The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Gus » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:03 pm

so MGB is a clear and present danger, because BSP vote transfer can happen to SP? can they manage to do it statewide where they are both fielding candidates and can they clearly mark territories and seat sharing and still do effective vote transfer to win over BJP?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by KL Dubey » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:31 pm

Folks, it is a bypoll - almost a nonevent except for media frenzy - and a large chunk of people did not show up to vote.

Real elections will be a different story. NDA just added three states to its tally last week.

The people's choice in UP will be rather simple: Yogi in Lucknow and Modi in Delhi.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by KL Dubey » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:33 pm

Gus wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:03 pm
so MGB is a clear and present danger, because BSP vote transfer can happen to SP? can they manage to do it statewide where they are both fielding candidates and can they clearly mark territories and seat sharing and still do effective vote transfer to win over BJP?
Highly unlikely. The SP and BSP rank and file cadre (what is left of it) mistrust each other extremely, let alone their votebanks. In the last election, SP voters asked why the eff they should vote for Pappu.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by shravanp » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:58 pm

KL Dubey wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:31 pm
Folks, it is a bypoll - almost a nonevent except for media frenzy - and a large chunk of people did not show up to vote.

Real elections will be a different story. NDA just added three states to its tally last week.

The people's choice in UP will be rather simple: Yogi in Lucknow and Modi in Delhi.
True on all that, but RS numbers don't get added. On the contrary they might reduce existing RS number.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by achoudhury » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:50 am

UP and Bihar by-elections give us a glimpse of fight for 2019. While Bihar looks solid , fight in UP will be keen. Core BJP voters did not come out to vote. Phulphur North , which is the strongest BJP assembly seat, had abysmal 18% voting and so were other city areas. More or less same thing happened in Gorakhpur besides some in fighting. If that happens in 2019 then 2004 redux is certain. Basically, BJP needs to energize the core vote to come out and vote overwhelmingly. What issues could energize the core voters? RJB is certainly one. But, I think BJP needs to play population card. Raise it as danger for India's demography and propose "Hum do hamre do" law. This will energize entire middle class as well as core. Yadavs and Jatavs are committed voter base and can transfer each others votes and add peacefools to it. This itself is above 40 in most places. Hence 45% vote share will be minimum required in UP for every constituency. Also, some wedge needs to be driven in Yadavs and Jatavs at local level. 2004 should be reminded to every BJP core and BJP inclined voters that BJP may not have fulfilled everything but the alternative is scary.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by chadev » Thu Mar 15, 2018 1:36 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:33 pm
Highly unlikely. The SP and BSP rank and file cadre (what is left of it) mistrust each other extremely, let alone their votebanks. In the last election, SP voters asked why the eff they should vote for Pappu.
Wasn't the same said about RJD/JDU, let's not kid ourselves. To be fair, this is not a new alliance, in 2014, these regional parties would have allied with Congress post-polls. Now, they are just doing pre-polls. This pre-polls alliances is the new challenge. One way to tackle it, is internal sabotage and that's why perhaps BJP is inducting the likes of Naresh Agrawal.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sachin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:00 am

Rahul M wrote:so clearly, mahathugbandhan + BJP's lack of effort/overconfidence saw them concede the seats.
hanumadu wrote:Isn't 47% turnout too low? It must have contributed to the defeat to some extent. The margin of defeat, 2%, shows how crucial the low voter turnout was.
chadev wrote:This mahathugbandhan didn't even campaign in many areas, shows how voters had already made up their mind.
Playing the devil's advocate here. How much of an effort would have BJP's own candidate put in for this bye-elections. The next Lok Sabha elections are coming up in a year's time. These chaps even if they get elected would not be able to make any impact the Lok Sabha. So even the truck loads of money (and effort) they need to put, may not be worth what they get in return. So these folks might have just taken this in the Chalne Do mode. But of this incident can wake up the lethargic cadres, then all the better.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by crams » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:19 am

shravanp wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:58 pm

The people's choice in UP will be rather simple: Yogi in Lucknow and Modi in Delhi.
True, Desh mein hai ModiJi, Pradesh mein hai YogiJi. But that said, I would make YogiJi take a back seat till things cool off and a real assessment of the debacle takes place and is understood. I would not send him around the country to campaign. He has definitely lost his star power for the moment. The more he is in the front, the more ammunition the opposition thugs have to go after BJP. The sad part is that as many have pointed out, YogiJi has been doing good work, but UP is such a cesspool that anybody can simply discount whatever was done and pick on what was not done. Plus the caste factor. But in the end, it is truly humbling for both YogiJi and BJP and their supporters like me to have been handed this pasting just a year after such a landslide victory. Some good should come out of this.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Chandragupta » Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:39 am

Sachin wrote:
Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:00 am
Rahul M wrote:so clearly, mahathugbandhan + BJP's lack of effort/overconfidence saw them concede the seats.
hanumadu wrote:Isn't 47% turnout too low? It must have contributed to the defeat to some extent. The margin of defeat, 2%, shows how crucial the low voter turnout was.
chadev wrote:This mahathugbandhan didn't even campaign in many areas, shows how voters had already made up their mind.
Playing the devil's advocate here. How much of an effort would have BJP's own candidate put in for this bye-elections. The next Lok Sabha elections are coming up in a year's time. These chaps even if they get elected would not be able to make any impact the Lok Sabha. So even the truck loads of money (and effort) they need to put, may not be worth what they get in return. So these folks might have just taken this in the Chalne Do mode. But of this incident can wake up the lethargic cadres, then all the better.
Very valid thought. The seat will be up for re-election in an year so definitely not make or break for BJP but the mahathugbandhan, even a Panchayat election is a do or die and a victory a 'message to BJP'.

Just see how the media dalals are jumping up and down after the bypolls and threatening even GoI agencies to takr it slow because C system is coming back in 2019.

I am from UP originally and have family there. They are extremely happy with Yogi. We just need to ensure the caste votes do not gravitate to BSP and caste alliances do not cement.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by MehtaRahulC » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:22 am

UP byelections and casteism

So SC/OBC not voting for RSS is casteism. But upper caste voters NOT voting for Mayawati/Akhilesh is NOT casteism !!!

Dalit /OBC voters not voting for RSS/Yogi is partly due to casteism, and upper caste voters NOT voting for Mayawai/Akhilesh is also partly due to casteism ; so its equal-equal. IOW, RSS-workers' complaint that RSS lost UP byelection is frivolous.

Many RSS-workers have now started blaming casteism for defeat of RSS in two UP local byelections (RSS = BJP, just as shaktimaan = gangadhar). As per RSS-workers, nothing was/is wrong with Modiji, Yogiji, RSS-leaders and RSS-workers !! And nothing was wrong with braindead ideas like notebandhi, GST and coming eWayBill system. Everything that is wrong is with these casteist voters only !!

First, it is true that SP/BSP get many votes due to caste. But then, same is true about votes RSS gets. Otherwise, Mayawati , Yogiji, Akhilesh --- all are corrupt to core, but Mayawati was BETTER administrator than Yogiji / Akhilesh. Let me put this in bold. All three apex UP leaders, Mayawati / Akhilesh / Yogiji are equally corrupt to core. But Mayawati was a better administrator that Akhilesh/Yogiji . Then also, not many uppers/yadav voted for her.

Mayawati had more kills than Yogiji in her first year. Law order situation had vastly improved in Mayawati days and so did roads and electricity supply. This was all despite rank and file of IAS were hostile to her due to her caste. She heavily depended on muslim votes, but then also she decided to encounter many islamist criminals. She was far better administrator than Yogiji or Modiji. Mayawati was hoping that when she fixes law-order situation, many many upper/OBC voters will start voting for her. But paidmediamen kept writing only against her again and again. The judiciary also started frivolous cases against her. So she didnt get many upper caste votes in 2012, and Muslim voters shifted to Akhilesh. And so she lost 2012 Assembly election and also lost may-2014 loksabha seats.

One main reason why Akhilesh didnt heavily cracked down on Islamist criminal was because of Mayawati's ill fates experiment. he too believed that

Mayawati did have a flaw -- statues. She did spend a lot of money on all sorts of her own statues, elephant stutues and what not,. But all that was not even 1% of UP budget. Her infatuation was grossly over stated by bikau mediamen more loyal to RSS than BSP.

As per corruption --- over 99% of leaders in India from all Sarpanch Corporator to all PMs (Modiji excluded *) all take bribes left, right and center. All the image that Maywati is far more corrupt than Modiji etc was all paidmedia cooking

And a sizeable number of SC/OBC voters did vote for RSS = Modiji in may-2014 and even in feb-2017. But within months, it was clear that RSS and congress are one and the same, except high decibel BMKJ and VM slogans. No decrease in corruption in policemen, no decrease in corruption in education, and only changes that compuetrization brings since 1986 (when Rajiv Gandhi compuertized railway reservation and corruption in railway reservation drastcailly reduced within months). So whatever high hopes that Modiji, RSS had created in may-2014 with help of paidmediamen vanished. So again, caste became important issue.
.
So my point is --- all parties RSS/ BSP/SP use casteism. RSS gets upper caste voters by creating a real or fake claim that once RSS gets 67% majority in both houses, RSS will remove caste based reservation !!! RSS had worked day and night in Gujarat in 1980, 1984 and 1990 to create anti-reservation movement to take away upper caste voters away from congress towards RSS. (And congress/Togadia did same in 2015). So many RSS votes in Gujarat is due to casteism. And a huge number of votes that RSS gets in UP/Bihar is also because casteism.

So RSS-workers's complaint that "RSSy lost UP byelectuons due to casteism" is fake,. A huge number of votes they get is also due to casteism only. Its equal-equal.

i will repeat my opinion once again on "do voters always vote by caste"? , imo, NO. If a WELL KNOWN candidate has MERITS over other candidates, then caste becomes lesser issue, But when all known candidates are corrupt and defunct, and "better candidates" or "possibly better candidates" are unknown, the caste factor becomes important. RSS-lost byelections because voters now dont see RSS as much different from congress/sp/bsp

There was huge decrease in % voting and a decrease in % votes RSS got over may-2014 and also over feb-2017. And thats mainly because a huge number of voters in may-2014 and feb-2017 thought that Modiji would be better than SoGa and RSS-leaders would be better than congress-leaders, and now they have realized that fact is otherwise.
Last edited by MehtaRahulC on Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:29 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Chandragupta » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:24 am

Twitterati talking about Gorakhpur being an attempt to cut down Yogi to size by powers that be in BJP-RSS. FWIW. I do know from a reliable source that Yogi was not Modi-Shah's choice for CM.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by chetak » Thu Mar 15, 2018 4:48 am

la.khan wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 7:09 pm
My doh paise on the next general elections (whenever they are held).

Go back to NDA-1 govt. in May 2004. I am sure this was looked into but THE single reason NDA lost in May 2004 was not India Shining but due to lack of support/enthusiasm from the RSS. The three issues that the RSS wanted resolved were Rama Janma Bhoomi at Ayodhya, Uniform Civil Code, and abrogation of Article 370. Since none of these were met, as of May 2004, the RSS must have felt there is no difference between ABV govt and other govts. When the RSS approached ABV for action on these causes, ABV must have pleaded inability to move on with these items as he headed a coalition and these items have no resonance with BJP's alliance partners. The RSS was disappointed with ABV/BJP's attitude and made its displeasure known by sitting out of the election in May 2004 :)) :facepalm:

In the period between 2004-14, each RSS leader and cadre must have seen with his/her own eyes how this country was looted, pillaged, plundered in broad daylight. Forget about Rama Janma Bhoomi at Ayodhya, Uniform Civil Code, and abrogation of Article 370, UPA foisted on this country RTE, saffron terror, NCMEI, Paki terror, 2G, CWG, coal scam etc. :evil: <sarcasm on>I hope the RSS enjoyed loot & plunder of Mother India as much as UPA enjoyed looting & plundering India.<sarcasm off>

Coming to the present, I just hope that RSS realised that if BJP does not deliver on RJB, UCC, Art.370, nobody else will. If the RSS gets miffed again over its pet causes and does not help BJP in getting re-elected (whenever the next general elections are held), we all must prepared to witness gravest depradations visit Sanaatana Dharma. However, I for one, am not despondent or pessimistic about NaMo/AS/BJP's chances at the hustings. In fact, if the RSS chief can publicly commit RSS cadre to help the BJP in the next general elections, I am willing to stick my neck out and predict a BJP led govt. However, if the RSS is indifferent towards the BJP, I am willing to stick my neck out and predict that the next govt will NOT be a BJP govt.

There are two advantages the BJP has over every other political party in the entire country (they could be more but these are what I could come up with).
1. Organization: This what the RSS brings to the table. There is no political party that has this kind of capability throughout the length & breadth of the country. INC used to have it decades back, during the freedom movement. INC's organization was gutted ever since the days of the original mother-son duo. How does the Cong(I) and its mahathugbandhan allies plan to surmount this challenge? To convince voters in 250 constituencies, you will need a pan India entity with committed cadre who believe in your cause. Who has it? BJP? Cong(I)? Mahathugbandhan?
2. Leadership: BJP has master strategists in NaMo + AS at the helm of affairs. Just look at their record of winning elections after elections. Now, compare that with RaGa's record of winning elections. Also, RaGa is the most prominent face of Cong(I); if this dude can't get votes for Cong(I), nobody else can. So, one man must work his a$$ off to convince voters in close to 250 constituencies to vote for his party/allies. How many people can stand up & say confidently that RaGa can pull this off?

So, while the challenges are many, us Dharmics have our own strengths and must play to them, and have our wits ready 8-)
Education is of particular interest to the RSS as is defence.

No movement on the RTE fiasco as well as the defence budget mess, given, especially the regional and border situations.



The RSS seems to be gunning for immediate returns without considering the big picture.

They are either with or against the Govt. A relationship between the two cannot be merely transactional as that verges on the coarse, minus the ideology, and is majorly detrimental to the interests of both the organisations

You cannot have different bits and pieces of the RSS speaking out of turn on every topic under the sun and railing against the policies of the GoI because this so called "independence" is reminiscent of the shiv sena and it's disastrous relationship with the BJP, just because the shortsighted and overly transactional "leaders" of the SS are also unable to see the big picture as well as adjust to the reality of being just another small, ineffective, directionless and mediocre regional party.

I think that clowns in the SS had hallucinations of replacing rapacious CBN (the ABA govt manipulator) in the new dispensation of Modi, forgeting that both papa thackeray and ABA are long gone and there is a new sheriff and his deputy in town.

In this Govt and also for the first time, people proudly and openly admit their RSS affiliations and RSS ideological underpinnings but choose to strike out on a path of governance and national interest.

The BJP and its parent the RSS should complement each other and not fall into the sonia gandhi like "NAC trap" of immorally exercising power without accountable authority.

BTW, it is the duty of a political party to contest and win every election. There is simply no question of being complacent in this matter and so, for the BJP to rest on it's laurels and expect the RSS to do its heavy lifting, especially when the RSS is expecting to be rewarded in terms of "returns" and feels that it has not been adequately compensated for its exertions on behalf of the BJP.

The RSS has changed substantially and its members now openly expect to be tangibly compensated for their "help" and often extract "expenses" in substantial terms from the BJP candidates, sometimes even working against their interests just to make the point.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by JohnTitor » Thu Mar 15, 2018 5:26 am

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 309149.cms

It appears that BJP actually improved performance? See graph on website above.

Lost because of the vote transfer

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sachin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 6:31 am

la.khan wrote:The RSS was disappointed with ABV/BJP's attitude and made its displeasure known by sitting out of the election in May 2004
Today we must also then check how much of reliability did RSS had on Vajpayee or BJP under command Adwani et.al. From what I understand folks like Na.Mo are actually RSS products; which means that RSS also has evaulated them (in order to support them). If that is the case can't these folks also take RSS into confidence. RSS also cannot expect magic to happen just like how some members in BGF wants.
However, if the RSS is indifferent towards the BJP, I am willing to stick my neck out and predict that the next govt will NOT be a BJP govt.
I am sorry, if RSS folks are such naive people then they ought to get the drubbing they receive. The "seculars" now fully know the danger of a united majority community. If they get a chance they would ensure that the last corner stones of a unity is destroyed, and that may include banning of the RSS. The RSS should also realise that at times the only political out fit which has symapthies to it; is the BJP. If they cannot mutually help each other, then both would get destructed.
To convince voters in 250 constituencies, you will need a pan India entity with committed cadre who believe in your cause. Who has it? BJP? Cong(I)? Mahathugbandhan?
Yesterday Ra.Ga had to admit that in UP too his party could not get much votes. But he find solace in saying that people voted for the winnable non-BJP candidate. Same is the case with leftists. They were sulking over the huge loss in Tripura, but now find comfort that BJP lost a couple of seats to BSP-SP combine. This is like a man saying he is happy to see his wife pregnant, even when he knows that the crucial act was done by some one else :lol:. It would be upto BJP and its poll managers to identify fissures in the so called khichdi mahathagbundhan and make them a non-starter.
KL Dubey wrote:Highly unlikely. The SP and BSP rank and file cadre (what is left of it) mistrust each other extremely, let alone their votebanks.
Where is Mullah Mulayam these days? He can also be "encouraged" to break up the SP again into two camps?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sachin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:35 am

I am sure all of you would have lots of "progressive & liberal" friends who would preach about the "Long March" to Maharashtra, which was said to be organised by the CPI(M) and CPI folks. Just ask those people to have a look at the two below links.
CPM Activists Allegedly Set Protesting Farmers' Tents On Fire In Kerala
Kerala: Protest in Kannur against government's move to acquire paddy field for road construction

When the CM of MH, could handle a much more tougher situation and higher number of people, the communist government had to use the state police to quell the protest. A minor operation using the Nandigram & Singrur template.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by hanumadu » Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:59 am

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ind ... 312009.cms
NEW DELHI: Andhra Pradesh chief minister Chandrababu Naidu today alleged that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is using the same tactics he adopted in Tamil Nadu when he had supported the OPS faction against the EPS in the fued between the two factions of the AIADMK party, by pitting YSR's Jagan Mohan Reddy and Jana Sena's Pawan Kalyan against him.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Trilobite » Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:04 am

Let us hope that the defaulters are not reading these media reports and getting ideas!

Government may ban 91 defaulters from leaving India

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:37 am


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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Thu Mar 15, 2018 9:43 am

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/bypoll ... aintain-it
A point by point analysis by Abhinav Prakash on why BJP lost bypolls:
A strong perception is building up that BJP has no new ‘Hindu agenda’ apart from restoring the upper-caste orthodoxy in the form of cow-vigilantism etc and upper-caste dominance in all the state apparatus like the ugly saga which played out in the appointment of the law officers, where around 90 per cent of the appointees belonged to the upper-castes. This has shaken the USHV.

But the situation is worse at the village and district level, where anyone form the upper-castes with some connection to dial up in the BJP has started to behave brazenly with the other social groups. The abrasive behaviour of the orthodox elements among upper-castes at the local level due to the mistaken belief that ‘our time has come again’ is already touching the dangerous point as all these small incidents continue to add up and spread far due to easy connectivity via mobile and social media. It is just like how Yadavs used to behave during the Samajwadi Party (SP) rule.

Surprisingly, those who counted the Yadavs in the posts of district magistrate or superintendent of police to level the charge of ‘Yadavisation’ of the administration have suddenly fallen silent about the caste composition of the new appointments. But do they think people don’t notice it? After all, WhatsApp messages are full of such lists, both true and exaggerated. And it is where the SP and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have found a crack to drive a wedge via aggressive campaigning along the caste lines. Every incident, even if not directly related to the caste violence or discrimination, is attributed to the BJP rule, like in the case of the brutal murder of a student from the Dalit caste. Despite the quick action by the administration in many such cases, the perception that BJP is enabling the caste supremacists is getting stronger even among those who otherwise vote for BJP. Importantly, this was not the case before the formation of the government in 2017.

Now, this is true that the dominant castes behave as they do irrespective of the government in power. But the attempt to create mahaul by the opposition propaganda machinery has started to work due to the failure of the power-sharing experiment in UP among upper-castes, OBCs and Dalits. And this must worry BJP as it was stopped in its tracks even at the peak of the Ram Janambhoomi movement in 1993 when OBC and Dalit castes represented under SP and BSP united in a political alliance. It must be said that there is no other way to negate the caste factor except Hindutva, but it must deliver genuine power sharing and representation across the institutions and positions of decision making.

Vikas alone is not enough, BJP must control the caste lobbies of the dominant castes running amok in UP and ensure visible socio-economic mobility, both materially and symbolically. Unlike the fallacious reading of the 2017 verdict as the defeat of the ‘caste politics’ and a victory of ‘politics of vikas,’ the 2017 victory was largely due to BJP outsmarting other parties in the caste politics by capitalising on the long-term trends in the society.

Another reason is the low turnout in the elections as a large number of supporters and cadre decided to express their discontent with the government both at the central and the state levels. The cause of discontent are varied but most important among them are the seat cuts in the government jobs especially when job creation in the private sector remains sluggish due to the long-term slowdown of the Indian economy, thanks to the ‘twin balance sheet’ albatross inherited from the United Progressive Alliance era and demonetisation. Either seats are being reduced, or where they are advertised, the process is perpetually stuck due to the broken system.

Another cause is the cadre feels that it has not gained much in the past four years unlike the cadre of SP or BSP or Congress when the respective parties are in power. Jobs remains one issue and the lack of ‘recognition’ remains another. Now a large chunk of the BJP cadre is self-sufficient on the income front and doesn’t need the party to hand out doles to them. But there are hundreds of avenues at the various levels of the government in the form of committees, advisory bodies, etc where they could be positioned (most are not salaried ones) to give a title and social recognition apart from creating another network for the flow of information and suggestions to the government. But sadly, this has not even been touched, unlike when the Congress comes to power and fills every insignificant post with its cadre.

Being a cadre-based party, the indifference of the cadre is always disastrous for the BJP as its entire electoral machinery comes to a grinding halt. And there is also not enough movement on the big-ticket Hindu causes like Ram Temple etc to excite the cadre.

Contrary to the what is being talked about in media, loss of the Gorakhpur seat is not surprising given the bad candidate selection defying the caste composition of the constituency, where Nishads are 18.37 per cent, Yadavs 9.18 per cent, Dalits 18 per cent, other OBCs 25.75 per cent and Muslims 10 per cent.

Earlier, people voted for Yogi Adityanath because he was seen as a Hindu leader, above the caste considerations but there was no reason why would people vote for some Upender Dutt Shukla just because he was from BJP and when SP had fielded a strong Nishad candidate. But by fielding a Brahmin candidate, BJP strengthened the impression that even in areas of strong non-upper caste demography, BJP is trying to impose an upper-caste leadership. And it didn’t go down well. Writings were on the wall, but the party refused to see it.

But what should worry BJP more is the loss in Phulpur, where despite fielding a Kurmi candidate and despite the division of the Muslim votes due to Atique Ahmed, BJP lost by a significant margin. It not only reaffirms that the USHV is cracking but also shows a wider discontent is building in the region due to reasons which must be taken seriously by the party leadership. There is still a long-run to the 2019 elections, and the UP by-polls have come as a timely warning for the BJP to introspect and recalibrate its strategy.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:33 am


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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by fanne » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:00 am

My take (since everyone has a take) -
It is simple 2004 like situation. A section (mostly BJP voters) decided that it was not important/already in pocket, sat this one out. Some points
Pure mathematical ones (no opinions)
1.The voter turnout was average 65% in LS 2004, it was sub 45% this time
2.The absolute number of votes (not %) of SP+BSP votes in both election is almost same (Can it be inferred, that since SP+BSP had a point to make, their base came out heavily/fully to vote?)
3.BJP core areas (Mainly urban and wholly BJP as per trend from last many election), the voting % were very very low - 17% and 18% in both LS seat. Similar is the case in Araria (Bihar). Last election, they ran 65% (just these two seats would have wiped out the defecate and make them win)
4.There was no panna pramukh and LS/VS like mobilization of BJP/RSS cadres to get voter out (you don't use your most important weapon evrytime, only at the right time).
5.SP and BSP base vote is transferable, don't assume otherwise
6.The above pretty much explain the election - Lack of BJP mobilization. Nothing extra is needed, but if there is a message, read below -

Now opinions (mostly from twitter, not from MSM, as these guys firmly have their head in their...(do not know how true)
1.Gorakhpur candidate was outsider against the wishes of YA. It did not also consider the local caste dynamics
2.The current regime is perceived as Forward Caste (most dangerous perception if true). RS lost UP under his watch (and BJP was banished for 15 years), because he also came on Hindu vote and then turned his regime as Thakur pasand (so much that Brahmins also ditched BJP). This would be death knell for BJP if true. Need to arrest that narrative and do course correction now across whole of India, there is time. Also get your MPs hit the road in their consistency and get something build, appear in Marriages, child care, fire relief, flood relief on regular basis. Maybe from now on, live there and every day visit one place or the other.
3.bjp mpS ARE NON PERFORMING ASSETS. Sure they can be replaced, but lets start with the game, where they are performing assets.

Primus
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Primus » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:02 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:33 pm
Gus wrote:
Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:03 pm
so MGB is a clear and present danger, because BSP vote transfer can happen to SP? can they manage to do it statewide where they are both fielding candidates and can they clearly mark territories and seat sharing and still do effective vote transfer to win over BJP?
Highly unlikely. The SP and BSP rank and file cadre (what is left of it) mistrust each other extremely, let alone their votebanks. In the last election, SP voters asked why the eff they should vote for Pappu.
There is indeed a ray of hope here. Both Mayawati and AY are very ambitious, having tasted power as CM before. So while one party may agree to vote transfer in a small by-election which has no lasting or major influence (the candidates have to go to the polls in a year again), it is unlikely that Bahen Ji is going to allow ALL of BSP votes to go to SP because then she is left with nothing.

One possibility may be that the two parties may combine together before polls and divide the seats between them. But then again, their respective cadres would need to be convinced of this strategy as would those who lose out on seat allotment. Further, who then becomes the CM if the combination wins? Is AY going to give up the leadership to Mayawati?

If Cong joins the duo the situation becomes even more complex. I doubt RaGa would be content playing third fiddle.

One thing is clear to me, the party that wins UP, wins the country.

SRoy
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by SRoy » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:03 am

But ... the SwarajyaMag article is saying exactly what we have been saying in forum.

Maybe its a farcticle. Who knows SwarajyaMag might have already sold out. Waiting for the learned in this forum to certify that.

Indrad
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:15 am

unlikely S Roy saar: that guy Abhinav Prakash is from UP (Awadh), has grass root connection, is a dalit and has been tweeting unhappiness over local admin all over UP ignoring dalit & non Yadav OBCs. He is followed by Modi, there is no reason to disbelieve him so far.

Sachin
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sachin » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:34 am

Primus wrote:One possibility may be that the two parties may combine together before polls and divide the seats between them. But then again, their respective cadres would need to be convinced of this strategy as would those who lose out on seat allotment.
The next major elections in UP would be the Lok Sabha elections. The fight over who becomes the CM may not be relevant because it is a Lok Sabha election. So if Mayawati and Jr. Yadav decides to have a seat sharing formula, it would be a bit tough for both of them to convince their own cadre on what benefit they would get. I don't think there would be many takers for the simple reason of "keep BJP at any cost". The BJP also may be able to understand the seat sharing formula, the caste factors which SP-BSP took into consideration and come up with an alternate solution.
One thing is clear to me, the party that wins UP, wins the country.
Even if we agree that SP-BSP combine wins UP, and gets a good majority to lay stake on the Lok Sabha I don't think they would be able to pull through. One, just by SP-BSP MPs there cannot be absolute majority in Lok Sabha. SP-BSP itself can start having quarrels once they see the Lok Sabha (who gets which ministerial post etc.). Secondly they also need to cobble up a working alliance with many state level parties (with their leaders also expecting high returns). Earlier the Congress was like the mother-ship to which all these small ships could attach themselves to. Don't know if Ra.Ga is expecting all these small parties to fight the elections, get enough seats and then request Shri. Ra.Ga from the Nehru/Ghandi dynasty to now rise up, be the PM and then rule the country.

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