The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

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Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Supratik » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:40 pm

We also need proper exit control laws to prevent accused people from leaving the country. I am not sure if India has one.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Trilobite » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:53 pm

Supratik wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:40 pm
We also need proper exit control laws to prevent accused people from leaving the country. I am not sure if India has one.
India has "Lookout Notices", it is similar to exit control. Anybody on the lookout notice is not allowed to leave the country and stopped at the immigration. In case of Mallya CBI watered down the lookout notice sometime in Nov. 2015 which allowed him later to leave the country without being stopped.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Supratik » Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:55 pm

Source of news? Or your own imagination?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Supratik » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:11 pm

It seems he had left India before PNB contacted agencies.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 930682.cms

Trilobite
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Trilobite » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:11 pm

^
What is Lookout Circular?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Look_out_circular

CBI changed nature of Mallya's lookout notice in Nov. 2015
Vijay Mallya case: CBI changed nature of lookout circular

Sicanta
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sicanta » Thu Feb 15, 2018 6:19 pm

Apart from pnb, external auditors including rbi have a lot to answer for

Trilobite
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Trilobite » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:11 pm

Per the whistleblower this issue was brought to the authorities notice back in 2016:

Didn't get response from ED, CBI: Man who 'informed' PMO about Nirav Modi scam

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Indrad » Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:44 pm

Trilobite wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:11 pm
Per the whistleblower this issue was brought to the authorities notice back in 2016:

Didn't get response from ED, CBI: Man who 'informed' PMO about Nirav Modi scam
entire set of documents also was sent to ToI but they refused to publish the story as they got lucrative ads from Nirav's company


Sicanta
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sicanta » Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:17 pm

It's very possible that political pressure in 2011, as mentioned by supratik ji, initiated this fraud. Cause this has been done very elaborately. After 2014, pnb may very well have kept curtains on this continuously so far so as to save their market value and not worsen off npa situation. It's only now that when gov has come up with a recapitalization scheme and npa clean-up is going on that pnb decided to unveil this one

This may very well be wrong but the other possibility of no one among so many entities involved not catching this fraud so far seems very outlandish
Last edited by Sicanta on Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by ashokk » Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:22 pm

Bypolls and the BJP – do the trends since 2014 suggest a constant decline?
2018 By-polls

This brings us to 2018, which started off on a poor note for the BJP courtesy the two defeats in Rajasthan. This year will see 10 by-polls as below, 3 of which have taken place as of now:

Image

In Uluberia in West Bengal, the TMC won easily, with BJP displacing the CPIM as the second largest party, but staying way behind the TMC.

The two by-polls in Rajasthan were interesting. Rajasthan has traditionally been a swing state and the Congress leaders Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot left no stone unturned in winning these two seats from the BJP. Alwar, though not a big BJP bastion, had seen the party win 3 times in the last 8 elections. Congress won this seat with a 57% vote share against the 40% polled by the BJP, creating a significant gap.

Ajmer was the biggest loss for the BJP since 2014. Of the 27 seats up for by-polls since 2014, this had been the second strongest seat for the party after Gorakhpur. The BJP won Ajmer 6 of the last 8 times and one of the losses was to Sachin Pilot in a close election. The Congress went from 40.3% to 50.6% as the BJP declined from 55.1% to 43.6%. This seat was not a washout for the BJP, and the 7% gap i.e. a 3.5% vote swing, is not a big one to surpass. But of the four seats it has lost to Congress, this undoubtedly has been the worst loss.

Seven seats are yet to go to by-polls. Of these, the Anantnag seat has been vacant as the Kashmir militancy has put paid to any hopes of a poll. BJP has a big stake in all the other six seats. Three of these – Araria, Gorakhpur, and Phulpur will go to polls on March 11th.

Araria in Bihar was last won by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) MP Mohammed Taslimuddin. The Janata Dal (United) or JDU then fought independently. The BJP and the JDU in total had almost 50% votes in 2014, 8% more than what RJD polled. The JDU has made life easier for the BJP by announcing it will not contest the by-poll. So a BJP-JDU alliance should be the favourite to win this seat, with the RJD supremo Lalu Prasad Yadav languishing in jail on corruption charges.

In Uttar Pradesh (UP), the BJP has three seats to retain. Gorakhpur, represented by Yogi Adityanath, now the UP CM, should be the easiest one to win. The party hasn’t lost this seat since 1991. However neither Phulpur nor Kairana are straightforward.

Phulpur, the seat once represented by India’s first PM Jawahar Lal Nehru, has elected a BJP MP only once in 2014! Keshav Prasad Maurya, now the Deputy CM in UP, was the sitting MP. There are rumours that the opposition may field a combined candidate to test a potential Mahagathbandhan in the state ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In 2014, the BJP got 52.4% votes with SP 20.3%, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) 17%, and Congress 6%. If Mayawati, the BSP supremo indeed contests this seat as a consensus candidate, it will be a big challenge for the BJP to overcome.

Kairana shot to national infamy with communal riots in 2014 leading to exodus of several Hindu families from the region. The Yogi government has since stabilized the law and order situation in the region. Yet the BJP has won this seat only twice before and it not a natural party stronghold. It polled 50.5% in 2014 ahead of SP 29.5%, BSP 14.3%, and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) 3.8%. The challenge here will be to retain the 2014 vote share.

Finally, there are two interesting seats in Maharashtra. Maharashtra is one state where the BJP expects to make significant gains in 2019 if it contests alone without a Shiv Sena alliance. Hence the Bhandara-Gondia and the Palghar polls assume extra significance.

The Bhandara-Gondia seat was won by the BJP candidate Nana Patole in 2014 who has since quit the party and joined the Congress. He had defeated the NCP stalwart Praful Patel, who has won this seat 4 times in the past. The NCP has allied with Congress again for the future polls and Patel himself has not been very visible in the NCP circles of late. This makes for an interesting situation where both the Congress and the NCP may want to stake claim to the seat, but only one of them can contest in an alliance. Will the BJP be able to leverage this fault line?

Palghar, which was designated as a Lok Sabha constituency in 2009 has seen one win by Bahujan Vikas Aghadi (BVA) and one by BJP in 2014. This seat has six assembly constituencies of which Boisar, Nalasopara, and Vasai are BVA strongholds. The Palghar town itself has a Shiv Sena member of legislative assembly (MLA). The BJP has two MLAs in Dahanu and Vikramgad. In 2014, the BJP polled a comfortable 53.8% against the 29.6% of BVA. But formally, the BJP and Shiv Sena alliance is now broken while the BVA will be keen to win its stronghold seat again. The circumstances make for another tricky fight for the BJP.

Writing on the wall?

The by-poll story thus is not as skewed against the BJP as it is made out to be. The party has had to contend difficult seats as well as localized adverse factors in several cases. A strong show in the six remaining by-polls in 2018 can create a positive momentum for the BJP. Continuing losses however will be bad for the party’s morale as the 2019 Lok Sabha polls loom large.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by SSundar » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:31 pm

Sicanta wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:17 pm
It's very possible that political pressure in 2011, as mentioned by supratik ji, initiated this fraud. Cause this has been done very elaborately. After 2014, pnb may very well have kept curtains on this continuously so far so as to save their market value and not worsen off npa situation. It's only now that when gov has come up with a recapitalization scheme and npa clean-up is going on that pnb decided to unveil this one

This may very well be wrong but the other possibility of no one among so many entities involved not catching this fraud so far seems very outlandish
Any chance that this is now one of Congress' inspired leaks to equal-equal with BJP on the corruption front? Now Congis can go around tom-tomming that this scam was entirely NaMo's responsibility since it happened for 3 years under UPA but 4 years under NDA. As an added bonus, the bad guy even shares a name with Modi. All the more attractive to call it the Modi scam in 2019.

Which creates the possibility that there are a lot more landmines like this in the banking system. This guy ran out of luck because he shared a name with NaMo. ToILET is already calling him NiMo and written an article "Finding NiMo".

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by shravanp » Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:43 pm

Absolutely not. Congress image has been calcified as that of a big time corrupt, and people also can see that BJP is getting royally trapped/owned by Congress by unearthing UPA scams.

Congoons will never be successful in doing equal equal in this case.

HOWEVER...

The fact that BJP's inability to jail corrupt (except for Laloo), and especially from Congress party, can cast a huge dent in BJP's image. So all the other issues such as Ram Mandir, freeing up temples etc...be damned if BJP can't have guts to throw in AT LEAST ONE congoon in jail. This riles up BJP's fan base more than any other issue. With all due respect, I am feeling that the MAD combo may actually be afraid of touching Congoons. Somewhere deep down in their hearts they probably know the reach of Congoons tentacles and quite possible that clashing with them have a collateral damage on BJP. I don't know. I don't know what else could be reason on why Congoons are still behaving as 'BADSHAHS' of India despite being out of power.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Kabir » Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:07 am

Has the paid media linked NiMo to NaMo yet? Am waiting for a tweet typo from one of their proxies

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by chetak » Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:16 am

Sicanta wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:17 pm
It's very possible that political pressure in 2011, as mentioned by supratik ji, initiated this fraud. Cause this has been done very elaborately. After 2014, pnb may very well have kept curtains on this continuously so far so as to save their market value and not worsen off npa situation. It's only now that when gov has come up with a recapitalization scheme and npa clean-up is going on that pnb decided to unveil this one

This may very well be wrong but the other possibility of no one among so many entities involved not catching this fraud so far seems very outlandish
It seems stupendously unbelievable that one piddly PSU wallah could hide this scam and plunge the entire industry into utter chaos, subverting multiple financial audits as well as auditing companies and also the all important internal audits in which many a big boss would have had to sign off on.

what sort of a banana republic have we become??

The entire phalanx of the regulatory structural edifice of financial watchdogs like the MoF, RBI, whatnot could have missed this.

I simply do not believe it is possible without wholesale involvement of politicians as well as the IAS baboo(n)s.

BTW, great going, right under posterboy raghu ram rajan's nose.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by chetak » Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:17 am

Sicanta wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:17 pm
It's very possible that political pressure in 2011, as mentioned by supratik ji, initiated this fraud. Cause this has been done very elaborately. After 2014, pnb may very well have kept curtains on this continuously so far so as to save their market value and not worsen off npa situation. It's only now that when gov has come up with a recapitalization scheme and npa clean-up is going on that pnb decided to unveil this one

This may very well be wrong but the other possibility of no one among so many entities involved not catching this fraud so far seems very outlandish
It seems stupendously unbelievable that one piddly PSU wallah could hide this scam and plunge the entire industry into utter chaos, subverting multiple financial audits as well as auditing companies and also the all important internal audits in which many a big boss would have had to sign off on.

what sort of a banana republic have we become??

The entire phalanx of the regulatory structural edifice of financial watchdogs like the MoF, RBI, whatnot could have missed this.

I simply do not believe it is possible without wholesale involvement of politicians as well as the IAS baboo(n)s.

BTW, great going, right under media darling and poster boy raghu ram rajan's nose.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by SSundar » Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:03 am

Kabir wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:07 am
Has the paid media linked NiMo to NaMo yet? Am waiting for a tweet typo from one of their proxies
You would be surprised to find out who is trying to trend #From1Modi2another.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by SSundar » Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:05 am

shravanp wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:43 pm
Absolutely not. Congress image has been calcified as that of a big time corrupt, and people also can see that BJP is getting royally trapped/owned by Congress by unearthing UPA scams.

Congoons will never be successful in doing equal equal in this case.
Please search twitland for #From1Modi2another. Nothing's impossible in India. Yes we can :roll: :roll: :roll: .

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by abhijit » Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:32 am

chetak wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:16 am
Sicanta wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:17 pm
It's very possible that political pressure in 2011, as mentioned by supratik ji, initiated this fraud. Cause this has been done very elaborately. After 2014, pnb may very well have kept curtains on this continuously so far so as to save their market value and not worsen off npa situation. It's only now that when gov has come up with a recapitalization scheme and npa clean-up is going on that pnb decided to unveil this one

This may very well be wrong but the other possibility of no one among so many entities involved not catching this fraud so far seems very outlandish
It seems stupendously unbelievable that one piddly PSU wallah could hide this scam and plunge the entire industry into utter chaos, subverting multiple financial audits as well as auditing companies and also the all important internal audits in which many a big boss would have had to sign off on.

what sort of a banana republic have we become??

The entire phalanx of the regulatory structural edifice of financial watchdogs like the MoF, RBI, whatnot could have missed this.

I simply do not believe it is possible without wholesale involvement of politicians as well as the IAS baboo(n)s.

BTW, great going, right under posterboy raghu ram rajan's nose.
+1000

It is simply inconceivable when so many parties involved. That employee will now become scapegoat.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Deans » Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:39 am

The larger problem is that the banking system is rotten and can take the economy down with it.

In an earlier post, I mentioned how PNB had extended a rather dubious loan to the company I ran (when the promoter was unable to repay the
loan). To take another slightly unrelated example - the company imported about $ 3000 of spare parts for machines in 2011. The bills of entry
were submitted to the bank through which forex was paid and acknowledgement obtained. Thereafter the B//E details go to the RBI.
If the Bill of Entry is not submitted in 6 months, the bank is supposed to red flag it.

In 2015, we got intimation from the bank that we hadn't submitted the Bills of entry. We provided their acknowledgement of 2011 in response.
A year later, spooked by the Bank of Baroda fraud. the bank claimed we had not submitted the bill of entry (in reality they lost it and forgot to
enter details in their system, as a bank insider told us), informed the RBI, who in turn informed the ED, without even asking for our version.
While I am no longer associated with the company and wasn't in 2011, at the time of import, I've been harassed and spent needless time trying to sort this matter out and more importantly, the RBI, Bank and ED have spent disproportionate time trying to trace a document for a $ 3000 import - where all acknowledge the money was paid to a reputed European supplier for parts the company physically has and are worth the amount paid. Ironically we implemented `Made in India'' for all our imports and were the only player in the world, in our category, to move beyond the 2-3 Western suppliers for machines and raw material and develop these in India at lower costs.

I'm fairly certain such frauds are not limited to Nirav Modi. They would be rampant across banks and the jewellery/Real estate industry - among others. Bank and RBI audits are a joke. Deloitte is the auditor for PNB. I wonder if they will be held accountable.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by shravanp » Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:43 am

SSundar wrote:
Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:05 am
shravanp wrote:
Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:43 pm
Absolutely not. Congress image has been calcified as that of a big time corrupt, and people also can see that BJP is getting royally trapped/owned by Congress by unearthing UPA scams.

Congoons will never be successful in doing equal equal in this case.
Please search twitland for #From1Modi2another. Nothing's impossible in India. Yes we can :roll: :roll: :roll: .
So Congoons and their minions spread around these memes on twitter, and we should assume that people, especially the voting blocks of BJP will perceive BJP = Congrress in corruption?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by KL Dubey » Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:51 am

Some time ago a 'chaiwalla' explained to me how the BJP was going to destroy communism in the northeast. I requested him that once the project is successful, kindly shift shop to KL because the same is needed there.

With the huge turnouts in the Tripura rallies and the groundswell of support for NaMo, it does not seem far-fetched to think that Tripura will turn saffron this time. It seems a move to KL is impending.....I am waiting!

https://thewire.in/223969/win-tripura-c ... l-deodhar/

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by chetak » Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:56 am

PNB scam: ED officials sceptical of bank's whistle-blower claim, warn of more skeletons in closet


PNB scam: ED officials sceptical of bank's whistle-blower claim, warn of more skeletons in closet

Business Yatish Yadav Feb 15, 2018

New Delhi: The Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) is probing 150 Letters of Undertaking (LoUs) — akin to a bank guarantee issued by state-owned Punjab National Bank — which allowed billionaire diamond designer Nirav Modi to flee the country after allegedly perpetrating a fraud of Rs 11,000 crore. According to CBI officials, investigators have conducted 20 raids at various premises occupied by Nirav and his associates and were able to recover 95 key documents linked to the PNB bank fraud.


“These 95 documents are basically import bill applications on the basis of which the LoUs are issued," a CBI official said. "The bank has filed a second and third complaint as well and has handed over some documents to us which are being examined. We have asked for some more documents related to reconciliation reports, copy of audits to figure out as to why the huge sums did not raise red flags in the system.”

The bank, in its complaint to the CBI, alleged that two employees — Gokulnath Shetty and Manoj Kharat — fraudulently issued the LoUs in violation of prescribed procedures.

The bank also claimed that entries were not made in the system to avoid the detection of alleged illicit transactions. PNB managing director Sunil Mehta said "this fraud started in 2011 and continued until 16 January, 2018, when firms M/S Diamonds R US, M/S/ Solar Exports and M/S Stellar Diamonds approached the bank’s mid corporate branch at Brady House, Mumbai, with a request to allow buyer's credit for paying overseas suppliers".

“Since there was no sanctioned limit in their name of the above firms, branch officials requested the firms to furnish at least 100 percent cash margin for issuing LoUs to raise the buyer’s credit. The firms contended that they'd been availing this facility in the past, but branch records did not reveal that any such details had been granted to the said firms,” the PNB complaint alleged.

Officials in the Ministry of Finance, however, remain dubious about the claims made by the bank, saying there is something incomplete about the transactions. A senior official at North Block, requesting anonymity, said, "I find the whole thing murky because other state-owned banks accepted the LoUs without verification and due diligence."

"No doubt there is an operational failure on the part of the bank, but each and every transaction is recorded and every evening there is reconciliation and day-to-day records are recorded. If the money went out, then who gave the money? Who is the authority? If it was forged, then why was no verification done after first transaction was carried out in 2011? The RBI does its own audit — apart from the internal audit — and if the money was paid, it has to reflect somewhere. If two employees can carry out such a scheme, then there is something seriously amiss about how this bank is operating," the official added.

Enforcement Directorate (ED) officials watching Mehta's press conference said they were baffled when the top boss of the public sector bank claimed that the bank was both whistle-blower and victim. The ED has sought documents related to Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) payments as such transactions are verified to ascertain Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA) provisions. The verification sometimes takes a week before the final clearance is granted

Secondly, ED investigators want to know whether these LoUs were even once — at any point of time over the past seven years — returned to the originating bank branch for verification, and if so, whether or not these transactions were flagged in the annual audit report of the bank’s foreign exchange department. Mehta, in his media briefing, asserted that the fraud was basically “an illness that started in 2011 and we need to do surgery”.

While ED officials stated that Mehta could not be blamed for the fraud, they nevertheless, punched holes in the 'victim' card that Mehta was playing, stating that the bank highlighted forgery and avoiding entries into the bank system as the plausible modus operandi of Shetty and Kharat.

“It appears that PNB, after getting a whiff of massive scam, filed the criminal complaint in a hurry," an ED official said. "Although they claimed that an internal investigation was carried out by the bank, it seems they were not able to do it properly. There seems to be something seriously wrong because Shetty and Kharat may have forged and issued LoUs, but verification must have returned to the higher authorities. What did they do? If no alarm bells rang in these past many years and huge sums were ripped off by lower level bank officers, then it is much more serious."


The ED issued a look out circular against Nirav Modi, his wife Ami Nirav Modi, his brother Nishal Modi and uncle Mehul Choksi. Nirav left the country on 1 January, 2018, and his wife, reportedly a US citizen, followed on 6 January. Sources said Gokulnath Shetty, former deputy manager of PNB, is absconding and his residential address — as per official records — has been rented out.


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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sachin » Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:25 am

shravanp wrote: So Congoons and their minions spread around these memes on twitter, and we should assume that people, especially the voting blocks of BJP will perceive BJP = Congrress in corruption?
These kind of silly memes may work only in states like KL, where there is a plan to prove that all *.Modis are corrupt businessmen, who are related and thus PM.Modi is also corrupt. But here again, the Sanghies have started their campaign by putting a photograph of Rahul and Modi standing next to each other titled - "Main accused in National Herald cheating case, standing with PM. Modi". The state's CM is the 2nd on the top list of CMs having criminal cases. Memes have been made out of this as well.
KL Dubey wrote:Some time ago a 'chaiwalla' explained to me how the BJP was going to destroy communism in the northeast. I requested him that once the project is successful, kindly shift shop to KL because the same is needed there.
May be KL is in the low priority list of BJP. All said and done Communists in India, generally are punching above their weights mainly because INC allowed them to do so. To keep a pretention of democracy, INC allowed them play the role of an opposition. Both parties had one thing in common; their hatred to the Indian ethos. So a weak INC, also means a weak CPI(M) and CPI. From what I have seen; the smart talking MPs from CPI(M) and CPI always came from the North Eastern states and West Bengal. These were the folks who could lead debates in the parliament houses, and perhaps even get some thing done. Yechuri who cannot win a panchayath election in his home state, was made a Rajya Sabha MP by the Bengal commies. So completely pulverising the communists in West Bengal (95% achieved) and in other North Eastern states would pretty much ensure that the "Voice of the Communists" in the Parliament is out.

Check the so called "national executive" of CPI(M). Leaving aside some old Bengali gentlemen, the remaining set of people are all from Kerala, and that too mainly from one district of Kerala. These folks are not really smart people (murdering people and running bakeries perhaps are the only skills they have), and would not have reached this level in any other national party which has a real pan-India presence. We all have seen the performance of the CPI(M) MPs in the Parliament. Most of them have serious communication challenges, and do not have any skills which helps them override the Dilli Billis. So many of them have successfully planted their kids into business houses in the Middle east owned by Kerala businessmen. And these folks would be okay to remain a state level party, if this arrangement with business houses can continue.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - Oct 2017

Post by Sachin » Fri Feb 16, 2018 7:26 am

Mean while...
Supreme Court reduces allocation of Cauvery water to Tamil Nadu by 14.75 tmcft.
KA Govt. has given a "thumbs up" on the verdict. And looks like life is peaceful in the state.

Locked