Indian Economy - News & Discussion

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MehtaRahulC
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by MehtaRahulC » Mon Jan 15, 2018 6:44 am

In coming FRDI bill, as per the pdf I downloaded, govt or RBI does NOT insure deposits of PSU banks or private banks.

Deposit insurance is done by some corporation called as Financial Resolution Corporation or some such name. So if that corporation goes bankrupt, then depositors lose their deposits

Imo, insurance against banks' bankruptcy by anyone except Govt is nonsense. Because if any company except Govt is insuring deposits, and if that company goes bankrupt, then who will pay depositors?

And insurance against natural accidents makes sense to me --- because nature will not use nexuses to enrich itself and increase accident rate. But insuring deposits is nonsense. Deposits are used for lending. And bank managers across world in PSU bank as well as private banks actively nexus with borrowers to enrich themselves. And they also manage to bribe whole chain of regulators all the way till PM, FinMin, RBI Gov etc to get it covered. Only when sh1t becomes bigger than iceberg, it becomes known to all, and after that they start a litany " lets not cry over split milk and lets focus on what to do now".

So when crisis comes, premium collected by insurance will not cover even 1% of NPA. So insurance and premiums etc are only smoke and mirror to create a myth that "your deposits are protected".
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So I request all not to get misguided and fooled by insurance concept in FRDI
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What is real in FRDI is bailin nonsense. Pls focus on that. Bailin in PSU bank is for real. Deposits under Rs 10 lakh will face no bailin. But large deposits are all set to be used for bailin.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by MehtaRahulC » Thu Jan 25, 2018 4:15 am

monthly electricity generation increase rates
oct-2017 ---- 2.84%
nov-2017 ---- 1.66%
dec-2017 ---- 1.40% !!
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average growth of past 6 months i.e. apr-2017 to dec-2017 = 4%
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For per capita growth , subtract 1%. So its really low.
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Our equipment are becoming more and more energy efficient !! Or may be, more and more homes, farms and factories are installing their own solar panels or may be, many homes,farms and factories have cold fusion nuclear reactors. And so they dont buy electricity from power companies, and so power companies' generation isnt growing much.

Why is china not learning from our ways?

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2 ... 237506.htm
oct-2017 article
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Electricity consumption rose 7.2 percent from one year earlier, up from the 6.4-percent increase in August, according to the National Energy Administration (NEA). For the first nine months, electricity consumption totaled 4.7 trillion kilowatt hours, up 6.9 percent year-on-year, the NEA said. Electricity use in the service and agricultural sectors rose 10.5 percent and 7.8 percent, respectively, while the industrial sector saw an increase of 6 percent during the period.
Can someone rise and get MONTHLY cement, fuel etc usage data of say past few years?

(links - http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-12.pdf
change "12" by "11" or "10" to get previous month data)

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by KL Dubey » Thu Jan 25, 2018 1:53 pm

Data point on Indian economy and Modi reforms by one Sharmaji, CEO of Paytm...the video is much better than the writeup.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/24/world-e ... -modi.html

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by MehtaRahulC » Fri Jan 26, 2018 9:22 am

1) What is break-even point for GST collection?
.
Aditya_V wrote:
Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:18 am
What is Break even GST, Please explain with Numbers, Excise wtihout Diesel and Petrol was 1.5 Lakh crore, Service tax 2.4 Lakh crore , VAT without Petrol Diesel and Alcohol of various states another 3 Lakh crore, Add all other taxes Get anther 75K crore, thats 7.75 Lakh crore etc, 65K crore per month from Legacy taxes which GST replaced.
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I could not get raw data for taxes collected by Govt in 2016-2017 for taxes subsumed by GST from GoI website. Here is a post from BRF at https://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewt ... 0#p2247380
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Mort Walker: All indirect taxes collected FY 2016-17 was 17.10 lakh-crore. Assuming GST is 12 lakh-crore until July 2018, it still doesn’t account for fuel, alcohol and other taxes not on GST schedule. But I’m not sure all the other indirect taxes would amount to at least 5.1 lakh-crore. More than likely GST rates will be further reduced on more items, but another 20-30 lakh GST payers would need to be added for revenue increase.
So as per Mort Walker, total indirect tax collection was in 1-apr-2016 to 31-mar-2017 period Rs 17.10 lakh crore. I think that will include center plus state. But does it also include customs? And does it include stamp duties collected by State Govts? I dont know.
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Mort, can you give links to this number so that we can get more details?
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Now GST collection is about Rs 85000 crore per month and we dont know how much will be left after all refunds are deducted. But Rs 85000 crore per month * 12 = Rs 10.20 lakh crore per year. So will excise/vat from petrol, liquor tobacco etc add up to Rs 17.20 lakh crore? And as such we need about 10% increase in tax collection to match the rate at which expenses rise. So we need about Rs 19 lakh crore of total indirect taxes. So will other indirect taxes add up to Rs 8.80 lakh crore? I doubt.

Modiji got a royally messed by economy in jun-2014 and he has made it worse and worse and worse by ignoring all sane proposals like wealth tax and focusing on IMF proposals like GST. Despite huge petrol tax collections, and low petrol rates, we are in such a bad shape. What may happen if oil prices rise to $100 to $120 levels? Lets see how much things get worse before they improve or get fubarred

==========

(2) IT exports increase at sub-pathetic 3.8%

http://www.financialexpress.com/industr ... c/1030179/
India's computer software/services and IT enabled services (ITeS) has grown by 3.83 per cent to USD 111 billion during 2016-17.

IT enabled services, Electronics and Computer Software export, India India’s computer software/services and IT enabled services (ITeS) has grown by 3.83 per cent to USD 111 billion during 2016-17. ... It was USD 107 billion in 2015-16, the Electronics and Computer Software Export Promotion Council (ESC) said in its estimates. USA remains the top destination of India’s export of software/ services, accounting for 57 per cent in India’s total exports in 2016-17....
We need to compare with other countries. But a mere 3.8% in a booming sector like IT is imo sub-pathetic. I arrived on BRF in 2001 AD , and there were threads like "India marches" etc where postors were foreboasting (= forecasting and boasting) that India will soon become IT superpower. And I was bashed by all for saying that India lacks law-drafts need to create companies which can do ORIGINAL poineering work in computer science and computer engineering, and so India can only become "call center super power" , "data entry super power" , and at best "GUI design superpower" . Well, now growth of modern computer science fields has made it clear that India is no where in cutting edge IT scene.And CMs across India are now running to setup trade unions in IT companies and also apply all labor laws, such as Industrial Dispute Act etc which till now didnt apply on It companies. So imo things will only get worse.
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=========
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(3) Idiotic debate on wealth and income distribution in India
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The base data on land ownership in India is scattered across 100,000 Patwari offices and 100s of Charity Commissioner Offices and other offics. It is not indexed and not cross-indexed. eg consider the fact that an eliteman in Mumbai owns 16 crore sqft of land in Mumbai alone, and another eliteman in Gujarat owns about 1 crore sqft in Ahmedabad alone !!! The plots are owned by some dozen trusts. The Patwari office ONLY has trust name and NOT trustee names. The trustee names are in Charity Commissioner office, and they have trust name and trustee name, but DO NOT record Trustee's PAN number separately. And most of the data is not digitized. And even after digitization, one needs to put Trustee's PAN# or Aadhar# , etc and then do cross-matches of indexes to know which individuals own how much land in which city. Only govt can so such huge data exercises. And Govts have NOT done any such land ownership data gathering and men in Govt do NOT want to do such data exercise. So all numbers than 1% of India owns X% of wealth are imaginary numbers . Economists are biggest frauds, and econometricians are bigger frauds, and this data on "1% Indians own X% wealth" is worst nonsense. So pls ignore all those numbers. We should print law so that we can obtain that numbers in PUBLICLY verifiable way. But right now, reading those numbers is waste of time.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by Mort Walker » Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:18 pm

MRC,

The indirect tax figures came from ToI article, if you scroll up in the BRF thread, you can find the link I had posted earlier. From what I understood the 17.10 lakh-crore is everything except direct income tax.

Some rough calculations. India uses 5 million barrels of oil a day. Assume half of 159 liters/barrel becomes petrol and diesel. So:

80 liters * 5e6 * 365 days = 1.46e11 liters/year
Cost of fuel = $70/barrel = $0.88/liter = Rs. 56/liter
Tax = 28% * Rs. 56 = Rs. 15.68/liter
Total fuel revenue = Rs. 15.68/liter * 1.46e11 liters/year = Rs. 2.29 lakh-crore.

There is also cess and surcharges too. That will add to the governments bottom line. My guess is at the most fuel will give Rs. 4 lakh-crore revenue.

Oil will stabilize at around $70/barrel. The US shale oil is being produced at less than $30/barrel in the south west US. The US has broken the back of OPEC and Russia.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by RamaY » Sat Jun 02, 2018 12:32 am

Watchout this space:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 964841.cms
India’s indigenous RuPay cards will pip one of the two top international card giants, Visa and Mastercard, on the value and volume of transactions done through them in the country this calendar year, a top official has said.

Also, some 30 countries have approached India for the technology of ‘BHIM UPI’ platform for digital payments launched by Prime Minister Narendra Modi about 16 months ago, Dilip Asbe, chief executive at National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), told the country’ ..

All our life we have been following the west. This (BHIM UPI) is the only platform along with Aadhaar where the west is trying to follow the east,” he said. “There is huge international demand for India’s UPI platform among the large players. Of course, first we have to serve our country and only then can we expand it internationally. Right now, our priority is to take this platform to 400-500 million Indians in the next couple of years,” Asbe said

Read more at:
//economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/63964841.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by RamaY » Sat Jun 02, 2018 12:35 am

http://www.asianage.com/world/asia/0106 ... -modi.html
Prime Minister Narendra Modi today expressed his gratitude to his Singapore counterpart Lee Hsien Loong for his "untiring" efforts towards strengthening relations with India.
Issuing the press statement at the Istana, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said, "I express my gratitude to PM Lee, he has always made untiring efforts towards strengthening relations with India."
"The international launch of RuPay, BHIM and UPI based remittance app in Singapore, represents Digital India initiative and our renewed partnership," PM Modi said.

MehtaRahulC
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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by MehtaRahulC » Sun Jun 03, 2018 3:19 pm

(1)respected MW, I need a link you had posted on BRF
Mort Walker wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:18 pm
MRC,

The indirect tax figures came from ToI article, if you scroll up in the BRF thread, you can find the link I had posted earlier. From what I understood the 17.10 lakh-crore is everything except direct income tax.
Pls see if you can get me that ToI article / link. I am unable to find it. TIA

----------------

(2) GST collection seems to be below the taxes it subsumed

GST collection (cash basis now) for whole month of may-2018 was Rs 94000 crores. I am unable to find exact numbers, but from what I read, the taxes that GST subsumed used to fetch Rs 110,000 per month approx. And that was 1 year ago. Tax collection should increase by at least 12% every year the way Govt expenses are rising. So by that, GST's break even collection imo should be around Rs 125,000 crores at least. But we we are seeing is only Rs 100,000 per month at most. So imo we have a big gap. No wonder why taxes on petrol keep rising and rising.

I request ALL to get some good numbers of money GoI and GoStates collected from taxes GST subsumed in 01-jul-2016 to 30-jun-2017, so that we can compare it with GST collected between 01-jul-2018 to 30-jun-2018. thousand TIA to anyone who can get previous years tax collection data

---------------------------

(3) monthly electricity consumption data delayed by over 10 days !!!

Please see links

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-01.pdf
http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-02.pdf
http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-03.pdf

You will get all 3 pdf

Now click link

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-04.pdf

You get "file not found" error !!

The monthly electricity consumption data generally comes by 20th of next month. i.e. data of jan-2018 becomes online on around 20-feb-2018. But this time, delay has been over 10 days !! I hope delay is only due administrative reasons only.

So I looked at TENTATIVE monthly reports.

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/g ... opm_01.pdf

Tentative reports say
electricity PRODUCTION for april-2018 (non renewable) = 103455.04 GwHr = 103.4 billion units
electricity PRODUCTION for april-2017 (non renewable) = 103159.76 GwHr = 103.1 billion units

IOW, increase in non renewable electricity production as per this link is only 0.3% !!!

Sadly, link doesnt give renewable electricity production. And final report for april-2018 which should have come by 20-may-2018 is not still out !!!

So lets wait for final report

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by Aditya_V » Thu Jun 07, 2018 11:20 am

MehtaRahulC wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 3:19 pm
(1)respected MW, I need a link you had posted on BRF
Mort Walker wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:18 pm
MRC,

The indirect tax figures came from ToI article, if you scroll up in the BRF thread, you can find the link I had posted earlier. From what I understood the 17.10 lakh-crore is everything except direct income tax.
Pls see if you can get me that ToI article / link. I am unable to find it. TIA

----------------

(2) GST collection seems to be below the taxes it subsumed

GST collection (cash basis now) for whole month of may-2018 was Rs 94000 crores. I am unable to find exact numbers, but from what I read, the taxes that GST subsumed used to fetch Rs 110,000 per month approx. And that was 1 year ago. Tax collection should increase by at least 12% every year the way Govt expenses are rising. So by that, GST's break even collection imo should be around Rs 125,000 crores at least. But we we are seeing is only Rs 100,000 per month at most. So imo we have a big gap. No wonder why taxes on petrol keep rising and rising.

I request ALL to get some good numbers of money GoI and GoStates collected from taxes GST subsumed in 01-jul-2016 to 30-jun-2017, so that we can compare it with GST collected between 01-jul-2018 to 30-jun-2018. thousand TIA to anyone who can get previous years tax collection data

---------------------------

[
Those taxes would includes Vat and Excise on Petrol and Diesel- 40K crore and Vat on Liquor. Excise And Service Tax actual for 2016-17 were 3.8 Lac Crore(including Petrol and Diesel) and 2.55 Lac Crore. Excise 2017-18 collection 2.76 lac crore and Budget for 2018-19, Excise 2.6 Lac crore, so Exise without Petrol Diesel 2016-17 would have been 1.4 Lakh crore. State Vat without Petrol Diesel, Entertainment Tax etc would another 150K crore. So Taxes subsumed by GST were around 540K crore a year, that should be the break even GST- around 70K crore a month.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by Mort Walker » Mon Jun 11, 2018 12:06 am

MehtaRahulC wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 3:19 pm
(1)respected MW, I need a link you had posted on BRF
Mort Walker wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 11:18 pm
MRC,

The indirect tax figures came from ToI article, if you scroll up in the BRF thread, you can find the link I had posted earlier. From what I understood the 17.10 lakh-crore is everything except direct income tax.
Pls see if you can get me that ToI article / link. I am unable to find it. TIA

----------------

(2) GST collection seems to be below the taxes it subsumed

GST collection (cash basis now) for whole month of may-2018 was Rs 94000 crores. I am unable to find exact numbers, but from what I read, the taxes that GST subsumed used to fetch Rs 110,000 per month approx. And that was 1 year ago. Tax collection should increase by at least 12% every year the way Govt expenses are rising. So by that, GST's break even collection imo should be around Rs 125,000 crores at least. But we we are seeing is only Rs 100,000 per month at most. So imo we have a big gap. No wonder why taxes on petrol keep rising and rising.

I request ALL to get some good numbers of money GoI and GoStates collected from taxes GST subsumed in 01-jul-2016 to 30-jun-2017, so that we can compare it with GST collected between 01-jul-2018 to 30-jun-2018. thousand TIA to anyone who can get previous years tax collection data

---------------------------

(3) monthly electricity consumption data delayed by over 10 days !!!

Please see links

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-01.pdf
http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-02.pdf
http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-03.pdf

You will get all 3 pdf

Now click link

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-04.pdf

You get "file not found" error !!

The monthly electricity consumption data generally comes by 20th of next month. i.e. data of jan-2018 becomes online on around 20-feb-2018. But this time, delay has been over 10 days !! I hope delay is only due administrative reasons only.

So I looked at TENTATIVE monthly reports.

http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/g ... opm_01.pdf

Tentative reports say
electricity PRODUCTION for april-2018 (non renewable) = 103455.04 GwHr = 103.4 billion units
electricity PRODUCTION for april-2017 (non renewable) = 103159.76 GwHr = 103.1 billion units

IOW, increase in non renewable electricity production as per this link is only 0.3% !!!

Sadly, link doesnt give renewable electricity production. And final report for april-2018 which should have come by 20-may-2018 is not still out !!!

So lets wait for final report
MRC,

I can't find the article anymore. But Aditya_V is correct as all indirect taxes include fuel, liquor, and GST. Right now GST is hitting a peak of 1 lakh-crore per month, but this is before input tax credits. We won't know the full impact of GST collections until Oct. 2018 when a full year of GST is collected and the input tax credits are accounted for. The middle class salaried persons are hit with GST which has caused some price increases above VAT in some instances. Couple this with an increase in fuel prices and there will be electoral consequences. IMHO, we saw some of this in Karnataka where the BJP could have had increased vote share if there was enthusiasm of middle class Hindus to come out to the polls. It is IMHO that 2019 may result in a coalition government and NaMo may just be a one term PM. GST should have replaced fuel VAT and excise to result in lower prices for the consumer, but neither state or the center wanted to give up that revenue. Having done so would have secured the BJP for 2019.

As far as electricity production, there appears to be some sloppiness in some of the reports by the CEA or omissions.

See: http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-04.pdf . (this is the one where there was an error)

On page 5 look at Jan. and Mar. 2018. Clearly this is an error in the publication.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by Aditya_V » Mon Jun 11, 2018 7:33 am

I think key is keep LPG and Petrol prices in check for the Middle class, GST has not increased tax rates, but coupled with demo a lot more people are now int he tax net.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by Avinandan » Mon Jun 11, 2018 11:36 am

MehtaRahulC wrote:
Sun Jun 03, 2018 3:19 pm

Now click link
http://www.cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/e ... ary-04.pdf

You get "file not found" error !!
....

So lets wait for final report
Dear MRC,
The File is available now.

Thanks & Regards,
Avinandan

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by Haldiram » Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:28 pm

Why India missed becoming a $3.5 trillion economy in 2017
Violence cost the Indian economy a whopping $1.19 trillion in 2017 in constant purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, according to an IEP report.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by Pratyush » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:25 am

The report is pure psyops. As the scale of violence required for that kind of losses will be in all our faces on a weekly basis.

But I don't seem to recall news of such pervasive violence either news or through my friends or family. Or for that matter on the various responsible internet forums I am a part of.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by abhik » Tue Jun 12, 2018 12:27 pm

Let me guess, the pakies lost 420 billion $ out to violence. :facepalm:

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by hanumadu » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:56 pm

CholaBhaturi wrote:
Mon Jun 11, 2018 2:28 pm
Why India missed becoming a $3.5 trillion economy in 2017
Violence cost the Indian economy a whopping $1.19 trillion in 2017 in constant purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, according to an IEP report.
The author says we lost 1.19 trillion in PPP and promptly goes on to add that amount to nominal GDP and comes up with 3.5 trillion. Ughhh.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by Suraj » Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:02 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:56 pm
The author says we lost 1.19 trillion in PPP and promptly goes on to add that amount to nominal GDP and comes up with 3.5 trillion. Ughhh.
That's right. You can't take an article seriously when it has a clickbait title with bad math.

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Re: Indian Economy - News & Discussion

Post by Ameliya » Thu Jul 05, 2018 10:05 am

Suraj wrote:
Wed Jun 27, 2018 10:02 pm
hanumadu wrote:
Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:56 pm
The author says we lost 1.19 trillion in PPP and promptly goes on to add that amount to nominal GDP and comes up with 3.5 trillion. Ughhh.
That's right. You can't take an article seriously when it has a clickbait title with bad math.
I totally agree with you.
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