The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

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crams
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:29 pm

I am not a pollster, but just having a sense of of the pulse of Indian voters, the main issues in India it seems to me are economic goodies and caste. With caste divisions so deep, I am wondering how much Hinduthva can actually unite. But this goes back to SuSwamy's famous Troika: Development, Corruption, and Hinduthva. But then again, Both Raman Singh and Shivraj Chouhan were not bad at all on all 3, and yet people preferred Pappu & Co. That is disgusting and really needs to be dissected.

India, BJP, ModiJI, Dharmic causes are much more infinitly important than my feelings, but just a casual perusal of the newspapers and seeing the usual BJP haters gloating, make me sick to my stomach.

Any statement from the BJP big-wigs just yet: ModiJi, JetLeee, Amit Shah etc?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by vinod » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:33 pm

BJP should have uprooted the ecosystem left behind congress. Instead, it still is around.. This victory proves that. Congress will go after their opposition ruthlessly once they gain power.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:55 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:21 pm
Mort Walker wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:10 pm


Agriculture production in MP has boomed and done well in CG, so IMHO that isn’t a factor. We need to see district voting results the states.
Doesn't matter how much it has boomed, it is not keeping up pace with the rest of the economy. It never will. That is the reality of agriculture every where in the world.
Actually, this proves the established notion that (in India) Vikas is a double-edged sword.

Crops fail due to bad or non-existent irrigation, you blame government and expect a bail out. You get good irrigation infrastructure, productivity improves and there is a market glut, bringing down prices. You blame government and expect a bail out. The only way I am happy is if the government goes short term, borrows money from the future and gives me a higher MSP and waives loans. Who cares if Gadkari could use that money to build roads. Roads? Where we're going, there are NO roads :( :( :( .

I have to hand it to the Congoons for running an EXCELLENT election campaign. No Bishop, Mullah or Urban Naxal got caught saying the wrong thing but surely they had their hand in every state while the Supreme Leader was exuding Hindu-ness like a maniac. He just could NOT be called out on it.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by v_raman » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:04 pm

I have had this theory in my mind for some time now. We will see NDA for one term and UPA for 2-3 terms. This cycle will repeat for a very long time. India will be a large economy with good infrastructure by end of the century. That is if all natural factors like global warming dont create havoc.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:19 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:21 pm
Mort Walker wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 3:10 pm


Agriculture production in MP has boomed and done well in CG, so IMHO that isn’t a factor. We need to see district voting results the states.
Doesn't matter how much it has boomed, it is not keeping up pace with the rest of the economy. It never will. That is the reality of agriculture every where in the world.
It is heavily subsidized in all countries, that is the only way they can survive. Especially the meat industry.

In India there needs to be more manufacturing and more service sector jobs. However, the election is not about the economy alone, at least not the one we just witnessed. There are many more factors, foremost being human tendency to be fickle and always look for 'what is in it for me'. Then there is the lethargy and complacency - I bet CG may have been lost due to this, everyone thought it was in the bag and nobody went out and voted. Details will emerge.

In the end, there is need for deep introspection within the leadership and the ranks of the BJP. Clearly something different needs to be done.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by crams » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:30 pm

I am willing to buy the most plausible theory that farmers and other low-skilled workers did BJP in. But as SSundar pointed out, the interesting thing is that govt can only do so much. In this sense, ruling govt will always take the flak. So the key economic conundrums BJP needs to address very quickly:

1. Development fruits are not going to be realized by everyone, how best to assuage those left behind so opposition cannot spin a narrative that all development efforts failed.

2. Despite best effort of ModiJi, Indian economy is not going to work for all given the 70+ years of rot. How best can this message be delivered, and is the message any good for this suffering economic pain?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:40 pm

Farmers will soon realize that the Congoons are no better, worse because of their tendency to squeeze everything for profit. I am surprised that they don't see how much the infrastructure has improved under BJP - neem coated urea, electricity and water supply, easy farm to market options etc.

Folks, on the EC website, what is very interesting is that in RJ, Cong vote share is shown as only 0.5% higher than BJP and in MP, BJP has a slight edge so far. What is shocking is CG with a massive swing in favor of the INC.

So mostly a close contest although big upset in CG.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by shravanp » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:46 pm

Its because all positives developments such as low inflation, good infrastructure etc make people take it for granted. That does not drive them to vote. Make them starve and punish them a little, that does make them drive to voting booth. I hope Congoons do that, so that things would be ripe by May 2019. It's still very depressing to see BJP lose CG by heavy margin. How much Ajit Jogi's split may have helped Cong?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Tue Dec 11, 2018 4:54 pm

Is MP over? What percentage of votes have been counted?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:08 pm

In MP, INC leads by 3 seats but overall vote share is about the same, with a slight edge to the BJP. They are both leading in 44 seats each at present. Does not look very good.

http://eciresults.nic.in/PartyWiseResult.htm

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:17 pm

They are basically taking all the freebies and then voting for Cong. Also RSS may not have mobilized substantially over differences on RJB.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by shravanp » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:18 pm

Bigger question is, what did MP/CG voters see in Congress to vote for it? Is Rahul Baba's stupidity finally appealing to masses?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sicanta » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:36 pm

What can bjp do to assuage the voters in next few months? Double down on freebies, or rapid actions to address demands of core voters, etc? They have given freebie to central gov employees in form of increased contribution in nps kitty. But seems like more will need to be done

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Singha » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:39 pm

was there some tribal land rights bill modification in CG that gave EJs a opening to go in and drum up support against the land grabbin govt ?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Singha » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:40 pm

was there some tribal land rights bill modification in CG that gave EJs a opening to go in and drum up support against the land grabbin govt ?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sicanta » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:44 pm

And it will be more difficult to implement any emergency plan at gov level given the bureaucracy will drag it's feet. Good ones will prefer not to take sides, others will actively sabotage

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by achoudhury » Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:45 pm

Few thoughts on today's results. First, Sabka saath sabka vikas is doomed to fail. Abrahmics are implacably opposed to BJP. Sooner BJP realizes this better for them.

Second, dont ignore core voter concerns like demographic changes, RJB , etc. This makes core voters uninspired , emotionaly cheated and some become NOTA warriors. Basically, return to unabashed hindutva. Bring in law for RJB. Promise stringent anti-conversion law, NRC and Population control law if voted back to power.

Third, dont appease SC/ST at the cost of UC/OBC rather accomodate SC/ST in different ways. Devise dole policies to target only core voters and junk sabka saath sabka vikaas. E.g. go for massive doles to Farmers, MC and SC/ST. Most farmers are hindus and they should benefit from that. Announce immediate substantial bonus on Kharif and Rabi. Dont let diesel/petrol prices rise. Announce subsidy for tirth yatras for all hindus. Give free gas cylinders to SC/ST. Forget abt fiscal discipline and rain doles. Development can wait. Slow disintegration of India can not.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by SSundar » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:10 pm

Supratik wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:17 pm
They are basically taking all the freebies and then voting for Cong. Also RSS may not have mobilized substantially over differences on RJB.
This might have been the core problem.

Numbers seem to indicate that the rural votes have accumulated for BJP. So, Modi's focus on SSSV has helped, at least in getting the rural Hindus to back him. He probably isn't going to make a big dent in RoP/RoL rural votes but that may not be a concern. He can and should double down and spend more money on SSSV.

Urban votes have gone either to Congoons or to NOTA. If Twitter is to be believed, NOTA votes exceed the gap between BJP and Cong in many urban constituencies. This is where short term appeasement is needed. Tax concessions, etc. are needed here urgently. Jaitley must be reined in for a few months.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:21 pm

They have lost in both urban and rural areas.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Zynda » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:21 pm

What kind of a hold/grip Jetlee has on BJP top brass that he is kind of not replaceable?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sicanta » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:27 pm

Yeah, for a while, word was that piyush goyalwas more receptive to traders, etc concerns

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:46 pm

No it is not Jaitley. Basically there has been an increase of 30-35 million people who are now paying tax. If average size of family is 4-5 that means about 120-170 million people are affected. Plus traders and small business profit has taken a hit after GST. Earlier they were cheating on tax. These traders will mostly be BJP supporters. They are unhappy about it. The thing to do will be to reduce the IT and reduce the GST as much as possible. Fiscal deficit is going to take a hit but what will you do if you loose elections. Also increase MSP for farmers just before elections. This will cause food price inflation but after elections.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:48 pm

Also the poor have not changed their vote from Cong to BJP even after all freebies. So net vote of BJP has reduced. Target your core voters first.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Primus » Tue Dec 11, 2018 6:57 pm

My fear is that there is possibly not enough time to make drastic changes that will woo the NOTA people and the urban voter.

It may be a gamble, but an all out push for Hindu agendas may create the necessary spark, especially since that will bring out the true colors of RaGa and company. There is not that much to lose, IMHO.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 3 (Oct 2018 - )

Post by Sunny » Tue Dec 11, 2018 7:03 pm

Better this humiliating shock now than in 2019. At least there is still time to turn things around assuming Modi, Shah and co take the correct course of action. A lot can happen in a few months.

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