The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

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chetak
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:49 am

twitter



In past 24 hrs ,Cong MLA frm Guj ,Bhaga Barad has been convicted for illegal mining & barred from asbly.Cong MLA Gopalakrishna has called for PM's assassination.Cong MLC Muzaffar Parray is ready to shut down J&K for 2 lakhs,while Cong is going around asking for proof of Balakot

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Wed Mar 06, 2019 1:46 pm

AIADMK-DMDK seal alliance in TN.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by arshyam » Wed Mar 06, 2019 4:13 pm

^^ Finally..

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:56 pm

ChetakJi, my hunch and hope I am proved wrong:

1. While as a jingo, I myself would not rate operation Balakot as 100% successful given there are doubts on the exact #of pigLeTs eliminated and the dig fight at LoC when TSP retaliated, nevertheless, ModIji has called nuke bluff and drew a new red line. And for this bold decision alone, he has every right to contrast his aggressive TSP policy with cowardly dossier diplomacy of Pappu & Co. This has so scared the living shit out of thugandhan that they are working overtime to deny ModiJi/NDA that political advantage (did anyone notice that low-life b@stard Derek O'Brien spit on BJP in one interview with Omar Abdullah's keep?). Thus, I see a domestic and international conspiracy to deny ModiJi this advantage. Hence the spate of international media articles saying Balakot was a dud, and Pakis won in the LoC dog fight. As I said, truth is more complicated, and the core issues is the new red line ModiJi established.

2. I strongly suspect that in the new Rafale hearing in the SC, the SC this time will throw a dog bone to Pappu, and that will be enough for thugbandhan to change the narrative from rational security where he and his slaves have no chance to 'chowkidar chor hai'.

Next couple of days are crucial to whether or not India will emerge as a strong Hindu nationalist country under ModiJi or a eunuch country under thugbandhan ripe for western soul harvesting where western aping zombies rule the roost.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Rudradev » Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:55 pm

CRamS ji,

Do you think the US raid on Abbottabad in May 2011 was a success? If so, what "%"?

Did anyone see Osama bin Laden's body, which SEAL Team Six claimed to have retrieved? Ever?

Did it occur to anyone to count (let alone ask for evidence of) the exact # of piglets killed in that event?

Does the loss of a US helicopter (well established) during that operation, make it any less of a success in anyone's opinion?

Frankly, compared to Balakot, that overhyped US raid was a joke. Nobody in Pakistan expected it; whereas after Pulwama, the Pakistan armed forces were on full alert for some repercussion from an India that had already carried out the 2016 surgical strike.

Putting a "%" score on the success of an operation is a fool's errand for anyone except the planners of the operation, who formulated its objectives and analysed its risks/contingencies in excruciating detail. For all we know, the planners may have been surprised to have every single aircraft in the strike package return unscathed, and accordingly might rate the outcome at even higher than 100% of the expected result. Only they know what was expected exactly. All we know is what they tell us.

The anti-Modi ecosystem among white Western media knows that against the new India he has crystallized, they have only one effective weapon: the chronic, helpless, lingering susceptibility of SDREs to take the pronouncements of white people (presented in Good English) as more objectively truthful than anything their fellow SDREs (no matter their level of expertise or authority) might say. They can always rely on colonial hangover to sow some amount of fear, uncertainty, and doubt... even among SDREs who describe themselves as "jingos".

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Dumal » Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:19 am

https://swarajyamag.com/politics/fact-c ... on-1-march

How Karachi and Lahore are influencing TN/AP sentiments. Check out the graphs, if you don’t have time to read through.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Thu Mar 07, 2019 2:28 am

Doing the rounds in whatsapp groups


Who wins? : MiGs vs F 16 by Rakesh Krishnan


Just after 10 am on February 27, 2019, the Pakistan Air Force deployed "a large strike package" of modern F-16 Falcons, Chinese made JF-17s and some vintage Mirage-5 attack jets to avenge India's bombing of terror sanctuaries in Balakot, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. The PAF's targets were Indian military installations - primarily the brigade headquarters in Bhimber Gali, Jammu, minutes from the Line of Control.

The Indian Air Force scrambled six MiG-21s from its frontline air base in Srinagar to intercept the Pakistani fighters; Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman's fighter was among these six aircraft. The IAF also despatched Sukhoi-30MKIs, Mirage-2000s and MiG-29s from other airbases to provide combat air patrol for the MiG-21 interceptors.

In the ensuing dogfight, the first between India and Pakistan since the 1971 War, Wing Commander Varthaman in his Soviet-era jet managed to acquire a lock on one of the F-16s, shooting it down with a short-range Vympel R-73 air to air missile. Although he couldn't see the outcome of the short 15-minute high-altitude dogfight, Varthaman radioed to base the words "R-73 selected". Seconds later he was himself shot down.

Being the first recorded F-16 kill in history, you'd think it would send ripples across the world of aviation. But curiously, Western defence experts maintained complete silence as the impact of what Varthaman had accomplished took the wind out of the F-16's fanboys.

Coping well at Cope India

Coincidentally, 15 years ago to the date, the MiG-21 (NATO reporting name: Fishbed) had defeated modern American F-series aircraft in a mock combat exercise, sending shock waves through the American defence establishment. In the space of just 13 days, at the Cope India exercise held at the Gwalior air force range from February 15-27, 2004, Indian pilots notched up an astounding 9:1 kill ratio against the all-powerful US Air Force, dealing a massive blow to the myth of invincibility of American air power. What happened at Gwalior will better explain how a six-decade-old jet that has been consigned to the boneyard by the Russians could defeat a modern F-16.

Held from February 15-27, Cope India 2004 highlighted three major issues:

The innovativeness of Indian fighter pilots.
The impact of Russian jets when flown by a highly trained and motivated crew.
The limitations in USAF pilot training.
While the Pentagon brass tried to knock the IAF's achievement, the USAF gave their Indian counterparts their due. Aviation Week & Space Technology's David A. Fulghum quotes Colonel Mike Snodgrass, commander of the USAF's 3rd Wing based at Elmendorf Air Force Base, Alaska: "The outcome of the exercise boils down to (the fact that) they ran tactics that were more advanced than we expected...They could come up with a game plan, but if it wasn't working they would call an audible and change (tactics in flight)."

About the different IAF fighters the six F-15Cs from the American pilots encountered, Snodgrass said: "The two most formidable IAF aircraft proved to be the MiG-21 Bison, an upgraded version of the Russian-made baseline MiG-21, and the Su-30MK Flanker, also made in Russia."

About the capabilities of IAF pilots, USAF team leader Colonel Greg Newbech said: "What we've seen in the last two weeks is the IAF can stand toe-to-toe with the best air force in the world. I pity the pilot who has to face the IAF and chances the day to underestimate him; because he won't be going home."

"They made good decisions about when to bring their strikers in. The MiG-21s would be embedded with a (MiG-27) Flogger for integral protection. There was a data link between the Flankers that was used to pass information. They built a very good (radar) picture of what we were doing and were able to make good decisions about when to roll (their aircraft) in and out."

Clearly, it was the IAF's intense training that has given it the edge. A leading Indian newspaper summed up the aerial encounter: "The US Air Force underestimated the Indian Air Force pilots and their numerical skills. They thought these are another set of Iraqi or Iranian pilots."

A different spin in DC

Used to hearing the United States is second only to god, the US leadership nearly burst a collective artery. The USAF detachment had barely packed up its kits at Gwalior when Republican Congressman from California, Duke Cunningham, told a House Appropriations defence subcommittee hearing that USAF F-15Cs had been defeated more than 90 per cent of the time in direct combat exercises against the IAF.

Cunningham's revelation kicked up a huge uproar in Washington. Some Western military observers attempted to debunk the results, claiming the USAF did not bring its true 'go-to-war-gear' to these exercises and that the American pilots fought with several handicaps. What really happened?

Handicapped and totally unprepared

First up, it's true the F-15Cs that participated in Cope India 2004 were not equipped with the latest active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars. But then neither were the Indian jets. Secondly, at India's request the USAF agreed to offer combat at 3-to-1 odds, which meant the six American jets were up against 18 IAF aircraft. And finally, the Americans agreed not to simulate their beyond-visual-range (BVR) missiles. Doesn't look like a fair fight.

But wait, ask yourself, which air force would spend millions of dollars on a fortnight long exercise that ends in a turkey shoot? Not the IAF, which is a highly professional service. Also, why would the USAF bring all that high-octane military gear all that way just to get a drubbing?

The IAF believes its strength is dogfighting, for which it trains hard as Western air forces.. Secondly, the service did not deploy its advanced Su-30 MKI (NATO reporting name: Flanker), only the older Su-30, because the MKI's radar frequencies are classified. There's little advantage in letting your adversary's patron know your combat strategies.

The Indians wanting to even the odds is understandable but the United States accepting these handicaps seems counterintuitive. But in fact the USAF agreed because it was desperate to get a close look at the legendary Flanker.

Why the USAF came up short

The lopsided result can be explained in the difference in combat styles of the two air forces. While the IAF varied aircraft mixes, altitudes and formations, the American pilot seemed stuck in the static Cold War-style of ground-controlled interceptions, which gives little leeway to the individual pilot. Weaknesses in crew performance and limitations in their range of action were evident during the simulated aerial combat.

Also, US fighter pilots train in a closed system where belief in the America military's superiority reigns supreme. The strategy is that overwhelming numbers - recall the 1,000 aircraft raids over defenceless and tiny Iraq - and technological pyrotechnics will allow the US to dominate without sweating it out. With the notable exception of Vietnam, the US has never take on a large or well-trained military - and probably never will - so the strategy has worked for it.

Also, the 1982 wipeout of the Syrian Air Force over the Bekka Valley by the Israeli Air Force in which 82 Syrian MiGs were downed against the loss of perhaps two American-built Israeli jets had reinforced the belief that US jet fighters are invincible. It was Cope India 2004 that showed the quality of the men in uniform matters more than the jets they fly.

Cope India 2005: Repeat performance

Because of the storm kicked up by Cope India 2004 -which threatened the growing Indo-US partnership - the following year the IAF and USAF opted for exercises that had mixed teams of Indian and American pilots on both sides. But observers and participants at the exercise said in a surprising number of encounters - particularly between USAF F-16s and Indian Su-30 MKIs - the Indian pilots came out on top.

Cope India 2005 proved the previous year's IAF performance was no fluke. The late air commodore Jasjit Singh, who was the then director of the new Delhi-based Centre for Air Power Studies, said: "Since the Cold War, there has been the general assumption that India is a third world country with Soviet technology, and wherever Soviet-supported equipment went, it didn't perform well. That myth has been blown away by the results.."

Air power dynamics

For the Americans, Cope India was a wakeup call as it had grossly underestimated an old Cold Warrior. While it expected the Mirage-2000s and Sukhoi to be potent adversaries, the MiG-21 Bison came as a nasty surprise to the USAF. The positive attributes of the MiG-21 such as low radar visibility, instantaneous turn rate and "jackrabbit acceleration" were critical factors that gave it an edge.

Plus, its new of helmet mounted sight and high-off-boresight R-73 air-to-air missiles turned the MiG-21 into a "Great Equaliser" in the WVR (within visual range) combat scenario. (The Vympel's ability to rapidly scan a wider angle of the sky in front of it gave Varthaman a huge advantage against his F-16 rival.)

This has serious implications for modern aircraft armed with powerful long range capabilities and weapons. At some stage these aircraft will have to come within visual range and that's when pocket rockets like the MiG-21 can be deadly. As Benjamin Lambeth of the Rand Corporation so succinctly put its, "In visual combat everybody dies at the same rate."

Fly with caution

Varathaman's heroics should not be a thumbs-up for the IAF to keep flying ancient warhorses. A critical factor in the MiG-21's F-16 kill over Jammu & Kashmir was the combat air patrol provided by the Sukhoi Su-30s, MiG-29s and Mirage-2000s. The extremely long range capabilities of the Su-30s and its legendary super-manoeuvrability give it a huge edge in a dogfight that the much smaller F-16 cannot match. The Sukhoi has a loiter and combat persistence ability that has no Western equivalent.

The knowledge that both these air superiority fighters - plus the powerful Mirage-2000s - could enter the dogfight any time and blow them out of the sky was no doubt weighing on the minds of the PAF pilots.

While appreciating the good word done by the IAF, it is important to keep in mind that the MiG-21 is a 65-year-old design and has an unprecedented crash rate that has taken the lives of at least 177 Indian pilots. And let's not forget that Varthaman's MiG-21 was unable to shake off the powerful AMRAAM air-to-air missile fired at it. The MiG-21 belongs in a boneyard, not in Srinagar where by default it becomes India's frontline aircraft - a role it was given when it first entered the IAF fleet in 1964.

(Rakesh Krishnan is a New Zealand-based defence and foreign affairs analyst)

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:37 am

I don't know if this is true or paid media twisting words but..


"Show Us Terrorists' Bodies": Soldiers' Families On Balakot Air Strike

Https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/show-us ... ke-2003526

But if true. Seriously?? India has become a sick country.. frankly I'm beyond ashamed now. I am starting to believe that Indians deserve UPA and everything that came with it. Hindus should convert and answer to a white/Arab man. This is Kali Yuga.. bhagavan will come and re-establish dharma, till then we have to suffer these traitors.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:18 am

JohnTitor wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 3:37 am
I don't know if this is true or paid media twisting words but..


"Show Us Terrorists' Bodies": Soldiers' Families On Balakot Air Strike

Https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/show-us ... ke-2003526
This forum has never trusted NDTV coverage. Why start now?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:28 am

So, if we assume that there are moles in MoD that stole documents pertaining to Rafale and passed them on to Congis who sent them to P. Bhushan and N. Ram, we can be 400% certain that any document that went to N. Ram is in the hands of the Chinese already.

What are we trying to keep confidential anymore?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:41 am

SSundar wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:28 am
So, if we assume that there are moles in MoD that stole documents pertaining to Rafale and passed them on to Congis who sent them to P. Bhushan and N. Ram, we can be 400% certain that any document that went to N. Ram is in the hands of the Chinese already.

What are we trying to keep confidential anymore?
So someone could steal MoD documents, Pass them onto all and sundry and yet there are no consequences. Atleast we haven't heard anyone getting flogged for it or getting accidented.

Strange and hard to digest.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Muns » Thu Mar 07, 2019 6:37 am

Dumal wrote:
Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:19 am
https://swarajyamag.com/politics/fact-c ... on-1-march

How Karachi and Lahore are influencing TN/AP sentiments. Check out the graphs, if you don’t have time to read through.
There are no words to describe the expletives that came out of my mouth upon reading this. I wondered the same thing as I came across that twitter thread that day. It seemed to me that half the names involved were Muslim names. Makes me wonder that Modi is really fighting not just Indian propaganda but really international propaganda as well. Like NDTV,I've given up on the BBC as well. There isn't a good story left anymore on the BBC. They keep playing that twit Foreign Minister of Pakistan, who keeps stating give us "actionable evidence". BBC really has really just become influenced by 'bradfordistan'.
A sad thing really, because it just plays into propagating the same Islamic hate that the British are currently plagued with.

Another thing that I've been thinking about today is these ongoing Kashmir student attacks. I wonder if NDTV and the Congress government's plan is to now start targeting Hindutva again. Already they have got a few bollywood actors on board stating that Hindutva is comparable to radical Islam. Actually wonder how many of these Congress goons are going around posing as "Hindutvadis" and attacking Kashmir students to create a stereotype that is in line for Rahul's speech. After all, he's the guy who really coined the term Hindu terrorism. We might look into this.

I might've said this before, but after the second series of strikes I think that the Congress government plan is to really go after Modi and in those no holds barred. Secretly I see Rahul, self flagellating himself as part of some secret opus dei Vatican conspiracy about how he is not really able to promote the Hindutva versus radical Islam story earlier. :D
just my thoughts though.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Thu Mar 07, 2019 12:35 pm

Rudradev wrote:
Wed Mar 06, 2019 11:55 pm
CRamS ji,

Do you think the US raid on Abbottabad in May 2011 was a success? If so, what "%"?

Did anyone see Osama bin Laden's body, which SEAL Team Six claimed to have retrieved? Ever?

Did it occur to anyone to count (let alone ask for evidence of) the exact # of piglets killed in that event?

Does the loss of a US helicopter (well established) during that operation, make it any less of a success in anyone's opinion?

Frankly, compared to Balakot, that overhyped US raid was a joke. Nobody in Pakistan expected it; whereas after Pulwama, the Pakistan armed forces were on full alert for some repercussion from an India that had already carried out the 2016 surgical strike.

Putting a "%" score on the success of an operation is a fool's errand for anyone except the planners of the operation, who formulated its objectives and analysed its risks/contingencies in excruciating detail. For all we know, the planners may have been surprised to have every single aircraft in the strike package return unscathed, and accordingly might rate the outcome at even higher than 100% of the expected result. Only they know what was expected exactly. All we know is what they tell us.

The anti-Modi ecosystem among white Western media knows that against the new India he has crystallized, they have only one effective weapon: the chronic, helpless, lingering susceptibility of SDREs to take the pronouncements of white people (presented in Good English) as more objectively truthful than anything their fellow SDREs (no matter their level of expertise or authority) might say. They can always rely on colonial hangover to sow some amount of fear, uncertainty, and doubt... even among SDREs who describe themselves as "jingos".
It is indeed a tragedy that most anglophiles never question the American story on WMD - the purported reason for invading Iraq - or the events glorified in 'Zero Dark Thirty'. And yet are absolutely sure that the backward nation of India, with its teeming millions that are barely eking out a living could ever be able to accomplish anything more meaningful than a token air strike of dubious efficacy. What is worse, so many Indians, well-meaning Jingos too, buy into this narrative. We have been programmed over the years to believe that somehow American $hit does not smell while ours stinks to high heaven. Self-flagellation and doubt is what makes weaklings of all of us, reflecting on to the nation as a whole in a game of endless mirrors.

So be it. Perhaps there is a bright side to it. I've learnt from my own life experience living abroad that sometimes it is a good thing for the opposition to underestimate you. Victory becomes that much sweeter when you smash their faces in at the right moment. And that moment is not too far off.......

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Thu Mar 07, 2019 1:56 pm

crams wrote:Thus, I see a domestic and international conspiracy to deny ModiJi this advantage. Hence the spate of international media articles saying Balakot was a dud, and Pakis won in the LoC dog fight.
I feel Modi & BJP would sail through this. The common pulse which I could on the streets was that Modi did keep his word. He ordered the IAF to bomb Balakot, and he also ensured that the IAF PoW came back to India within 48 hours. From what I could figure out; a lot of common Indians would appreciate a person who keeps his word and makes an honest attempt to improve things. The common Indian man/woman is very different from the elite crowd of nay-sayers and zero self-confidence crowd (but "well educated !?") crowd of India.
JohnTitor wrote:"Show Us Terrorists' Bodies": Soldiers' Families On Balakot Air Strike
This can just massage the ego of the nay-sayers that is all. Point #1, the casualties at Pulwama were CPO (Central Police Organisations) staff, and they are "policemen" not "soldiers" *. But GoI is not going to budge, and who ever paid these families to make such statements will soon have to take care of the problem they created. These family members if they are expecting an all expense paid sight seeing tour to Balakot fat chance they would be helped with that. To be frank if these folks become uppity, CRPF HQ should do some extra checks before giving the PF, Pension and other statutory benefits. Tell them that all dues would be paid after they goto Balakot and come back :evil:.

* I do respect people in uniform, but a police man and soldier are two different entities. Time and again I see rants from BSF, CRPF etc. in which they are shown as "soldiers".
Muns wrote:Another thing that I've been thinking about today is these ongoing Kashmir student attacks. I wonder if NDTV and the Congress government's plan is to now start targeting Hindutva again.
NDTV and other main stream media can continue to show case Kashmiri students (!?) as victims. But with people having multiple sources of information, they cannot continue their propoganda unabated. MSM and "seculars" will start targetting "Hindutwa", but at present the "communals" have also some good arms & ammunitions to hit back at the "seculars". The attitude of the Kashmiri traitors is now getting exposed; that can be seen in people's response to them when Pulwama attack happened. Indian people looks like have started looking beyond Main Stream Media.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Muns » Fri Mar 08, 2019 6:46 am

Supreme Court, has kicked the Ayodhya football to another party. This will of course set another trend and wheel motion for another decade at least until it comes back to the Supreme Court again. I am however worried about how much the Hindu parties will yet again give to remain magnanimous as we always have been. I would like to think that Sri Sri Ravi Shankar has been a good choice. However I would also like to see as part of the mediation committee then, (if this is really the way that it is going to go), perhaps Sadhguru as well. Hmm...Why not Yogi as well as part of the mediation committee too....
I wonder if we can also mediate on other sites as well including Mathura Shahi Eidgah masjid as well as the Varanasi Gyanvapi mosque as well...
I guess time will only tell, but I'm not sure how this plays towards the elections.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:52 am

^ Why are Hindus so accommodating on RJB is beyond me. What purpose is of SC if they can't even make a simple decision.
Can't touch Bhushan, Can't deny bail to all and sundry, can't raise voice against corruption by politicians, can't keep a criminal in Jail (He sits in Ranchi medical college), Can't decide on a case pending for generations.
So what are they good for ? Stoppping us from bursting crackers and running BCCI and throwing of punch lines like a Bollywood movie star.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Rudradev » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:44 pm

Image

https://www.republicworld.com/india-new ... -airstrike

National Approval Ratings: Modi Wave Back In 2019? C-Voter Survey
PM's Popularity In Major Upswing Since Pro-poor Budget - Skyrockets After Pro-India Airstrike

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Rudradev » Fri Mar 08, 2019 11:47 pm

Modi Wave 2.0?
by
Minhaz Merchant
- Mar 05, 2019, 3:37 pm

https://swarajyamag.com/magazine/modi-wave-20
The devastating air strikes on the Pakistani Army-backed Jaish-e- Mohammad terror group in Khy ber Pakhtunkhwa, deep inside-Pakistani territory, has changed the calculus of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, making it the most unpredictable in decades.

Has Congress president Rahul Gandhi, meanwhile, made a tactical error by converting the general election into a quasi-presidential contest? Gandhi’s daily attacks on Prime Minister Narendra Modi, muted temporarily after the Pulwama terror outrage, could attract the law of diminishing returns. Modi has mastered the ability to turn personal attacks into political advantage.

United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi learnt that lesson the hard way. She was among the first politicians to spot Modi’s potential to pose an electoral threat to the Congress following the polarising events of 2002. Modi was then unknown in national politics. Yet Sonia Gandhi, with her well developed political antenna, saw him as a future national leader. In 2007, she called him maut ka saudagar. The remark led to two unintended consequences. One, it elevated Modi, until then regarded as a regional satrap, to the national stage. Two, it coalesced the fragmented Hindu vote around the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Sonia Gandhi was at the peak of her powers. Not only was she chairperson of the UPA government, but she also controlled policy-making through the National Advisory Council (NAC). Her maut ka saudagar taunt directed against Modi was not the first time she had sensed the electoral danger Modi posed to the Congress. The concerted effort to concoct a fraudulent theory of ‘saffron terror’ and implicate BJP leaders in the death of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist Ishrat Jehan revealed the anxiety that lurked in the minds of the Congress high command.

With every attack on him, Modi grew more powerful. He won the 2007 Gujarat assembly election comfortably. The Supreme Court-monitored Special Investigative Team (SIT) grilled him for 10 hours on his role in the 2002 Gujarat riots. The perceived persecution by the Congress and the co-opted media enhanced his national profile. Modi won the 2012 assembly poll to become a three-term chief minister.

But the Congress hadn’t yet absorbed the lesson. It continued to attack Modi personally. He was dismissed as a chaiwala. Modi turned that into an electoral slogan during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, further consolidating the Other Backward Class (OBC) vote around the BJP, long regarded as a Brahmin-dominated party. Rahul Gandhi’s chowkidar chor hai taunt has the potential to hurt the Congress in 2019 as much as the chaiwala taunt hurt it in 2014.

There are three sub-plots in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The first is the likely impact of Modi’s personal chemistry. The Modi wave has ebbed but not receded entirely. The second is Rahul Gandhi’s emergence as an aggressive political leader. As he approaches the age of 50 in June 2020, the Congress president has shed all pretence of engaging in civil political discourse. The third sub-plot is the growth of regional leaders like Mamata Banerjee, Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav in an anti Modi mahagathbandhan.

Turn now to the numbers.

The two states that could determine the outcome of the 2019 general elections are Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra. They account for 120 seats in Parliament. In UP, a Samajwadi Party (SP)-Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)-Congress alliance could have won over 50 per cent of the vote share had Mayawati not vetoed inclusion of the Congress in the state’s gathbandhan. The BJP could have been reduced to less than 20 seats, ending Modi’s chances of a second term.

Mayawati has wittingly or unwittingly thrown him a lifeline by converting a BJP versus BSP-SP-Congress binary battle into a three-cornered contest. This is why the politically shrewd Priyanka Gandhi Vadra wanted the Congress to join the BSP-SP-Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) alliance in Uttar Pradesh. But Mayawati, threatened by the Congress’ publicly declared resolve to form the next government in Uttar Pradesh in 2022 as well as the complications of diluted seat sharing with yet another party, has been cold to the overture.

Priyanka Vadra’s formal entry into politics as general secretary in charge of eastern Uttar Pradesh complicates matters for the BSP-SP alliance. Polls show that her entry will cannibalise far more from the BSP-SP’s vote share than from the BJP’s vote share. Priyanka Vadra’s much heralded debut will thus enhance the Congress’ role as a spoiler to a BSP-SP landslide in Uttar Pradesh.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 42.63 per cent vote share in Uttar Pradesh. SP won 22.35 per cent, BSP 19.77 per cent and Congress 7.53 per cent. Others won 7.72 per cent. With less than 43 per cent vote share, the BJP swept 71 out of 80 seats in what was not only a Modi wave election but, crucially, a multi-cornered contest. The math and chemistry in 2019 are vastly different. In a three-cornered contest, and with the Modi wave ebbing, the BJP could face serious headwinds in India’s largest state. Congress vote share could rise with Priyanka Vadra’s high voltage campaign from 7.5 per cent to 12.5 per cent. The majority of this increase will come from the Muslim and Dalit vote banks of SP and BSP respectively. The BSP-SP-RLD gathbandhan’s vote share could now fall back to around 40 per cent as cross-cannibalisation occurs.

The BJP’s upper caste vote share may remain protected by the 10 per cent quota for Economically Weaker Sections (EWS). Brahmins comprise 11 per cent of Uttar Pradesh’s electorate. Together with Modi’s vast OBC catchment area, the BJP could again hit the 40 per cent mark. A 40:40:12.5 per cent vote share outcome for SP-BSP-RLD:BJP:Congress (with 7.5 per cent going to others) can lead to a tricky outcome.

Moreover, in a three-cornered fight, transfer of votes is critical. Will the SP’s Muslim and Yadav votes transfer to the 38 seats the BSP will contest? Will the BSP’s Dalit votes similarly transfer to the SP’s 37 seats? Or will some drift to the Congress and some to the BJP? Crucially, how will the 40-plus seat aspirants in the BSP and SP, shut out from contesting by the alliance’s seat-sharing, react? Will Shivpal Yadav throw a spanner in the works? How will the SP cadre react after Mulayam Singh Yadav’s endorsement in the Lok Sabha of Modi as the next prime minister?

Other factors too will come into play.

The Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) and Vishwa Hindu Parishad (VHP) have deferred their Ram Temple agitation until after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, ostensibly not to politicise a matter of faith. That could be an own-goal. For decades, the RSS and VHP have done nothing but politicise the Ayodhya issue. Now just before the critical general elections, their pious decision reveals undercurrents, which may not please Modi. Nonetheless, the Supreme Court will soon hear the Ayodhya suit as well as the government’s application to stay an old order on returning 67 acres of undisputed land to its original owners, the Ram Janmabhoomi Nyas.

Whatever the pace and outcome of concurrent hearings in the apex court, the Ram Temple may play a significant role in the 2019 general elections. While development will be Modi’s calling card in Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath will appeal to Hindutva sentiment. Of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh, in a three-cornered fight against the BSP-SPRLD gathbandhan and the Congress, the BJP can hope to garner 35 seats.

The second state which could decide Modi’s fortunes is Maharashtra. Contesting together, the BJP and Shiv Sena will probably sweep the state’s 48 seats. The BJP could scoop up as many as 24 seats of the 25 seats it is contesting (leaving 23 for the Shiv Sena): The BJP’s tally in the two states: 59 of the 120 Lok Sabha seats on offer.

Turn now to the nine other key states that could determine the outcome of the
2019 general elections. First, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Haryana in north, west and central India. Total: 101 Lok Sabha seats.

In 2014, the BJP won an extraordinary 95/101 seats in these five states. In 2019, there will be significant losses for the party of around 20 seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Gujarat and Haryana though will remain strong with a potential loss of just three to five seats.

The total loss in these five states in north, west and central India is therefore likely to be about 25 seats. That could reduce the BJP’s tally in the five key states to 70/101 seats in 2019.

Consider now the east: Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand. Total: 117 Lok Sabha seats. In 2014, the BJP won only 37 seats in these four states, the bulk (34) coming from Bihar (22) and Jharkhand (12). In 2019, following an unfavourable seat sharing formula in Bihar with testy ally Janata Dal (United) or JD(U), and faced with a strong Congress-Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) alliance in Jharkhand, the BJP stands to lose up to 10 seats collectively in Bihar and Jharkhand.

It though could more than make up that loss from Odisha and West Bengal, which is why Modi has spent so much time campaigning in those two states. The overall gain in the east thus could be two seats. However, if the Left and Congress arrive at seat adjustments in West Bengal, it could complicate matters for the BJP, which would benefit most from a four-cornered fight with the Trinamool Congress (TMC), Congress and the Left.

Let’s summarise the numbers thus far.

In Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, the BJP is likely to win 59 seats. In the other five key states in the north, west and centre, the BJP could win 70 of 101 Lok Sabha seats. In the four states in the east, the tally would be 39 of 117 seats with West Bengal and Odisha making up for losses in Bihar and Jharkhand.

Thus the total so far in 11 key states is: 59 (UP and Maharashtra) +70 (Rajasthan,
MP, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh and Haryana) +39 (Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand and Bihar) = 168 seats out of 338 seats.

What about the remaining 18 states and seven Union territories?

The BJP will do well in Uttarakhand (five/five seats), Himachal Pradesh (three/four seats), Delhi (six/seven seats, assuming the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party fight separately), seven northeast states and Sikkim (15/25 seats, taking the adverse reaction to the lapsed Citizenship Amendment Bill into account). Total: 29 seats out of 41 seats on offer. That will boost the BJP total from 168 to 197 seats.

The BJP’s tally thus far is 197 out of 379 seats. The south now comes into the picture. Apart from Karnataka, however, the BJP is unlikely to make an impression.

The five southern states account for 129 seats. The BJP will likely do well in Karnataka (15/28 seats) against the fractious Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress alliance but pick up only the odd seat or two in each of Kerala, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu. The BJP’s southern tally: 20 seats out of 129 seats.

The overall tally for the BJP therefore rises to 217 seats out of 508 seats analysed so far. The BJP will draw a blank in Punjab’s 13 seats but gain around eight seats from Goa, Jammu and Kashmir and seven Union territories.

The final tally for the BJP could thus move up to 225 out of 543 seats.

What about the allies? There are two big ones, JD(U) and Shiv Sena, and two smaller ones — All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) — with the Akalis likely to be wiped out in Punjab. Between them, the JD(U), Shiv Sena, AIADMK and LJP could contribute up to 35 seats at best.

The NDA total? 225+35 = 260.

How will the air strikes on the JeM affect these numbers? In the 11 big states in the north, centre and west it could add 25-40 seats to the BJP’s tally. The post-strike math: BJP 250-265 + NDA allies 35 = 285-300.

The Congress’ task meanwhile is to lift itself from the abysmal 44 seats it won in 2014 to at least 125 in order for Rahul Gandhi to have a realistic chance of leading a mahagathbandhan government in 2019. Congress’ main catchment areas are Karnataka, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Kerala and Punjab. In these six states the Congress can at best expect to garner 55-60 seats. The other key states of UP, Bihar and Maharashtra are unlikely to prove electorally fertile. The Congress’ Lok Sabha tally could therefore stop at 85-90 seats.

Along with principal UPA constituents Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, JD(S), Nationalist Congress Party, and National Conference, the UPA’s tally could touch 125-130 seats.

What about the mahagathbandhan? The TMC, SP, BSP, Telugu Desam Party, AAP and the Left will probably win 90 seats between them. The UPA-led mahagathbandhan could therefore garner 210-215 Lok Sabha seats.

The third front comprising, in the main, the Biju Janata Dal, Telangana Rashtra Samithi and YSR Congress Party would be expected to win, as outlined earlier, 35-40 seats. The UPA-led mahagathbandhan would need over 70 seats from the three principal parties in the third front as well as independents and others to stitch together a majority. That is a tall order.


The 2019 Lok Sabha elections, following recent events, could see the emergence of Modi Wave 2.0.


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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:40 am

CPEC concerns making China apprehensive about supporting ban on Masood Azhar: Report

CPEC concerns making China apprehensive about supporting ban on Masood Azhar: Report

This is the fourth time that a proposal has been moved to brand Masood Azhar a global terrorist. The previous three attempts have been blocked by China

OPINDIA STAFF
MARCH 8, 2019

China apprehensive about changing minds on Masood Azhar's terror designation


The People’s Republic of China, which has repeatedly blocked India’s efforts to designate Masood Azhar a terrorist, is reportedly apprehensive about changing its mind, as it thinks it will make the multi-billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) prone to attacks by Jaish-e-Mohammed.

According to an Economic Times report, China is thinking about changing its stand on Masood Azhar and not use the veto to prevent him from getting listed as a terrorist on March 13th when the proposal moved by France and supported by other UNSC permanent members under United Nations Security Council Resolution 1267 goes under consideration.

For this, it is reported that it will have to exert pressure on Pakistan to tie down security guarantees regarding CPEC. China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kong Xuanyou’s visit to Pakistan, this month, is also said to be have been done in this regard.

The $62 billion CPEC project, part of China’s giant programme Belt and Road Initiative, intends to construct modern infrastructures in Pakistan, including highway and railway networks, energy projects, to bolster the country’s economic backbone. According to reports, around 10,000 Chinese nationals are working on the project. Last week, China also sent socio-economic development experts to Pakistan to gear up projects in areas like education and water.

The corridor passes through Pakistan-Occupied-Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and also Mansehra district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where Balakot is present. It is considered a hotbed of activities of JeM and was recently hit by air strikes conducted by India.

China, reportedly, has acquired a large amount of land near Balakot and the Karakoram Highway that connects Pakistan with China through POK also crosses Mansehra making them prone to JeM’s terror activities.

India has been persistent in its approach to declare Masood Azhar as a global terrorist. In 2009, India had moved a proposal to ban Azhar. In 2016 again, India moved a similar proposal with the P3 nations: The United States, the United Kingdom, and France in the UN’s 1267 Sanctions Committee. The P3 nations had moved the same proposal in 2017, too. However, all proposals brought no fruit for India, as all of them were blocked by veto-wielding China. Even after the Pulwama attack last month, China has shown no difference in its position.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:42 am

C-system is worried that the proof is too strongly in favor of a temple at RJB. If SC passes judgement in favor of RJB it will set legal precedent for other similar destroyed temples. Hence, the push for mediation. The Hindu side should just say we tried and failed and ask SC to pass judgement. Or else use legislation in parliament.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Sat Mar 09, 2019 3:23 am

Supratik wrote:
Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:42 am
C-system is worried that the proof is too strongly in favor of a temple at RJB. If SC passes judgement in favor of RJB it will set legal precedent for other similar destroyed temples. Hence, the push for mediation. The Hindu side should just say we tried and failed and ask SC to pass judgement. Or else use legislation in parliament.
just look at the tortured legal history of this issue.

some people insist, demand and "legally" ensure their supremacy, even by going against the constitution of India, its true letter and spirit, to propagate the "rights" of a select few to hold on to power.

In the end, they just do not have the testicular fortitude to pronounce judgement and time and again end up in a craven display of their usual spinal suppleness to sidestep issues and bury their responsibilities with a view to avoiding them altogether.

They are begging the govt of the day to rescue them and legislate so that they can later "strike down" such legislation as unconstitutional and assert their supremacy once again.

ultimately, the Goi, probably some future GoI, will legislate, and also amend the constitution to ensure that such freeloaders are not allowed to tamper with justice nor allowed to self propagate their own self serving tribe.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Sat Mar 09, 2019 2:48 pm

Muns wrote:I would like to think that Sri Sri Ravi Shankar has been a good choice. However I would also like to see as part of the mediation committee then, (if this is really the way that it is going to go), perhaps Sadhguru as well.
Vikas wrote:So what are they good for ? Stoppping us from bursting crackers and running BCCI and throwing of punch lines like a Bollywood movie star.
Supratik wrote:The Hindu side should just say we tried and failed and ask SC to pass judgement. Or else use legislation in parliament.
Does any one have the same feelings like me? That Hon.SC is being a given a very long rope to hang? May be it was only in the last five years that judicial system in India has been on the limelight (and often for wrong reasons). Generally people never used to complain/question verdicts coming from Hon.SC. Now there is at least quite a strong murmur questioning the integrity of the judiciary as well as the appointment system followed (Collegium et.al).

The BJP also seems to be quite pleased with the latest plans of mediation. A cursory (token) attempt can be made, and then the mediators can go back to the judges and say they have tried but failed, now please pass the orders. Hon.SC also seems to be hoping that BJP (or some other political party) would save them, by bringing in a legislation.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Sat Mar 09, 2019 4:25 pm

There has to be constant pressure in the public sphere by the pro-RJB forces, if it polarizes the voting public, so be it, that in turn will benefit the BJP. People are savvy enough to see through the 'soft Hindu' approach of RaGa and Co.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Zynda » Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:50 pm

OK folks. It seems like Karnataka wing of IYC, the youth arm of INC is doing door-door campaign in Karnataka about NaMo's failure. I think they are scheduled to be some where near my house in the next two weeks. I think some of their documents contain following content wrt Rafale scam, recent events with TSP (highlighting UPA's decision on upgrading IAF fighters) etc. I am pasting some info here. Would appreciate if folks could come up with points on countering the same
Congress deal was to get
- 126 Rafales (what IAF wants)
- Made in India by HAL
- Cheaper rate per jet

Modi cancelled that in 2016 for
- 36 Rafales only
- Made with Ambani
- Costlier rate per jet

Who bought & upgraded the Mirage 2000?
Who bought & upgraded the MiG-29?
Who bought the Su-30?
Who upgraded the MiG-21, enabling it to shoot down an F-16?
Congress.

Who turned down a French offer for the Mirage 2000 assembly line?
BJP.
Some of them are obvious like cheaper rate per jet (for people like follow defence news closely) but it would be nice if we could come up with bullet points rebuttal on some of the more complex issues (like 36 Rafale jets instead of 126) etc.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Mort Walker » Sat Mar 09, 2019 7:51 pm

Here is some feedback:

Congress deal was to get
- 126 Rafales (what IAF wants)
- Made in India by HAL
- Cheaper rate per jet

The selection was done by the IAF and MoD, not INC; however, it was MMS and AK Antony that cancelled the acquisition because of kickbacks. The Rafales was selected on 31 Jan 2012. The INC government dragged on negotiations until late 2014 - well before elections, and then cancelled the acquisition in 2015 because the BRIBES TO INC WERE INSUFFICIENT.

Who bought & upgraded the Mirage 2000?
Who bought & upgraded the MiG-29?
Who bought the Su-30?
Who upgraded the MiG-21, enabling it to shoot down an F-16?

*Both the Mirage 2000 and Mig-29 were acquired when the BJP did not exist as a viable political entity in the early 1980s, the JanSangh was a grass roots movement at the time. Indira government was in power. Who knows how much of a kickback there was to the INC and mafia family.
*The Su-30 acquisition was by the PVN Rao government. This only happened because that government was loyal to India and not the mafia family. This was over 24 years ago. Since then, the INC has been in power for 10 years and has left the armed forces in disarray.
*The Mig-21 should have been replaced by the LCA, but the INC has dragged on its production since 2004. If WC Abhinandan was in the Tejas, he would have turned faster and shot down another F-16.

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