The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - Oct 2018)

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KL Dubey
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:35 pm

Probably should go in the Election thread as we get closer, but for now I'm posting in the Maha Poltu thread:
Dr Praveen Patil‏ @5Forty3
Saying this with utmost caution: BJP is slowly but surely taking runaway lead in Rajasthan and today's hugely successful @narendramodi rally in Jaipur may cement the party deep into the grassroots

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by fanne » Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:12 pm

Hope so, Rajasthan was the depressing news for 2019. If we win that, then only battle remaining is UP.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Sun Jul 08, 2018 4:17 pm

Yes. I think Shivraj and Raman will carry MP and CH without much issues. Nobody wants Digparajay or Ajit Jogi back in any shape or form.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:43 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:35 pm
Probably should go in the Election thread as we get closer, but for now I'm posting in the Maha Poltu thread:
Dr Praveen Patil‏ @5Forty3
Saying this with utmost caution: BJP is slowly but surely taking runaway lead in Rajasthan and today's hugely successful @narendramodi rally in Jaipur may cement the party deep into the grassroots
What's with this guy??

He said a lots of things about the karnataka elections too and nothing turned out correct and now he is tooting his horn about RAJ??

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:45 am

la.khan wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 2:36 pm
Ram temple construction in fully legal way may begin by year end: VHP
"It is expected that the Supreme Court will begin the hearing on Ram janambhoomi dispute on a day-to-day basis ...and if it happens, the final order may come by the September end," Kumar told PTI-Bhasha today.
So, SC has listed RJ @ Ayodhya case is listed for hearing on 13th July; hopefully, this will be heard on daily basis and the verdict will be out this year itself. One of the judges is CJI, Dipak Mishra.
On a related note, can carbon dating be performed on these disputed sites? Especially, Kashi & Mathura as the original structures are partially available & standing. That should settle the claims of us Dharmics.
Is it really visible??

No secular is able to see it nor any roper or roler.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by sanju » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:05 am

Chetak Saar, I was in Mathura last November. It is clearly visible.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by RajaRaja » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:36 am

chetak wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:43 am
KL Dubey wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:35 pm
Probably should go in the Election thread as we get closer, but for now I'm posting in the Maha Poltu thread:
Dr Praveen Patil‏ @5Forty3
Saying this with utmost caution: BJP is slowly but surely taking runaway lead in Rajasthan and today's hugely successful @narendramodi rally in Jaipur may cement the party deep into the grassroots
What's with this guy??

He said a lots of things about the karnataka elections too and nothing turned out correct and now he is tooting his horn about RAJ??
True. Because as of now Congress is leading by over 15% in opinion poll in both Rajasthan and MP. Chhattisgarh is dead heat but I think BJP has better chances, but who knows!

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by fanne » Mon Jul 09, 2018 2:56 am

chetak, what did he say about Karnataka election turned to be wrong? He gave BJP 91 (he was projecting 100 just a week before) seats and BJP got 106, Con 84 and it got 78 and JDS 28 projected and got 38. Voting % was more accurate (and frankly that's what good pollsters can predict). He has been very consistent it capturing the overall trend, more than anyone. It looks like spinster new avatar is here.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:32 am

He started off saying BJP would win hands down, then revised it to eventually the figures you quote. From the beginning I was saying it would be a non BJP coalition and I didn't have any model.

I don't believe he's a fake pollster like the paid media has, but his model doesn't seem to work very well. He should stick to the original methodology he used, actual ground walk to collect data, albeit slow and expensive.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by chetak » Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:47 am

JohnTitor wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:32 am
He started off saying BJP would win hands down, then revised it to eventually the figures you quote. From the beginning I was saying it would be a non BJP coalition and I didn't have any model.

I don't believe he's a fake pollster like the paid media has, but his model doesn't seem to work very well. He should stick to the original methodology he used, actual ground walk to collect data, albeit slow and expensive.
I think that he used some sort of ****ed up algorithim in KAR.

Basically he is one of the good guys but the SM adulation seems to have gone to his head.

He is a reliable guy and I would back him above all the others.

You are dead right when you say that he should stick to the original methodology. That worked best for him and also for us.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Suraj » Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:26 am

The original methodology is more expensive . I do not think he has the money to do it that way every time. He has solicited donations, and in the past especially around GE2014 I donated to enable his work too .

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:57 am

chetak wrote:He said a lots of things about the karnataka elections too and nothing turned out correct and now he is tooting his horn about RAJ??
fanne wrote:chetak, what did he say about Karnataka election turned to be wrong? He gave BJP 91 (he was projecting 100 just a week before) seats and BJP got 106, Con 84 and it got 78 and JDS 28 projected and got 38. Voting % was more accurate (and frankly that's what good pollsters can predict).
I don't think any pollster factored the idea of the 2nd loser joining hands with the 1st loser and then cobbling up an alliance.
la.khan wrote:So, SC has listed RJ @ Ayodhya case is listed for hearing on 13th July; hopefully, this will be heard on daily basis and the verdict will be out this year itself. One of the judges is CJI, Dipak Mishra.
This would be interesting. IIRC there was a remark from the judges that this case would be taken up as a civil/property dispute case. Religious angle would not be considered. My understanding is that this actually would also hit the peacefools badly. If the parties in the civil case (the Hindu organisations and Shia Wakf Board) can reach an amicable settlment other Muslim organisations will not be able to oppose the same citing religious reasons. They would be considered as parties who have no locus standi in this case.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Gus » Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:45 pm

money laundering, routing thru legit companies to hide source of income, depositing in coop banks to escape from demo, slush fund for political parties,

am i missing anything :rotfl:

jokes are flying that in memes ...I put only 1, somebody put a lot of eggs (0)..get it? :lol:

https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... s-5251452/
Raids by Income Tax officials at nearly 100 locations, including premises of Tamil Nadu Civil Supplies Corporation managing director M Sudha Devi and Christy Friedgram Industry, a supplier of eggs under the state’s Integrated Child Development Scheme (ICDS), continued for the fourth day Sunday. Sources in I-T department said they unearthed evidence of tax evasion, strategies to convert black money during demonetisation and huge bribes paid to different political parties.

According to an officer, the raids, focused in about 100 locations in Chennai and Namakkal, were based on tip-offs about major irregularities in Christy Friedgram Industry. The officer said owner of the private firm Kumarasamy has been picked up from Indore and brought to Tamil Nadu. “He is being questioned at a farmhouse near Namakkal,” the officer said. Christy Friedgram Industry, which Kumarasamy started in 1989, was a major supplier of eggs and other food items for ICDS scheme since the 1990s.

As the raids are still on, I-T officials refused to divulge value of assets seized. “There is evidence of huge tax evasion. Premises of Civil Supplies Corporation MD Devi was raided for information about transactions linking her and the firm. We cannot reveal more information about her role now. Her links with two ministers are also being probed,” official said.

The official said focus of the probe is an alleged transaction of Rs 245 crore carried out by the firm through a state cooperative bank during demonetisation. “They seem to have successfully converted the money. We have seized some 100 pen drives from one of the locations. They show payments made by the firm to leading political parties, including the Opposition,” the officer said.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:38 pm

JohnTitor wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 3:32 am
He started off saying BJP would win hands down, then revised it to eventually the figures you quote. From the beginning I was saying it would be a non BJP coalition and I didn't have any model.

I don't believe he's a fake pollster like the paid media has, but his model doesn't seem to work very well. He should stick to the original methodology he used, actual ground walk to collect data, albeit slow and expensive.
I don't think you understand his methodology. It is based upon real-time data that allows tracking of changes on a daily basis and in every individual constituency. So the fact that his results changed several times - and very quickly after voting day - is a very new capability that agencies doing exit polls do not have. Just after voting ended he reported that BJP may lose about 10 seats due to undervoting, based upon feeding his ground intelligence data into the model. Sure enough, it turned out the party lost those seats by just a few hundred/thousand votes.

In that context, your "prediction all along" was pretty much pure guesswork (basically 1 of 3 realistic possibilities).

The trends and other detailed data obtained carry a lot of valuable information for political parties. For example, it reveals that predictions made a month or even a week ahead of the election can vary from the actual result, and often for totally different reasons than expected.
Last edited by KL Dubey on Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:47 pm

chetak wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:43 am
KL Dubey wrote:
Sun Jul 08, 2018 3:35 pm
Probably should go in the Election thread as we get closer, but for now I'm posting in the Maha Poltu thread:
Dr Praveen Patil‏ @5Forty3
Saying this with utmost caution: BJP is slowly but surely taking runaway lead in Rajasthan and today's hugely successful @narendramodi rally in Jaipur may cement the party deep into the grassroots
What's with this guy??

He said a lots of things about the karnataka elections too and nothing turned out correct and now he is tooting his horn about RAJ??
I'd say it differently - he said lots of the things about the KA elections, and all of them were correct at the time he said them. That includes his final prediction of the result on voting day.

You may be only interested in "getting a prediction about the final election result" (which may not even be possible in dynamic contests like KA) - but getting a reliable picture of how trends are evolving in every constituency (or in general any geographical area) is a much more exciting capability that many would be interested in.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:34 pm

Haldiram wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 1:36 am
True. Because as of now Congress is leading by over 15% in opinion poll in both Rajasthan and MP. Chhattisgarh is dead heat but I think BJP has better chances, but who knows!
Even after several years of fake "hawa" being generated in favor of Congis via dubious opinion polls, it is a pity that people still give credence to these "windbags".

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by fanne » Mon Jul 09, 2018 6:39 pm

His MAPI is good. That no one else has done it so far (I mean in the whole world), means that he could have lot of scope for errors - majorly from modelling point of view. As he does quite a number of them, he can start predicting more accurately. Someone actually went and matched his final day constituency wise prediction with actual results, it showed many misses, but they averaged out. The model needs to mature. But his idea is novel and the data that he collects while doing this, invaluable

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Suraj » Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:32 am

I find comments about PP's results to be badly argued. *What* did he fail at ? Estimating vote share ? Vote to seat conversion ? His earlier views in an election changing as the polls went on ?

So far, in every election, he's done pretty well on the vote share front. Vote to seat conversion is a hard problem when the number of real contenders exceeds two. Those complaining one or more of his predictions at some point didn't come to pass, are primarily seeking astrological relief . In psephology, there's no certainty. The situation on the ground changes dynamically.

If you want to evaluate PP, please be more rigorous. Does he get vote shares well ? In most cases, yes. Seat shares ? Depending on whether it's 2, 3 or 4 way fight, he does again. There's no point in holding him to some claim made at some point of time. He's simply stating what his data shows him at that point of time. Does he make up conclusions that contradict his data ?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by RajaRaja » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:13 am

I am somewhat skeptical of robustness of this MAPi method and tend to agree with those who find it inconsistent. This was reflected in PP's tweet in run up to the election day and after it. Also if we are to believe his claim of employing 480 people on ground for data collection then I don't think the method is cheap either. MAPi can also produce super spectacular failures like the 2015 Delhi election forecast of BJP winning majority of 40 seats. Do recall that BJP won 3 to AAP's 67.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by suryag » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:31 am

PP's MAPI was predicting about ~120 seats and if you see quite a lot of seats were lost in less than 5K margin(quite a few in sub 1000 margin) and in all fairness he had varying degrees of certainty represented in colours(blue/light blue to INC, orange and light orange for Bhajpa and green for high definition)and the light orange ones(the strong orange ones made it clean) were the ones that tilted the scales.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by crams » Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:33 am

ChetakJi, PP was quite close in his prediction in the end. Of course, he did predict a landslide for BJP after ModiJi's massive rallies but he tempered that closer to the election with some CYA (cover your ass) conservative tweets. But in general, I thought most opinion polls, as also exit polls in Karnataka were not way off the mark. In fact, the poll of polls gave BJP 104 and thats exactly what they ended up with.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Tue Jul 10, 2018 5:31 am

suryag wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:31 am
PP's MAPI was predicting about ~120 seats and if you see quite a lot of seats were lost in less than 5K margin(quite a few in sub 1000 margin) and in all fairness he had varying degrees of certainty represented in colours(blue/light blue to INC, orange and light orange for Bhajpa and green for high definition)and the light orange ones(the strong orange ones made it clean) were the ones that tilted the scales.
He was predicting a BJP sweep until the election date. He reduced his numbers on election date. So his final numbers are roughly in tune with the results. Not sure what happened on election day but I think he blamed the cadre for not mobilising the voters. I will give him the benefit of doubt on this one.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by JohnTitor » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:41 am

KL Dubey wrote:
Mon Jul 09, 2018 5:38 pm
I don't think you understand his methodology. It is based upon real-time data that allows tracking of changes on a daily basis and in every individual constituency. So the fact that his results changed several times - and very quickly after voting day - is a very new capability that agencies doing exit polls do not have. Just after voting ended he reported that BJP may lose about 10 seats due to undervoting, based upon feeding his ground intelligence data into the model. Sure enough, it turned out the party lost those seats by just a few hundred/thousand votes.

In that context, your "prediction all along" was pretty much pure guesswork (basically 1 of 3 realistic possibilities).

The trends and other detailed data obtained carry a lot of valuable information for political parties. For example, it reveals that predictions made a month or even a week ahead of the election can vary from the actual result, and often for totally different reasons than expected.
You're right, I don't understand his modelling technique.

I do, however, understand modelling in banking & finance. If his "model" as you say is real time data, then it isn't a prediction model but a dashboard showing the latest score. Again, something widely used in banking to measure portfolio performance. A model should predict in advance what the likelihood of an outcome is. Whether that outcome be in seat share or default rates. The model is constantly evaluated by comparing it to actual values.

Sure based on whatever data he collected at the time, his "prediction" was correct I suppose. But claiming that this methodology is a model to predict the outcome would be incorrect. A more exaggerated version of this is the seat count shown on TV on counting day, constantly changing based on the latest information - clearly not a "model" though.

I don't disagree that psephology is difficult, however, everyone's evaluated with the same yardstick. Everyone predicts vote shares and seat shares. No one thinks it's astrology. If you change your estimations as things change on the ground, then clearly, by definition your model didn't account for whatever caused the variation.

Again, to reiterate, I am not of the belief that he is a hack. Just that he needs to work on his models a lot more. I appreciate that his previous methodology based on field work is expensive and time-consuming, but fact remains that it had a better predictive capability.

My "prediction" was guesswork in that I didn't use any scientific techniques and based it solely on "surveys" of people across the state where I traveled. I make no qualms about it.

PS - just wanted to address the last point you made. The shift in votes due to various reasons is expected but should be quantifiable - the fence sitters. Most people will vote based on whatever reason they have and that is unlikely to change. For instance, if there were allegations that BJP was involved in a scam on or near election day, I wouldn't change my vote. But there are a percentage of people who might, that's essentially the error rate/variance.

My last on this as I am a supporter of PP and have donated in the past. I wish him well as I see him as one of the very few trying to give everyone a true picture.
Last edited by JohnTitor on Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:59 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:47 am

National politics
1.Chidambaram, son protected from arrest till Aug 7. The way this has been going it is better to report "Chidambaram, son protected from arrest for inifnite years".
2.Kisan Sabha to raise Rs 5 crore Struggle Fund. There is a need to build struggles. "This is the first time we are doing this," Kisan Sabha Joint Secretary Vijoo Krishnan told DH. He seems to be a new face among the lot. Said to be associated with JNU and the commies seems to be relying on this uber-commie. If I get the name right he is a KL based comrade, but has been out of local politics all this while.

And at Karnataka
1.H C Mahadevappa likely to join BJP. Former minister and Congress leader H C Mahadevappa, who was once described as the lieutenant of former chief minister Siddaramaiah, is all set to come a full circle in politics as he is expected to join the BJP soon.
2.BSY to continue 2-pronged combat against govt.There is a view in the party that with Yeddyurppa leading the pack in the Assembly, BJP will be able to act as an effective Opposition in the House.

And a bit of "secular" news from Kerala and else where.
1.Sexual abuse case against Bishop: Nun's brother alleges attempt to sabotage case.
2.Attack on soldier’s house in Kollam; 5 SDPI workers arrested in Kannur. "Seculars" first show-cased this case as that one of cow vigilantism (by the soldier & friend) :roll:.
3. Serious Fraud Investigation Office opens probe into Protestant church body after complaints of discrepancies . The church/sect here is the Church of South India - CSI.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Aditya_V » Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:11 am

Sachin wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:47 am
National politics
1.
A
2.Attack on soldier’s house in Kollam; 5 SDPI workers arrested in Kannur. "Seculars" first show-cased this case as that one of cow vigilantism (by the soldier & friend) :roll:.
So an organisation which is politically aligned with INC, is now attacking Indian Army soldiers houses, pulling the hair of the soldiers mother and throwing her out of her own home whent he menfolk are away? Wow

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