The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

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Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:27 pm

Just like Trudeau was humiliated and then Modi hugged him, MBS was humiliated and asked to go back to Saudi and come to India from there not from Pak. Message sent, next should be to observe what they do. The middle east oil economies will start to totter once electric vehicles become widespread.

Meanwhile, AGP may really with BJP in AS.

https://theprint.in/politics/bjp-and-as ... es/195561/

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by arshyam » Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:44 pm

Gus saar, what's your reading on the ground situation in TN?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Haldiram » Wed Feb 20, 2019 6:34 pm

Mort Walker wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:54 am
Request for Help:

The constant barrage of news as to how the BJP and Hindu Nationalists have increased attacks on minorities is always the underlying anti-NDA story. However, can someone please provide data from the NCRB (National Crime Records Bureau) and CBI about communal violence? In fact, from all evidence communal violence has declined since May 2014. In contrast, in the US hate crimes based on race and religion have increased significantly since late 2016 from FBI statistics.

NCRB has not published any data after 2016.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Wed Feb 20, 2019 8:04 pm


chetak
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:05 pm

J&K govt withdraws security cover of 18 separatists, 155 political persons including IAS officer Shah Faesal



J&K govt withdraws security cover of 18 separatists, 155 political persons including IAS officer Shah Faesal

Feb 20, 2019

Jammu: The Jammu and Kashmir administration Wednesday withdrew security of 18 separatists and 155 political persons, including PDP leader Wahid Parra and IAS officer Shah Faesal, officials said.

The security review meeting, which was held under the chairmanship of state chief secretary BVR Subrahmanyam, took the decision as it was felt that providing security to these separatist leaders is a "wastage" of scarce State resources which could be better utilised elsewhere.

Among the leaders whose security has been downgraded and withdrawn are SAS Geelani, Aga Syed Mosvi, Maulvi Abbas Ansari, Yaseen Malik, Saleem Geelani, Shahid ul Islam, Zaffar Akbar Bhat, Nayeem Ahmed Khan, Mukhtar Ahmad Waza, Farooq Ahmed Kichloo, Masroor Abbas Ansari, Aga Syed Abul Hussain, Abdul Gani Shah and Mohd Musadiq Bhat. This is in addition to the four separatists whose security was withdrawn on Sunday.

The security of 155 political persons and activists, who did not require the security provided to them based on their threat assessment and their activities, was also withdrawn. This includes Shah Faesal, the 2010 IAS topper from Jammu and Kashmir who recently resigned from bureaucracy, and PDP leader Wahid Parra, the officials said. Through this, over 1,000 police personnel and over 100 vehicles are freed to do regular police work, they said.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:29 pm

Read the article in full, if you have the time.

Its just another poll but it seems to be interesting.






#TimesMegaPoll: 83% say Modi-led government is most likely most likely outcome after 2019 general election


#TimesMegaPoll: 83% say Modi-led government is most likely most likely outcome after 2019 general election

Feb 21, 2019

NEW DELHI: With Lok Sabha elections just a few weeks away, PM Modi has received a massive thumbs up in a mega Times Group online poll, with over two-thirds (83%) of the over 2 lakh respondents who took the survey saying a Modi-led NDA government was the most-likely possibility after the polls.

The poll also indicates that the Prime Minister’s personal popularity remains high. With the official announcement of the general election days away, 84% of respondents said that they would prefer Narendra Modi as PM candidate if Lok Sabha polls were held today.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by shravanp » Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:44 pm

Watched a couple of youtube videos made by people who rode on T-18 inaugural Delhi-Varanasi route. Mad excitement and people are quite proud. Even ordinary janta spoke about how this is a proud make in India initiative. Crowds on platform recording the train from their phones. Even though none of them were political or anything, the underlying vibe is VERY clear on who they would vote for.


chetak
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:54 pm

100 billion dollars investment in India??

not even 1/5th of this amount did the saudis invest in pukiland

imran khan niazi must have fainted




Na biwi na bachha na
Baap bada na maiyan
The whole thing is that ke
Bhaiya sabse bada rupaiya
Na biwi na bachha na
Baap bada na maiyan
The whole thing is that ke
Bhaiya sabse bada rupaiya


Bina rupaiya to mister
Teri mummy ka pyar
Jo paida karta tuje to
Kabhi na kar sakta mere yaar
Doc laut jata fee na milti agar
Tu maa ke paute ke
Ander rah jata har baar
Woh kiya jisne paida
Wo isvar hai na maiyan
The whole thing is that ke
Bhaiya sabse bada rupaiya


Haath khali agar tu
Mar gay mere jaan
Na agni tuje chuegi na
Dharti degi maan
Had yeh hai mere bhai
Yeh khudaun ka ghar
Teri daulat ne banaya to
Khush hoye allah bhagwaan
Tu is duniya ki khatir
Jode ja aana paiya
The whole thing is that ke
Bhaiya sabse bada rupaiya


Ek leader ko dekho he
Is looking for every francs
Udata phirta dinner in
Hotel sun and sand
Uske ladke ki shadi
Dekh ke jaye na pooch
Kahan se aaya yeh haathi
Kahan se yeh english band
Aaj kahan ka nation
Kahe ki dharti maiyan
The whole thing
Is that ke bhaiya
Sabse bada rupaiya.

ANI Verified account @ANI

MEA: Saudi Arabia to invest $100 billion in India - a huge vote of confidence in the Indian economy. PM Modi welcomed the announcement by #SaudiCrownPrince to invest in areas like energy, refining, petrochemicals, infrastructure, agriculture, manufacturing, etc.

Image


Don't only intepret those as only 100 billion. those 100 billion will generate jobs, create infrastructure, help in tackling poverty and provide huge tax to govt, in turn boosting the economy


on second thoughts, is it a broad hint/sop to India not to attack the pakis??

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by KarthikSan » Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:22 am

arshyam wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:44 pm
Gus saar, what's your reading on the ground situation in TN?
Saar, there is an undercurrent that is not obvious. While the Tamil nation types and the DK types who are in the evangelical-jehadi payroll are trying to create the appearance of an anti-Modi wave there is no real such thing given the absence of a charismatic leader to lead them. The recent killing of a true secular Hindu activist by peacefools has jolted the usually lethargic Tamil Hindu out of his/her sleep and the reaction (or lack of it )of Tamil sickulars has also given a glimpse of what is in store for the aam Hindu if UPA wins.

NM is favored for the post of PM even though state BJP is a clown car brigade. There is real anti incumbency against the ruling EPS-OPS crew but it may not be as bad in the context of national elections. EPS has handled a few things well including the recent JACTTO-GEO strike, timely doles for Pongal etc. All in all it will be a close fight but I think NM is viewed positively for the post of PM (social media propaganda not withstanding) and may be at a slight advantage. If NM makes a couple more trips to TN before the elections and if the likes of Tamilmusic and Co. don't screw up things NDA is on track to win 20-25 seats.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Aditya_V » Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:52 am

I think Stalin, Seeman, Director Ameer, JKLF Yasin Malik, Vaiko, INC leaders, Communists with thier Loyola college pictures, TMMK leaders and SDPI hold public meetings together.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Thu Feb 21, 2019 6:07 am

Aditya_V wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:52 am
I think Stalin, Seeman, Director Ameer, JKLF Yasin Malik, Vaiko, INC leaders, Communists with thier Loyola college pictures, TMMK leaders and SDPI hold public meetings together.
The bolded parts/characters - sure that would also bring sad memories of the Pulwama attack and the murders of Hindu activists by the peacefools. And Congress may not join this group as that will not help them play their soft-Hindutwa card.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Aditya_V » Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:36 am

These people have been addressing gatherings, just bringing them together with Bombast media shows will be nice.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:52 am

arshyam wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 5:44 pm
Gus saar, what's your reading on the ground situation in TN?
As you know, things are in flux now, with established leaders with proven vote bank gone.

some changes in voter groups - tamil nationalists / exceptionalists who are getting coopted into modi hate by dravidian and minority dominated media space. Seeman will lose his votebase to this.

regular people put off with Dravidian BS, minority appeasement etc and some amount of reverse polarization is happening. I was shocked at my mom using word 'sombu thookaravan for muslims' for stalin when ramalingam issue happened.

caste combo of admk alliance (assuming DMDK and PT comes in as well)

- favors it in west TN - traditionally admk, and eps being from area, they start strong here.

- favors in vanniyar significant areas of north, salem, dharmapuri etc. DMDK can add to strength

- south areas of PT devendra kula vellalars. TTV will take some thevar votes, but ADMK is still in fighting position in south.

Urban northern areas and wherever minorities are significant, it will be dmk as their turnout will be higher.

anti-modi propaganda fueled by "color revolution" style campaigns with neduvasal, gail, 8 lane road etc have gone stale and won't get any more votes. Kamal, Seeman and TTV may split some of that votes.

You can see why DMK mouthpieces are now calling kamal as fox (code for cunning brahmin) and what not.. :lol:

I do believe that BJP will announce some mega schemes to give substance for ADMK to go talk about in campaigning.

-to be contd-

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Thu Feb 21, 2019 7:53 am

seat share info from my politico friend

Image

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:01 am

bjp to contest 5 in trichy, KK, nellai, thiruppur and kovai.

KK, thiruppur and cbe - they start strong. it's theirs to lose.

small parties like PT, IJK, kongu party, arjun sampath etc..are all given 1 seat each in their traditional strongholds and out of 8, they can get 3/4 conservatively.

ADMK, PMK, DMDK contesting 15, 7, 5. I expect 5-10 range minimum.

So all in all - it looks about 20-20 with 5 seats swing on either side.

It won't be a sweep for either alliance. But advantage is wrested back from dmk. they have NO CARDS to play. EPS and Modi still have cards to play.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:09 am

i have to say EPS has shown what a fine strategist he is. held cards close to chest. negated moves from TTV and Stalin. Used anti-bjp elements in own party to negotiate hard bargain with bjp. gave more concessions to PMK in exchange for mid terms gain in PMK strong areas - which he needs to keep the majority.

mopped up all remaining parties in a grand rainbow alliance against dmk-congress and ensured that alliance is headed by admk. gave up more seats, but made sure that they contest on admk symbol so that they cannot be broken away by bjp into separate alliances post-poll.

from a poor position after JJ death and Sasi family taking over the party, he has navigated his way to strong position inside party, strong position to have some prominence in both post 2019 central govt and continue as CM to complete the term.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:14 am

Gus wrote:small parties like PT, IJK, kongu party, arjun sampath
Is the bolded party headed by one Mr. Thaniyarasu/Thamilarasu? I see his name & pictures generally in Erode & Salem Dt.
i have to say EPS has shown what a fine strategist he is. held cards close to chest.
Where does OPS @ O.Paneerselvam fit in to this picture? I hope they both get along well. Three weeks back on my drive through TN, I had seen a mega rally in Krishnagiri Dt, with the key factor being both EPS & OPS were attending the function. Multiple convoys on the road and heavy police bandobust.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:49 am

Sachin wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:14 am
Is the bolded party headed by one Mr. Thaniyarasu/Thamilarasu? I see his name & pictures generally in Erode & Salem Dt.
thaniyarasu is a dumbo centered around namakkal area..he runs an outfit that got alliance with JJ in last MLA election. made some money from TTV defection and is called on tv as he can dissent on admk.

Easwaran runs a bigger kongu outfit. but thaniyarasu has his name plastered on everything in the roads in the area.

Where does OPS @ O.Paneerselvam fit in to this picture? I hope they both get along well.
they have no option other than getting along well. divided, they strengthen TTVD who will banish them both if he takes over the party. so they have to work together to win power and keep all insiders happy and not go to TTV camp that still has most money in all of admk.

OPS still has signing power over the election commission forms and he will have a say in internal affairs but govt and CM face will be EPS.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Nandu » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:01 am

Gus wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:49 am
Sachin wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 8:14 am
Is the bolded party headed by one Mr. Thaniyarasu/Thamilarasu? I see his name & pictures generally in Erode & Salem Dt.
thaniyarasu is a dumbo centered around namakkal area..he runs an outfit that got alliance with JJ in last MLA election. made some money from TTV defection and is called on tv as he can dissent on admk.

Easwaran runs a bigger kongu outfit. but thaniyarasu has his name plastered on everything in the roads in the area.

Where does OPS @ O.Paneerselvam fit in to this picture? I hope they both get along well.
they have no option other than getting along well. divided, they strengthen TTVD who will banish them both if he takes over the party. so they have to work together to win power and keep all insiders happy and not go to TTV camp that still has most money in all of admk.

OPS still has signing power over the election commission forms and he will have a say in internal affairs but govt and CM face will be EPS.
That is a fairly comprehensive summary of the TN election scene. Great analysis! There was some talk that TTV might opt out of Parliamentary election on the plea that his fight is for restoring true Amma rule in TN. The logic is this. He is not getting any fresh inflow of funds as he is completely shut out of power structure in TN. Not even the gentleman's agreement of 90-10 which was in vogue when MGR was chief minister and Karunanidhi in opposition. He would prefer to throw what chump change he must (overall hoard is believed to be Rs 15,000 crore- his share alone) in fighting assembly election which if he wins would restore legitimacy to his claim that he after Sasikala is the true interior of the JJ legacy. Or may be he would enter the fray for the 21 assembly by elections which are slated to be held along with Parliamentary election. If he does better than ADMK, that would serve his interest just as well.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Aditya_V » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:18 am

Nandu wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:01 am
That is a fairly comprehensive summary of the TN election scene. Great analysis! There was some talk that TTV might opt out of Parliamentary election on the plea that his fight is for restoring true Amma rule in TN. The logic is this. He is not getting any fresh inflow of funds as he is completely shut out of power structure in TN. Not even the gentleman's agreement of 90-10 which was in vogue when MGR was chief minister and Karunanidhi in opposition. He would prefer to throw what chump change he must (overall hoard is believed to be Rs 15,000 crore- his share alone) in fighting assembly election which if he wins would restore legitimacy to his claim that he after Sasikala is the true interior of the JJ legacy. Or may be he would enter the fray for the 21 assembly by elections which are slated to be held along with Parliamentary election. If he does better than ADMK, that would serve his interest just as well.
It was not 90:10, it was 2:1 ration, MGR will ask when bribe of 2 boxes reaches him, Gopalapuramike oru potti pocha?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Nandu » Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:31 am

Aditya_V
My source is from the film industry from back then. Although he was quite influential I could not vouchsafe the claim. It could well have been 2:1 as you say.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Thu Feb 21, 2019 11:46 am

Nandu wrote:
Thu Feb 21, 2019 10:01 am
He would prefer to throw what chump change he must (overall hoard is believed to be Rs 15,000 crore- his share alone) in fighting assembly election which if he wins would restore legitimacy to his claim that he after Sasikala is the true interior of the JJ legacy.
But won't OPS & EPS duo also use the state machinery (and take help from central agencies if required) to put road blocks on the path of TTVD? Some raids, or charges of "distributing money" etc. etc.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Thu Feb 21, 2019 1:06 pm

TTVD only game is to play spoilsport and retain some followership and eventually find a small space where he can lord over.

I suspect that sasi is going to be in jail for a longer time. some new FERA cases have also been slapped.

He has not managed to pull anymore than who he pulled already long time back. the rest have realized that they don't have to be under the thumb of a family and crawl to their feet like they did for JJ and for a week at sasikala feet. :rotfl:

I am eternally thankful to modi-shah for getting rid of that family from power.

Now...on to getting rid of another family :twisted:

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by vishvak » Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:14 pm

Supratik wrote:
Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:27 pm
..The middle east oil economies will start to totter once electric vehicles become widespread.

..
Did Abdali from Afghanistan (invited by religious leaders) worry about destroying logistics of Marathas during third Panipat war?

Another important point is about source of energy that would charge batteries - and logistics within will help out tremendously here. Hopefully the energy department will be able to make corrections when global energy supply shows skew.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:17 pm

Why this gent should be opining on such matters, especially now, that he has retired was puzzling me. He was being quoted all over the paki media.

But, seek, and ye shall find the answer, and indeed, find I did.



ANI Verified account @ANI

Congress President Rahul Gandhi to set up a Task Force on National Security to prepare a vision paper for the country. Lt Gen DS Hooda (retd) to lead the Task Force and prepare the paper in consultation with a select group of experts.


Image
4:58 am - 21 Feb 2019


Pulwama explosives obtained locally, says Indian commander


Pulwama explosives obtained locally, says Indian commander


Anwar Iqbal
February 17, 2019

Image

WASHINGTON: “It is not possible to bring such massive amounts of explosives by infiltrating the border,” says an Indian military commander, Lt Gen D.S. Hooda.

India blames Pakistan for Thursday’s suicide bombing in Pulwama that killed over 40 soldiers in India-held Kashmir. Pakistan has strongly rejected the Indian claim, urging New Delhi to avoid such “sad and baseless knee-jerk reactions”.

The Indian media reported that the suicide car-bomber Aadil Ahmad Dar used more than 750 pounds of explosives against the military convoy he targeted.

India’s options for putting diplomatic pressure on Pakistan are limited, so are its options for a military response, says report

Gen Hooda, who commanded the Indian army’s Northern Command during a similar crisis in September 2016, told The New York Times on Saturday that “the material may have been taken from stashes of explosives” being used to broaden the Jammu highway where the attack occurred.

The newspaper also noted that India’s options for putting diplomatic pressure on Pakistan were limited, so were its options for a military response.

“Pakistan is largely shielded by its alliance with China, which has used its veto power at the United Nations Security Council to protect it,” said the NYT report while explaining why India did not have too many options for diplomatically isolating Pakistan.

“India’s options for a military response are also limited, analysts say, with the disputed border blanketed in thick snow and Pakistani troops on high alert,” the report added.

Diplomatic observers in Washington pointed out that the United States will also not like to isolate Pakistan, particularly now when it’s playing a key role in US-Taliban talks. A semi-official US media outlet, Voice of America, reported that American and Taliban officials are set to meet in Islamabad on Monday for a new round of direct peace negotiations aimed at paving the way for a political settlement to the war in Afghanistan.

The NYT report also hinted that the bomber might have been motivated by domestic reasons to carry out the attack.

“The nature of Thursday’s bombing suggests the insurgency is adapting and becoming more homegrown, leaving observers to question how deep the links to Pakistan really run,” the newspaper observed.

It pointed out that Dar was from a village about six miles from where the Indian convoy was struck ... and the explosives he packed into his car appear to have been locally procured.

The report noted that “an insurgency that was once stoked by Pakistan may have taken on a life of its own, as Kashmiris become more disenfranchised and angry at the central government in Delhi and its use of force”.

Some of Dar’s friends told NYT that he turned to militancy after he was wounded at a protest in 2016, where his leg was struck by a bullet fired by the Central Reserve Police Force, a paramilitary unit. “Many Kashmiris loathe the paramilitary unit, viewing it as an occupying force recruited from across India to suppress them,” the report added.

It also noted that the attack had “prompted new questions about how tenable (Prime Minister Narendra) Modi’s hard-line strategy” in Kashmir was.

India has about 250,000 armed forces in Kashmir, making it one of the most militarised corners of the world. “The armed presence affects everyday life for most locals, whose farmland, homes or schools are overshadowed by the military presence,” NYT added.

Yet, a former White House adviser on South Asian affairs, Joshua White, warned that India could pursue “a limited military action, more useful for catharsis than deterrence”.

“The sad reality is that until and unless Pakistan itself makes a decision to stop harbouring groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad, there is little that India or the United States can do to diminish the threat of these devastating attacks,” he said.

Marvin Weinbaum, the senior most scholar of South Asian affairs in Washington, noted that the ruling party in India was in trouble and therefore “it could see a strong retaliatory action as a way to mustering support”.

Michael Kugelman, Woodrow Wilson Centre, Washington, said: “How exactly India responds will depend on how much risk it’s willing to take on if it chooses to escalate.”

Mr Kugelman also identified some non-military actions that India could take, such as cutting off diplomatic ties with Pakistan or revoking the Indus Waters Treaty.

Published in Dawn, February 17th, 2019

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