The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

[Supratik]

That rumor about Sachin Pilot is old. BTW Sachin is a Gujjar not a Jat.

[Trilobite]

We can't really build a strong military by reducing the military expenditure as % of GDP. It is down to just 1.58% of GDP, it used to be around 2.5%. Recall that last time the defence allocation was this low, we suffered a humiliating defeat at the hand of Chinese and lost chunk of our land. For comparison USA spends 4.3% of a $18+ trillion GDP.

It excludes pensions, so the real defence spend is above 2%, though it is nevertheless inadequate. NATO excluding the US, spends more (as a % of GDP), without the kind of threats we face.

I think you are being overly generous by just calling it inadequate, I saw one of the general (retd.) on TV and he was fuming, and I have to agree with him on this.

We have a spectre of a two front war looming , this is absolutely not the right time to shortchange the defence expenditure.

[Kabir]

Sachin Pilot is married to Sara Abdullah, daughter of Farooq Abdullah. It is likely he has secretly converted to Islam. He has two sons. Arhan and Vehan.

At this point I would call him as part of the BIF.

Exactly!! Rajesh pilot (his father) was brought on to politics and in Congress by Rajeev Gandhi when he became PM in 1984. He also got many of his friends (Amitabh Bachchan, Sharma, etc) into congress. They now totally support the dynasty.

Thought AB was in NaMo's camp since gujarat days. Got trolled by AAPtards and c-system in 2014. Its all about money end of they day but haven't seen AB speak for C-system recently

[Kabir]

Rahul bhai, can you name one leader who is anywhere near your level of competence?

He himself.

[sbajwa]

Sachin Pilot is married to Sara Abdullah, daughter of Farooq Abdullah. It is likely he has secretly converted to Islam. He has two sons. Arhan and Vehan.

At this point I would call him as part of the BIF.

Exactly!! Rajesh pilot (his father) was brought on to politics and in Congress by Rajeev Gandhi when he became PM in 1984. He also got many of his friends (Amitabh Bachchan, Sharma, etc) into congress. They now totally support the dynasty.

Thought AB was in NaMo's camp since gujarat days. Got trolled by AAPtards and c-system in 2014. Its all about money end of they day but haven't seen AB speak for C-system recently

Amitabh Bachchan is not on talking terms with Sonia and her kids. I remember that Amitabh Bachchan Corporation limited was on the verge of bankruptcy and Sonia did not helped him.

Since then Amitabh worked very hard and pulled himself out. He has nothing to do with Congress now., he is indeed brand ambassador for Gujarat tourism.

[SSundar]

We have a spectre of a two front war looming , this is absolutely not the right time to shortchange the defence expenditure.

Maybe the Modi admin is smoking something but... THEY do not believe that they are shortchanging the defense services. THEY have a perfectly good explanation for what they are doing. Saw the Republic interview/debate with Piyush Goyal where he was emphatic that they are confident that they have plugged a lot of leaks in defense procurement and hence the lowering of the ratio between defense exp and GDP. It sounds too good to be true but these are not people who are known to blatantly lie.

[fanne]

There are two issues in the defense budget -
1. Whatever has been allocated does not get used ...(not sure what is the recent trend)
2. Modi government did many ad hock buys in last few years (to build waste war reserves good for 2 front war for a month from only few days). Where did the money come for that? If defense budget then why is not that getting reported anywhere (may be it is, but no one is tracking). If we build high reserves, it must have costed huge money, why did not it exceed the allocated budget.
It looks like there is finance away from public eye that is also getting used (like for new clear detergent, N subs etc). I would assume this govt is doing it, not increasing the formal allocation.
Though the govt has not done any mega deal except for Rafale. If it is not doing, it is worrisome.

[SSundar]

A Senior gentleman that I had much respect for shared a slanderous post on FB which claims that Anna Hazare's protests circa 2012 were a BJP ploy to dislodge MMS/UPA. I could disagree on FB but the relationship is too delicate to get involved. He was posted many positive things in the past.

My point is that such messages by previously nice, neutral people are on the rise. These are no longer memes or shared messages but often first hand messages.

Modi's disinclination to give the middle class perceptible little sops is turning them against him at mindboggling speeds.

[Kabir]

Hindus are prolly the most fickle people on earth. they are in constant need of an outlet for their pet peeves. Currently its Modi and BJP. I hope anti-BJP and anti-Namo posts are only used to shake the government and not to actually turn against them in 2019 elections. Or is every preparing the long march to suicide so early on? The only pressure hindus should put on the bjp government is to stand for its causes like RJB, freeing temples etc. Other short comings should not be dissed or whined about in public as this gives a long handle for the C-system to drive and change people's perceptions. After all these years of economic misery I have not seen a single mullah say anything against congress (or AAP) which is not even a core islamic party

[abhijit]

Hindus are prolly the most fickle people on earth. they are in constant need of an outlet for their pet peeves. Currently its Modi and BJP. I hope anti-BJP and anti-Namo posts are only used to shake the government and not to actually turn against them in 2019 elections. Or is every preparing the long march to suicide so early on? The only pressure hindus should put on the bjp government is to stand for its causes like RJB, freeing temples etc. Other short comings should not be dissed or whined about in public as this gives a long handle for the C-system to drive and change people's perceptions. After all these years of economic misery I have not seen a single mullah say anything against congress (or AAP) which is not even a core islamic party

It would be better to ask around and see mood of people and post it here. It will help for better assessment on the ground... instead of simply criticizing people who are making you aware of the situation.

Guys, since 2019 is approaching lets check around and assess. Its like crowd sourcing. Lets collect the data as much as we can in our limited capacity.

[SSundar]

It would be better to ask around and see mood of people and post it here. It will help for better assessment on the ground... instead of simply criticizing people who are making you aware of the situation.

Guys, since 2019 is approaching lets check around and assess. Its like crowd sourcing. Lets collect the data as much as we can in our limited capacity.

Indeed, while we ignore the comments of known libtards and suspicious people who were never pro-Modi, we must listen closely for the grumblings of those who have genuinely changed sides.

[Vikas]

Even Omar is divorced from his Non Kashmiri, Erstwhile Hindu Wife, so guess Divorce / Separation runs in the family.
Meanwhile outside SM and paid media, not much is heard about this dissatisfaction with NM govt. Most if us would vote back a govt which doesn't make too much of news or cause grief. See CPM/BJD history.
Don't berate middle class when they express sigh on not getting any tax break. Every other group does it when expectations are high.
If you are not going to lobby for your cause, who else will. Middle class has practically lost all the sops but in return has got almost nothing from AJ except for more cess , hardships of Demon, and not LTCG.
Of course India being a democracy, there is a clear danger that Congress++ can come back to power in 2019 but then as they say, you get what you deserve.
Problem with BJP supporters on this forum is that they are happy to mock who complain or brush aside the complaints completely.
Optics matter in politics after all.

Lastly don't fret of RJ, it has history of switching rulers since days of Raja and Maharana.
It will take another generation of BJP leaders to get RJ firmly back in BJP kitty.

[Chandragupta]

It is time that we understand that Hindus will go extinct in about 200 years. It is inevitable. Hindus simply don't have the strong faith needed to defend against the fanatic Abrahamic faiths and going forward, it is only going to get worse. As Hindus get richer, the first thing they kick to the curb is their dharma & traditions and adopt western ways. This is not reflected in Muslims or Christians in India. Everytime I talk to an educated Hindu about the imminent threat of Islamic war in India in 50 years, I get scoffed at and termed a sanghi.

5 Hindus butchered in last 30 days by Jehadis. These Jehadis did not come from outside, they were born Indians, genetically Hindus but brainwashed by the desert cults. If Hindus vote in Congress in 2019, the confidence of these jehadis will be sky high. For us BJP vs Congress may be a political affair, but for them it is religious. Even if Hindus don't see that way, for Muslims defeat of BJP means defeat of Hindus. As BJP loses, Muslims believe themselves to be the victor, believing it is 'their' government now. We have to think about what will happen then.

If Muslims are butchering Hindus under the raj of Modi - an imposter who rode the wave of Hindutva only to spit in it later & become Nehru v3.0; think about what would happen under Congress raj. It is in our best interest to keep Modi in 2019. Disastrous as he is, still better than to slit our throats by voting in Jehadi Party Congress. Let Modi warm the gaddi for a true Hindu leader who is not afraid to call a spade a spade.

[chetak]

[gauravsh]

https://m.rediff.com/business/interview ... 180206.htm

Yes, the influence of P Chidambaram is still very strong in the government in the financial portfolios because most of the senior civil servants are Chidambaram loyalists.

That is why there was no new thinking at all in the Budget.

In fact, there was no new thinking at all from 2014.

The same old people are controlling the government. The home and finance ministries are functioning as they were before.

Narendra D Modi changed the BJP as an organisation, but not the government

Most of the key people in the Modi government are Lutyens zone people.

They are so dominant in creating Indian policies. Modi and Co have gone into coexistence with Lutyens.

This is a Lutyen zone government and as long as it is that way, the country will not make any progress it needs to make.

Modi had a great opportunity, but I am sorry to say he is on track to losing it.

The bus is still there, but Modi will have to run, run really fast, to catch it.

[Indrad]

take it with pinch of salt but this is worth reading ..^^

I heard some grapevine but will be killed for writing..bottom line is many IAS are not willing to work for this govt whom they consider unfriendly.
On top IAS themselves are incapable of bringing the change Modi saar is dreaming of.
IN spite of an adverse bureaucracy we saw quite a few successful changes.
Some thing for which every one salutes him is impeccable no to corruption.
2019 is now around the corner: they must build the narrative now.
His return is almost assured, even middle class who are most miffed with the govt do not say yes for congress but fear is many fence sitters may not turn out on the fateful day or simply press nota (particularly young).

[MehtaRahulC]

It is time that we understand that Hindus will go extinct in about 200 years. It is inevitable. Hindus simply don't have the strong faith needed to defend against the fanatic Abrahamic faiths and going forward, it is only going to get worse. As Hindus get richer, the first thing they kick to the curb is their dharma & traditions and adopt western ways. This is not reflected in Muslims or Christians in India. Everytime I talk to an educated Hindu about the imminent threat of Islamic war in India in 50 years, I get scoffed at and termed a sanghi.

5 Hindus butchered in last 30 days by Jehadis. These Jehadis did not come from outside, they were born Indians, genetically Hindus but brainwashed by the desert cults. If Hindus vote in Congress in 2019, the confidence of these jehadis will be sky high. For us BJP vs Congress may be a political affair, but for them it is religious. Even if Hindus don't see that way, for Muslims defeat of BJP means defeat of Hindus. As BJP loses, Muslims believe themselves to be the victor, believing it is 'their' government now. We have to think about what will happen then.

If Muslims are butchering Hindus under the raj of Modi - an imposter who rode the wave of Hindutva only to spit in it later & become Nehru v3.0; think about what would happen under Congress raj. It is in our best interest to keep Modi in 2019. Disastrous as he is, still better than to slit our throats by voting in Jehadi Party Congress. Let Modi warm the gaddi for a true Hindu leader who is not afraid to call a spade a spade.

Calling PM an imposter !!!

Admins, pls warn postor that such explicitly derogatory words should NOT be used for PM without proofs.

[Supratik]

Pure garbage. He doesn't know how Modi functions. Modi is not Khilji that he will execute all those who worked for the previous regime. Except the recalcitrant he will make them work for him. Home ministry has worked the best in near memory. Naxalite violence is down and Islamist violence outside Kashmir is near zero. And after all these things like demo and GST he rants about no reforms. Nalapat is a reasonable guy. Expected better.

[Shakuni]

Coming soon to your neighbourhood, Malsi violence and threat of Jihad!
Of course, Jigneshbhai has no opinion on such news reports.

Uttar Pradesh locality 'living under threat of conversion'

Around 1,500 members of the Dalit community in Uttar Pradesh’s Gautam Nagar locality of Amroha district are allegedly living under a threat of “conversion”.

Sources say shops in the neighbourhood are slowly changing their address to “Islam Nagar” from the pre–Independence name of “Gautam Nagar”.

Most residents of the area make a living by doing odd jobs.

[SSundar]

Bureaucracy being anti-Modi was expected news. The erstwhile AP babus pretty much made sure Chandrababu Naidu did not return to power because he did not let them "earn" their living. The same can be expected of the Lutyens ones.

Question is... wasn't there some much touted effort to get dharmically trained babus into the Lutyens mix? Isn't the PMO supposed to have Modi-loyalist babus who have been driving an honest babu assignment exercise?

[manju]

Sundar, for you

www.samkalpiascoaching.com
In 1986 SAMKALP was established to groom students to take up the administrative services of the country, as a career with a missionary zeal, nationalistic spirit and a total commitment towards basic human values. Samkalp strives to inspire in them, a sense of confidence and determination to become better administrators.

http://samutkarshias.in/

The rich Heritage and Legacy of Bharath and the firm belief to regain the same, inspired the formation of “SAMUTKARSH” to take up the responsibility to enlighten the youth with the Challenges of Nation Building and to empower the youth to live up to the high expectations of the world which slowly but certainly is realizing and accepting the greatness of Bharath’s culture.

The core values we uphold such as “Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ and ‘Loka Samastha Sukhino Bhavanthu’ have once again started getting acceptance across the civilizations worldwide.

moi somewhere in this list
http://samutkarshias.in/about-us/executive-council/

[sbajwa]

It is time that we understand that Hindus will go extinct in about 200 years. It is inevitable. Hindus simply don't have the strong faith needed to defend against the fanatic Abrahamic faiths and going forward, it is only going to get worse. As Hindus get richer, the first thing they kick to the curb is their dharma & traditions and adopt western ways. This is not reflected in Muslims or Christians in India. Everytime I talk to an educated Hindu about the imminent threat of Islamic war in India in 50 years, I get scoffed at and termed a sanghi.

5 Hindus butchered in last 30 days by Jehadis. These Jehadis did not come from outside, they were born Indians, genetically Hindus but brainwashed by the desert cults. If Hindus vote in Congress in 2019, the confidence of these jehadis will be sky high. For us BJP vs Congress may be a political affair, but for them it is religious. Even if Hindus don't see that way, for Muslims defeat of BJP means defeat of Hindus. As BJP loses, Muslims believe themselves to be the victor, believing it is 'their' government now. We have to think about what will happen then.

If Muslims are butchering Hindus under the raj of Modi - an imposter who rode the wave of Hindutva only to spit in it later & become Nehru v3.0; think about what would happen under Congress raj. It is in our best interest to keep Modi in 2019. Disastrous as he is, still better than to slit our throats by voting in Jehadi Party Congress. Let Modi warm the gaddi for a true Hindu leader who is not afraid to call a spade a spade.

Mr Chandargupta are you depressed? What is up with all this doom and gloom?

Back in 1764 there were only 1 lakh Sikhs (around 40,000 were men who could fight rest were women, old and children). Ahmad shah abdali along with nawab of malerkotla and sirhind sorrounded Sikhs and in a single day murdered over 60000 reducing the Sikh population with more than 50%.

Sikhs believe in Chardhi Kala (positive approach)., so after the evening prayers Sikh men resolved that since now they do not have to protect their women, old and children they are free to fight (no liabilities). All of their week population had perished. Thus Sikhs created various Sikh states between Indus and Ganga rivers.

[manju]

can you please elaborate on this.. did not know about this..

or provide a link..

[chetak]

The only summary of Union Budget 2018-2019 you need to read

The only summary of Union Budget 2018-2019 you need to read

By Aashish Chandorkar,

February 1, 2018

Let’s say you are a salaried employee. Consider this possibility for 2018-19 – You open a small firm in your senior citizen father’s name, which starts providing professional consulting service to your employer doing through you doing exactly what you do today. You then become an underpaid employee in this firm and claim the ₹5 lakh a year medical insurance benefit from the government, while your father pays tax as a notional imputed tax as a small business firm, after covering your expenses as legitimate business expenses. This is perhaps the only scenario in which you will be paying less tax than the current year.

In every other case, the salaried employee is going to be worse off in 2018-19 than today. While the salaried urban voter perhaps considers savings, cash-in-hand, and such economic metrics as one of the key inputs to her vote, it remains to be seen if the budget translates in sufficient personal gains for the non-salaried voters to retain or convert them as voters. The government is betting on this trade off via a budget which was widely expected to be political in nature.

The budget is still very much political except for the traditional voters and vocal supporters of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on social media. Many of the nearly 2 crore salaried individuals – translating to about 8 crore household members – will likely not vote out of habit or may continue to support the party irrespective of personal disappointments. Specifically, there are two disappointments – the personal income tax structure remains unchanged, with standard deduction now higher, but subsuming transport and medical allowances. Secondly, the securities markets taxes – the 10% long term capital gains (LTCG) tax over ₹1 lakh and the tax on dividend distribution by equity mutual funds – seem harsh.

These provisions have three problems. First, the standard deduction limit raise will mean an extra saving of about ₹6,000 a year. Although the LTCGs have been grandfathered, the future trade off point will be ₹60,000 of LTCG per year, at which a salaried person investing in securities markets will start paying more taxes. Second, the taxes come in just as the financialization in the Indian markets was increasing at a record pace – some of it may potentially slow down. And lastly, the initial estimates suggest an upside of ₹20,000 crores from these LTCG measures – that’s not a very big amount for the government to create such poor optics for its most vocal support base.

The disappointment of the pro-BJP meme-making class aside, the budget does four important things.

First, there is a big focus on education, health, and social indicators. An increase of almost ₹15,000 crores over the previous year, the 2018-19 budget of ₹153,000 crores is a big jump. By 2022, the government wants to create an Eklavya Vidyalaya in every block which has a minimum 50% population from scheduled tribes. Providing Ph.D. scholarships to 1,000 students at Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) and Indian Institute of Science (IISc) is a great idea to promote research and development. The 150,000 centers for health and wellness to be created under Ayushman Bharat program are again a step in the right direction. These centers will provide the primary and parts of secondary healthcare focusing on non-communicable diseases, maternity benefits, diagnostics, and deliver cheap medicines. And the biggest step of them all is the new Modicare – ₹5 lakh insurance cover per family, a significant increase from the current ₹30,000 cover under the Rashtriya Swastha Bima Yojana. Currently proposed for 10 crore poor and vulnerable families, leading to more than 40 crore potential beneficiaries, this will be the largest healthcare program in the world! The government has also made the intention of providing universal healthcare clear – so we are moving in the direction of a single payer model over time for basic healthcare delivery. There’s also a provision to create 24 new medical colleges and hospitals.

Second, the budgetary and non-budgetary support for infrastructure spending will be up from ₹4.94 lakh crore to ₹5.97 lakh crore. There were no surprises on the infrastructure side, as most programs across roads, railways, ports, waterways, and airports are already underway. One significant announcement was the intent to link all rural habitations to a high school, a hospital, and a grameen agriculture market (GAM) under the revamped Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana. There will be a provision for 3 crore more LPG connections under Ujjwala, 51 lakh rural and 37 lakh urban houses under Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, 1.88 crore new toilets, and more than 3 lakh kms of new rural roads. The government will create 5 lakh rural wi-fi hotspots now that the BharatNet project has scaled up connecting 2.5 lakh gram panchayats. Almost ₹30,000 crores will be invested in the Mumbai and Bengaluru suburban rail networks – that’s a big commitment for urban transport. Much of the Mumbai plans were already announced earlier, but Bengaluru will be keen to know specific projects under this announcement.

Third, there is a lot of focus on job creation based on the learning from the textile sector gains made last year. The Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have practically all been brought under the 25% tax bracket. The government plans to connect the Trade Receivables Discounting System (TReDS) with the Goods and Services Tax (GST) network, which will promote flow based credit for these enterprises. Fixed term employment, currently meant for the textile sector, is being extended to all sectors – a labour reform in disguise of the Finance Bill. The footwear and leather industries will get benefits of deduction on employee emoluments at par with the textile industry. The government will cover 12% of the EPFO contributions for new employees in small industries for a fixed period. New women employees will contribute 8% to the EPFO, while the employer contribution will remain the same. There’s also the ₹7,000 crore budget for the textile sector – the star of the second half of 2017 Indian industrial revival. And finally, the MUDRA loan refinance facility will see increased outlay, retaining the thrust on promoting small entrepreneurship.

Fourth, the government is betting big on agriculture. Starting next kharif season, the government is now promising a 1.5 times the input costs as fair remuneration for the farmers in the form of minimum support prices (MSPs). There’s also a provision for connecting 22,000 GAMs with the national agriculture market, for better market access and increased aggregation and lot size rationalization. Finance Minister Jaitley also made an interesting comment about such GAMs bypassing the local Agriculture Produce and Marketing Committees (APMCs) and ability to sell across the country. This comment should be tracked closely as it can be another big stealth reform if the hold of APMCs in the agriculture marketing is reduced. Jaitley also spoke about better import and export management, investments in agriculture logistics, and use of futures and options for agri-commodities. All of these are important measures, but the details of what and how are more critical than the announcements themselves. There are specific provisions for a host of agriculture value chain areas like organic farming, bamboo cultivation, fisheries, animal husbandry, and food processing. Jaitley mention an Operation Green dealing with commonly used perishables which will be managed better through agri-logistics investments. All in all, a significant part of the budget speech was devoted to agriculture and rural India – how the government translates these announcements into results remains to be seen.

For the international investors, the Finance Ministers made the right noises. He intends to keep the fiscal deficit at 3.3% of the GDP. He also wants the central government borrowing limited to 40% of the GDP, accepting it a key operational target. The expenditure of ₹21.57 lakh crore net of GST compensation to the states is not very high compared to the budget estimates. Overall, while the current year fiscal deficit was at 3.5%, the expectations around a revised but controlled glide path for the metric seem to have been well-managed. Jaitley also threw in announcements around consolidation and listing of government insurance firms and a commitment to complete the Air India divestment by June, enough to keep the institutional investors happy about the general reform trajectory.

Ultimately, the government will have to demonstrate how it implements the various announcements. Especially in the agriculture sector, the government has to ensure that there are no pies left hanging in the sky. Currently there are 23 crops on which the central government declares MSPs. When the government says ‘input costs’, does it intend to use the input costs of actual physical inputs, or also add the imputed costs of farmer labour, opportunity cost of not renting the land, and interest paid by the farmers? If it is indeed the latter, how will the government manage the increased food inflation in an election year? Is the government planning for better supply side logistics to address this problem and if yes, how? What happens if the market prices are below MSP – will NITI Aayog work on a price difference program (akin to the Bhavantar Bhugtan Yojana in Madhya Pradesh)? None of these questions were answered in the budget today. In fact, some of the issues were not even identified in the main budget speech, so there is some work to be done here.

Similar is the case for the 22,000 GAMs that Jaitley spoke about. Agriculture is a concurrent subject, so it is not clear how the central government will identify and empower these GAMs. Most states have not implemented the model APMC act, so letting GAMs bypass or compete with APMCs will run into rough political weather in most states, where APMCs are instruments of local political patronage.

Even for Modicare, what was not stated was how the government will fund the premiums. Today the Rashtriya Swastha Bima Yojana has a ₹365 a year premium for coverage of ₹30,000. With near 17-fold increase in coverage, where will the cost of premiums come from? Will these be borne by the beneficiaries in some ratio? Or will the state governments be asked to cover past of these costs? The actual program design will have to be studied carefully to understand the fine print.

Finally, there are the usual irritants to deal with, which with remarkable continuity manifest themselves as duty rejig. The basic and additional excise duties on petrol and diesel have been replaced with a new road cess. This basically tells the state governments to either control their value added tax (VAT) on petroleum products or let these products flow into the GST net. The central government will no longer have much room to cut the excise duties when the petrol prices head north of ₹80 per liter. Components of mobile phones and other electronics will be costlier now with greater import duties. This is ostensibly to promote ‘Make In India’. In reality, no major factories working end to end may come up in the country in the short term, but the prices of mobile phones – the most aspirational symbol of an upwardly mobile society – will go up on April 1, 2018 pronto.

If this were 2015 or 2016, this budget would be alright. But given this is the last full budget before the Lok Sabha election, the budget comes across as neither populist nor political enough. And that’s strange going into the 2019 polls. The budget puts even more pressure on Narendra Modi, the campaigner, to work harder as the election cycle kicks off with Karnataka in a couple of months time.

Overall budget rating – Good in aspiration, poor in optics, and far too much left for the rest of the year to translate the budget into intent!

[chetak]

twitter

Amnesty India misled us with wrong figures. @Uppolice called them out with the coolest tweet. @AIIndia quickly corrected the lie.
The stick approach works rather well

amnesty international with their fake news tweet



counter tweet by UP Police