2018 12:35 pm

PP latest analysis is confusing. Heading says BJP has edge but content says Congress may win.

http://5forty3.in/gaze_articles.php?articalid=213

JohnTitor
BGR Member
Posts: 422
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 4:09 pm

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by JohnTitor » Sun May 13, 2018 12:45 pm

As I said a few months ago, unlikely BJP will walk away with a victory in KA. Lots of people I know who supported Modi previously decided to vote NOTA. I do hope I'm wrong though.

Having said that BJP has very poor state leaders here. Yeddi is a joke.

crams
Forum Moderator
Posts: 624
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:28 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm

Supratik wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 12:35 pm
PP latest analysis is confusing. Heading says BJP has edge but content says Congress may win.

http://5forty3.in/gaze_articles.php?articalid=213
Now I am going to be critical. This guy seems to be a lot of pedantic gas using lots of seemingly sophisticated analytics methods, but his conclusions swing wildly. Just 2 days ago, he was predicting a BJP win that will shock Congoons, ModiJi is a rock star yada yada, and now he is going the other way. I mean how can things change so dramatically in a matter of 2 days? Give me a break.

I think most likely, his earlier BS about a BJP landslide was wishful thinking and now he is getting a bit more sober. Either way, his prediction doesn't look any of the other polls despite his sophisticated methods. What this means is statistical predictive methods are inherently inaccurate when elections are close to call.

Deans
BGR Newbie
Posts: 71
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:46 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Deans » Sun May 13, 2018 2:16 pm

crams wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 1:58 pm

Now I am going to be critical. This guy seems to be a lot of pedantic gas using lots of seemingly sophisticated analytics methods, but his conclusions swing wildly. Just 2 days ago, he was predicting a BJP win that will shock Congoons, ModiJi is a rock star yada yada, and now he is going the other way. I mean how can things change so dramatically in a matter of 2 days? Give me a break.

I think most likely, his earlier BS about a BJP landslide was wishful thinking and now he is getting a bit more sober. Either way, his prediction doesn't look any of the other polls despite his sophisticated methods.
I agree. My understanding is that his model depends on observing trends in a large no of constituencies over time, That requires more resources
than even large research agencies can deploy. (how does he know for e.g. that X % of Muslims voted in a particular seat - even the big agencies will only have aggregate numbers). The second part of the model is converting vote shares to seats, which he may be arguably better than others, IF he has used more variables and has more base data to play around with. However, his articles sound like he is hedging. It is also difficult for research to be credible if its political leanings are fairly apparent (not that I disagree with them).

Supratik
Forum Moderator
Posts: 592
Joined: Wed Oct 04, 2017 5:50 pm

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Supratik » Sun May 13, 2018 2:33 pm

He changed his results during BH elections and did predict a AAP surge in DL. In general he gets the trend. But I think KT is hard to predict and he is not sure. Could be a hung assembly.

hanumadu
BGR Oldie
Posts: 606
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:20 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by hanumadu » Sun May 13, 2018 2:57 pm

I had a feeling that Modi did not campaign much in Karnataka.

Rajasthan, MP and a few other state elections scheduled for later this yer may be held with GE 2019 instead. That would save Modi and BJP workers some time and energy.

crams
Forum Moderator
Posts: 624
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:28 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sun May 13, 2018 3:47 pm

One thing is very very clear in my mind. Since the day ModiJi took office in 2014 the Congoons and their media put in place a scheme to nip in the bud any further consolidation of Dalits and other OBCs to the Hinduthva BJP camp. Had that trend continued, Amit Shah was 100% right that it will be Cong Mukt Bharat.

Thus, starting with Rohit Vemula to any hint of violence against Dalits or Muslims (violence is common place in India), the Congoon ecosystem went on overdrive exaggerating the Hindu fault lines and casting BJP is being on the side of the violent perpetrators using the 'upper caste' oppression of 'lower castes' idioms. The goal was to halt the Dalit/OBC slide to BJP. We saw that in play in Gujarat, we are seeing it in Karnataka.

Which ever way Karnataka elections go, and I do think BJP will form govt with JDS or independents, the break Hindus strategy of Congoons is succeeding. And we will see more of this as elections move to the Hindi belt and of course 2019 general elections. You can see it with BJP Dalit leaders being very uncomfortable being in BJP as their mass base shifts away. This crap about praising JInnah, blaming their own BJP cadres for the violence, not cutting govt any slack on the SC decision on SC/ST atrocities act, and other manufactured protests etc.

Bottom line: Congoon strategy of breaking Hindu vote is playing out in slow motion and succeeding. And contrary to Dorkie going on overdrive based on exit polls showing Cong likely in 2nd place, I don't think Pappu will lose any credibility, not one ounce even if Congoons come second in Karnataka.

KL Dubey
BGR Member
Posts: 397
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 5:39 pm

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KL Dubey » Sun May 13, 2018 6:07 pm

crams wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 3:43 pm
Fanne, not blaming bos, I like PP's analysis, just pointing out that polling is inherently flawed. Very tough to get a representative sample in swing situations.
That is fine, but he doesn't do any polling - that is sort of the whole point of his startup (5forty3). He calls his methodology MAPi - you can read some details about it on the website. It is a very interesting way of making election predictions. For this reason, he can continue making forecasts at any time all the way through the election since his data is based neither on conducting opinion polls nor exit polls. Like I said before, it is a brilliant setup that has proved correct (qualitatively at least) nearly 100% of the time. Let us see what happens this time.

I think his seat predictions have mostly been on the conservative side so I still believe in 115-120 seats for BJP this time. I hope I am right, but OK if I am not.

I agree with you though that it will be an NDA goremint (BJP alone or with JDS).

SSundar
BGR Member
Posts: 382
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:59 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by SSundar » Sun May 13, 2018 7:23 pm

crams wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 3:47 pm
The goal was to halt the Dalit/OBC slide to BJP. We saw that in play in Gujarat, we are seeing it in Karnataka.
Based on some of the caste-wise projections in Karnataka, there is a slightly different conclusion I would reach.
It is true that SC/ST are not consolidating behind BJP. In fact, they are splitting evenly without any visible wave. OFFICIAL SC/STs, that is!!!

Remember SC/ST is the target population for most religious conversions. An unknown number of this population is crypto. They are registered as Hindu SC/ST but will vote per the direction of the Padre/Mullah.

So, when you see a ~40% BJP and ~40% Congress split in this group, we cannot reach any conclusion on Dalit consolidation without knowing the actual percentage of cryptos there. Even the church does not have an accurate count on that group.

SSundar
BGR Member
Posts: 382
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2017 5:59 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by SSundar » Sun May 13, 2018 7:24 pm

KL Dubey wrote:
Sun May 13, 2018 6:07 pm
I agree with you though that it will be an NDA goremint (BJP alone or with JDS).
Dr. Gaurav Pradhan is backpedaling too. He is now predicting that Cong & JD(S) will form government with Mallikarjun Kharge as CM. Dalit card being lined up for the next wave of elections.

crams
Forum Moderator
Posts: 624
Joined: Sun Oct 08, 2017 5:28 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sun May 13, 2018 9:13 pm

Possible.

I doubt JDS will support BJP should both BJP and Congoons end up with roughly the same amount. It will be a Congoon JDS govt with a Dalit CM. It will be a master stroke that Cong high command will pull off. And to top it, Pappu will be giving the honors to the Dalit CM in a scripted media event where he will stand between Sidd and the Dalit candidate as this messiah. Can you imagine the party Lutyen perverts will be having? Burka bibi and Tavleen Singh's half Paki son will go berserk in WP/NYT. Pappu upholds the 'idea of India', BJP dealt a death blow for 2019 etc will be the kind of headlines in Lutyen's media, and I can bet you, those images of white-skinned Pappu (emphasizing his Italian origins) hand-in-hand with some dark-skinned Dalit will appear in NYT/WP sublimely conveying the anti-Hindu propaganda that upper caste Hindu nationalists "oppress" Dalits but someone of European heritage confers dignity on them.

But I still feel it will be BJP. I mean leave all the exit polls, but the hard fact is that ModiJi's rallies were massive, no denying that. He did swing the election BJP way towards the end. So if BJP reaches 105 or so on its own, independents could bridge the remaining gap, and even JDS will come under pressure to give support without having to beg them. I hope I am not wrong on this.

Raj Malhotra
BGR Newbie
Posts: 31
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:41 am
Location: Delhi

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Raj Malhotra » Mon May 14, 2018 3:12 am

If BJP crosses 100 then either JDS will join BJP or BJP can always break JDS & Do a Goa on them.

Frankly BJP whole play on Hindutava while doing nothing for Hindu s & everything for Wall Street is becoming thin.

I think BJP will neither play Hindutava nor Nationalism card in 2019, they will roll out Universal Subsistence Allowance & bamboo it's traditional middle class base again one last time.

Modi will drop pretence of Hindutava & Nationalism in 2019 and go all out for Christian Islamic votes

Singha
Forum Moderator
Posts: 484
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:59 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Singha » Mon May 14, 2018 3:15 am

JDS is sending loud smoke signals that its upto the INC to approach them for support and uphold the 'secular' agenda. their supremo has gone to singapore for a couple of days perhaps to hold 'talks' from there unhindered by media attention and spying.

they will not support for the BJP unless the INC gets very low seats such that INC + JDS is not enough.

JDS Jr and Sr also have some differences of opinion I think. Jr may be a bit more pragmatic , but his relations with Yeddy are poor ever since he refused to honour the 50:50 CM deal in the past, a really backstabbing kind of act that led to 2 quick elections.

JohnTitor
BGR Member
Posts: 422
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 4:09 pm

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by JohnTitor » Mon May 14, 2018 3:22 am

This will be a JDS-Congoon combine.

BJP can go back to sleep.

hanumadu
BGR Oldie
Posts: 606
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:20 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by hanumadu » Mon May 14, 2018 3:28 am

Singha wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 3:15 am

they will not support for the BJP unless the INC gets very low seats such that INC + JDS is not enough.
If JDS + INC is not enough, it means BJP has majority or very close to it.

merlin
BGR Newbie
Posts: 18
Joined: Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:32 pm

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by merlin » Mon May 14, 2018 3:37 am

Raj Malhotra wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 3:12 am
I think BJP will neither play Hindutava nor Nationalism card in 2019, they will roll out Universal Subsistence Allowance & bamboo it's traditional middle class base again one last time.

Modi will drop pretence of Hindutava & Nationalism in 2019 and go all out for Christian Islamic votes
This is what I suspect as well. Completely drop Hindutva and Nationalism in 2019. Complete surrender to the Islamists in Haryana indicates this, notwithstanding playing up Tipu in KA which didn't get any traction.

Sachin
BGR Oldie
Posts: 713
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:25 pm

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Sachin » Mon May 14, 2018 6:03 am

Singha wrote:JDS Jr and Sr also have some differences of opinion I think. Jr may be a bit more pragmatic , but his relations with Yeddy are poor ever since he refused to honour the 50:50 CM deal in the past, a really backstabbing kind of act that led to 2 quick elections.
Siddaramiah has also said that this would be the last elections he would be contesting and he is also not expecting the CM post again. This also opens up good opportunities for Congress and JD(S) to form up a "secular" alliance. You are right, Yeddy & Jr. Gowdaru joining hands would be a bit difficult considering the past episodes.
merlin wrote:This is what I suspect as well. Completely drop Hindutva and Nationalism in 2019.
In that case BJP's chances of being a big political party in India would also be left for ever. If BJP's pro-Hindutwa (or the lack of it) is exposed, the party would be finished; Modi or no Modi. And this also means that even with BJP ruling India, the strings are being pulled from other countries. That is the same theory which BJP uses to bash up the Congress; i.e rule is through Italy by other powerful countries.

Aditya_V
BGR Member
Posts: 344
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:26 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Aditya_V » Mon May 14, 2018 6:44 am

No wonder nobody takes the Hindu vote seriously. The secular vote is much more stable and assured and not asked to justify it.

Hari Seldon
BGR Oldie
Posts: 570
Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:01 am

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Hari Seldon » Mon May 14, 2018 7:07 am

Aditya_V wrote:
Mon May 14, 2018 6:44 am
No wonder nobody takes the Hindu vote seriously. The secular vote is much more stable and assured and not asked to justify it.
Partly agree with you saar, but must also mention the following:

1. The Hindu vote has had only 2 chances at using Union govt power - the ABV era and now the Modi era. This is unlike the psec ecosystem which had decades to grow fat on and entrench itself in.

2. Sadly, in neither case (ABV or NM) did the union govt, top-down (PM downwards) clearly articulate (much less market) an "even playing field" mantra that would help us Hindoos get rid of a number of fundamental, baked-into-law handicaps that cripple our ability to compete with the mainorities on an even footing.

3. All past attempts that rubbish the 'saffron vote' do so on the basis of half-baked attempts at unifying the Hindu vote. The only time it succeeded was in 2014 because a crucial component of the Modi wave was the unspoken but expectant saffron component. We continue to wait for articulate Modi ji to articulate our causes and concerns as well.

4. E.g., where in the campaign did Modi himself raise the Tipu glorification issue? Or the Shaadi Bhagya scheme that explicitly discriminates against Hindu brides? Or theblatant attempt to divide the Hindu vote on the basis of the Lingayat-separate religion circus? Or the constant attempts to take over and interfere in the running of our Mutts and shrines? Or the wanton daylight murders of RSS and Hindu activists by the PFI? Etc etc. Its one thing Amit shah talking about them. Its quite another when a Modi does so. And he has chosen not to.

5. However, with each passing election, campaign speech and parliament session, it becomes clear we don't quite seem to matter much to the Modi calculus or the Modi machine. Fine, what can we do about it I guess. It hasn;t escaped notice that Modi has said and done more to woo a mainority vote that won't come to BJP rather than pay even lip service to a 'core' saffron vote that wants to believe in and work for Modi. Theek hai.

Oh, JMTPs and all that. Standard disclaimers etc.

Raj Malhotra
BGR Newbie
Posts: 31
Joined: Mon Jan 01, 2018 4:41 am
Location: Delhi

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Raj Malhotra » Mon May 14, 2018 11:16 am

BJP core aim is to remain in power. When 2002 riots took place, Modi was not powerful enough to stop RW running amok. Thereafter he broke the back of RW in Gujarat. Similarly he has broken the back of right wing in rest of India. The main plank on which elections will be fought in 2019 would be subsidies and unemployment Dole given to poor voters. BJP knows that it will not get minority votes, but it is hoping that its allies will get some minority votes and it will slowly move into centre stage in next 10-15 years. In the meanwhile Hindu voters will be given an Illusion of hindutva while their tax money will be used to fund minority schemes.

KJo
Forum Moderator
Posts: 327
Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2017 4:36 pm

Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KJo » Mon May 14, 2018 1:07 pm

I am amazed at the level of :)) :)) on this thread.
:facepalm:

Modi has to be careful, anything blatantly pro Hindu he does could have long term repercussions. He needs to get RS majority first. Let's wait till that happens before we cry about it.
My prediction is in 2nd term, he will uncork several pro-Hindu agenda items with the start beginning 2019 campaign.

Post Reply