Election Discussions - National, State etc

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Hari Seldon
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Hari Seldon » Fri May 11, 2018 8:30 am

#Karnataka2018: Why I Think BJP Will Get Way More Seats Than Expected (swarajya)

150+ apparently. Counting chickens ere the hatching, seems like to me. I'll settle for anything above 113. More is better if it helps reduce the bargaining power of individual factions and fiefdoms come govt formation.

Deans
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Deans » Fri May 11, 2018 1:19 pm

Hari Seldon wrote:
Fri May 11, 2018 8:30 am
#Karnataka2018: Why I Think BJP Will Get Way More Seats Than Expected (swarajya)

150+ apparently. Counting chickens ere the hatching, seems like to me. I'll settle for anything above 113. More is better if it helps reduce the bargaining power of individual factions and fiefdoms come govt formation.
While I'd like to see a BJP win, this article is the personal opinion of a doctor, unconnected with election and not supported with numbers.
I'd rather look at the vote shares thrown up by the opinion polls and then Dr Patil's analysis of how those vote shares will translate to seats.

KL Dubey
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by KL Dubey » Fri May 11, 2018 3:55 pm

Latest status with the 5forty3 tracker:

http://5forty3.in/chunavpedia/index.php ... 18_Tracker

Remember these predictions are updated on a daily basis and one can track the changes in estimated vote shares in every seat. That tells you a lot about which way the momentum is going in every seat.

Based on my following all the 35 or so "swing seats" for the last few days, it seems like 115-120 seats for BJP is the reasonably expected outcome. But given that 5forty3 predictions tend to be conservative (he predicted 210 in UP which turned out be 325), there is also a real chance of a 130-150 seat bonanza.

Let us hope for the best!

crams
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sat May 12, 2018 1:18 am

Dorkie is doing a report and show on all Muslim bodies in Karnataka urging their Muslim brethren to vote for Pappu. For those on the ground, is this big news? If true and people have heard it loud and clear, this could lead to Hindu polarization on the other side which can only benefit BJP. So I am not sure Congoons will be so foolish to try something like this, but dorkie being dorkie, is going hammer and tongs :-).

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Sachin » Sat May 12, 2018 5:31 am

crams wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 1:18 am
Dorkie is doing a report and show on all Muslim bodies in Karnataka urging their Muslim brethren to vote for Pappu. For those on the ground, is this big news?
The letter (written in Urdu) said to be urging the Muslims to vote for Congress has been in circulation for the last two weeks. From the way it was circulated, guess it is a triggered by the "communals". Chances of people believing it is also very high, because of the past instances of Muslims acting like vote banks.

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by chetak » Sat May 12, 2018 5:43 am

Sachin wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 5:31 am
crams wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 1:18 am
Dorkie is doing a report and show on all Muslim bodies in Karnataka urging their Muslim brethren to vote for Pappu. For those on the ground, is this big news?
The letter (written in Urdu) said to be urging the Muslims to vote for Congress has been in circulation for the last two weeks. From the way it was circulated, guess it is a triggered by the "communals". Chances of people believing it is also very high, because of the past instances of Muslims acting like vote banks.

There is much anxiety among the "other" minorities too.

Desperate whatsapp messages saying vote for the scamgress otherwise we will get kicked out of the country. This panic is among the so called professionals like doctors and engineers. They are mobilizing like crazy, many have already lined up at the booths even before the booths opened. Converted servants, as well as their mistresses from the houses where they work, are already in the queue

Sachin
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Sachin » Sat May 12, 2018 7:07 am

chetak wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 5:43 am
Desperate whatsapp messages saying vote for the scamgress otherwise we will get kicked out of the country. This panic is among the so called professionals like doctors and engineers.
True, in fact I could notice this trend in the IT Vity crowd as well. A lot or rumours have been triggered by the "seculars" to confuse the "communals" as well. From three different sources had got a message that Modi & Co may even take over the treasures (!?) in some temples in Kerala :lol:. This is a bit alarming because the people who forward such messages are no dumbos, they really know what they are doing.

krisna
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by krisna » Sat May 12, 2018 10:25 am

Hope people talk sense. A better party should get majority. It helps gets development.
having no majority is ripe for disaster. It is the worst form as every tom dick and harry demands their pound of flesh.
This is worse .

The better party may be different for many depending on their taste and ideology.

----------------------------------------------
IMHO I do believe in NaMo and hence naturally his party.

Since his ascencion and the numerous wins in various states-- not yet have heard scams of congress variety.
I am fine giving his party a chance with full majority. in fact have told all my folks to vote for NaMo and NaMo onlee.
Onlee NaMo party doing developmeent in major way(relative to other parties)-- folks can check the data and report.

Anything else is stupid and rank nonsense IMO

Pratyush
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Pratyush » Sat May 12, 2018 1:08 pm

Eagerly waiting for the first exit polls. Let's see how far the Congress mukt Bharat has reached.

abhijit
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by abhijit » Sat May 12, 2018 1:17 pm

All exit polls showing Cong to get majority

BhairavP
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by BhairavP » Sat May 12, 2018 1:27 pm

Not all. Axis only. The rest showing a hung assembly.

abhijit
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by abhijit » Sat May 12, 2018 1:35 pm

Oh I meant Cong getting the max seats

BhairavP
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by BhairavP » Sat May 12, 2018 1:40 pm

Again, 3 showing BJP getting max seats, 2 showing Congress.

chetak
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by chetak » Sat May 12, 2018 1:40 pm

twitter
The Tribune @thetribunechd

Total turnout figure received so far is 70%: Election Commission #KarnatakaElections2018

crams
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sat May 12, 2018 1:41 pm

Pravin Patil has stuck his neck out and his exit polls indicate a saffron wave. Lets see

Either way, I don't like what I am seeing. Depressing to so much support for that dunce Pappu

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by Singha » Sat May 12, 2018 1:59 pm

my voting booth was wrong in the online national database http://electoralsearch.in/
rather than my usual place nearby it was showing a rural school some 5km away
same for many in my apartment.
unaware of this, I went to usual place but was pointed out by the civil defence guard at the entrance
so went to this rural place where in the voting room, a check of the voter roll showed one Mr Nagappa under my serial#
they asked me to seek help of party workers outside, and a BJP team searched somewhere based on my EPIC id , and printed me a slip showing me the old booth itself!
so I drove back and voted there and send a mail to others in my apartment.

I dont know which database they checked under from the mobile phone, but its alarming that such important databases are not kept in sync or deliberately seeded with bad data to prevent people from voting.

abhijit
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by abhijit » Sat May 12, 2018 2:24 pm

Praveen Patil sounds worried. He is refactoring his analysis based on voters turnout.

hanumadu
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by hanumadu » Sat May 12, 2018 2:25 pm

^^Probably congis figured out your apartment folks are more likely to vote for BJP.

arshyam
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by arshyam » Sat May 12, 2018 2:32 pm

Singha wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 1:59 pm
my voting booth was wrong in the online national database http://electoralsearch.in/
rather than my usual place nearby it was showing a rural school some 5km away
same for many in my apartment.
unaware of this, I went to usual place but was pointed out by the civil defence guard at the entrance
so went to this rural place where in the voting room, a check of the voter roll showed one Mr Nagappa under my serial#
they asked me to seek help of party workers outside, and a BJP team searched somewhere based on my EPIC id , and printed me a slip showing me the old booth itself!
so I drove back and voted there and send a mail to others in my apartment.

I dont know which database they checked under from the mobile phone, but its alarming that such important databases are not kept in sync or deliberately seeded with bad data to prevent people from voting.
At least you got to do your constitutional duty saar. I couldn't even register despite running to 5 different polling booths last month, when some voter registration drive was ostensibly underway. Not one of the booths were open, and those offices with staff weren't even aware of the drive. At the end of it all, I didn't even know whether I went to the right booth to inquire, so complete was the information available to common citizens.

The online registration site run by ECI is a joke - the damn site is not even encrypted, considering it asks for so much sensitive data pertaining to one's citizenship.

At least I get to uphold true Bengaluru tradition by sitting at home and contributing to that reported 40% turnout.

crams
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sat May 12, 2018 2:38 pm

My prediction a while back that BJP will win. I still think so but it doesn't look like a cake walk.

arshyam
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by arshyam » Sat May 12, 2018 2:40 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 2:25 pm
^^Probably congis figured out your apartment folks are more likely to vote for BJP.
Very likely. I heard certain neighbouring areas were extensively covered for voter enrollment, but not a peep in my flat or the ones nearby. I am told this is the pattern across the city. Given the voter enrollment is handled by the state govt agencies, I am inclined to believe these reports.

crams
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sat May 12, 2018 2:41 pm

Guys, can we go back to history a bit. If I recall correctly during last year's UP elections too, opinion polls were similar, many giving BJP the edge, some to Congoons. And we saw the result. Problem with these opinion polls are their faulty nature to begin with, and of course bias of pollsters.

crams
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sat May 12, 2018 2:52 pm

abhijit wrote:
Sat May 12, 2018 2:24 pm
Praveen Patil sounds worried. He is refactoring his analysis based on voters turnout.
This is called CYA (cover your arse :-)). Similar to what so called statistical prediction "wizard" Nate Silver was doing, giving some bogus explanation, after predicting all along, up until election day giving Hillary Clinton 95%+ chance of winning, and then having to eat humble pie as Trump was gobbling up one mid western state after another :-).

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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by fanne » Sat May 12, 2018 3:39 pm

It is always easy to blame others, whether Nate Silver or PP. The last US election, HC did get higher vote % and did do good in states she eventually lost when some small pockets of votes made the difference, a very hard thing to catch if you are just doing random sampling. The earlier model (or knowledge base) will not be able to catch this. Unless you really go and do survey with all the voters that are going to vote (and exclude the voters who will not), i.e. repeat the election itself, it is very hard for anyone to predict a very close, 'non-traditional' election.

Karnataka is one such election this time.
http://5forty3.in/chunavpedia/index.php ... 18_Tracker
Of 224 seats, only 100 are done and dusted. They are easy to predict. Rest 124 are too close to call. Some really close, some relatively easy. What pollsters do it, get the trend and then allocate these swing seats. Today Chanakya model is simple, it gives 80% of the swing seats to the winner and 20% to the loser (in two way contest). For it to be right, two things have to happen, there should be a wave (or even a mini wave) to decide who is the winner and TC should be able to catch that. It has gotten right everytime (as elections have followed that pattern, except in Bihar where it got the wave wrong, and Guj where there was no wave in spite of concentrated vote differences).
Similarly PP is also doing a more sophisticated model. It is per him based on some 13 factors, which take into account things like loyal voter, caste matrix, swing voter etc etc. He is doing representative surveys (limited booths, like sampling 20-200 booths to predict 50,000 booths) and then predict each seat (he has a model that correlates these swing booths with every other booth). It is a sophisticated model, but can it predict right? Since 124 assembly are too close to call, it makes it difficult, that's why decent polling agencies are differing even in exit poll. There is no wave, if it were, except for agenda driven (like CSDS, CFORE) and incompetent ones, every one would have caught it. A small wave can still give differing result (seats may show landslide, but vote % not as much), but would be difficult to catch (but one like PP should catch, his model would catch a mini wave faster than others). What is scare is - he did not say voting % was low (which it is not, in fact higher), he said vote differential is not optimal for BJP, meaning BJP voters or castes did not come out as much or as much in BJP favor compared to others. He is analyzing that.

crams
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Re: Election Discussions - National, State etc

Post by crams » Sat May 12, 2018 3:43 pm

Fanne, not blaming bos, I like PP's analysis, just pointing out that polling is inherently flawed. Very tough to get a representative sample in swing situations.

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