The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - Oct 2018)

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abhijit
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by abhijit » Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:18 pm

only hope is get RJB verdict by hook or crook... whichever way.

Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:19 pm

There is still time to polarize in addition to vikas.

shravanp
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by shravanp » Fri Jun 01, 2018 6:04 pm

I think there's lack of awareness for bypolls in general, as compared to LS polls. For LS19, there will be huge cadre mobilization. Often we RWingers think, well why the hell didn't they mobilize cadre for 'Kariana bypolls' :D

KL Dubey
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Fri Jun 01, 2018 7:45 pm

abhijit wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 5:17 pm
It wil go fine for next 5 years. Their resolve is very clear. Their first priority is survival at any cost. So they will dust bjp and once that is done cracks might surface. Congress has led them by doing sacrifice, other parties will follow at least for next 5 year.
In my opinion there is no sure antidote for this except for the goremint to perform head and shoulders better than UPA-I and II. And it is doing so. MTB has only been tested in bypolls and local elections, in which national concerns don't take precedence in the mind of the electorate.

MTB has some potentially fatal flaws in LS 2019:

- They are turning this into a "Modi vs MTB" all-out contest. So all that Modi has to do is go out and ask people to vote in very simple terms: "Do you want me in the PM's job or some joker pulled from the collective wazoo of 20 parties?" That is an easy question for even the most simple voter to answer one way or the other - only possible exception is Rahul Mehta who only believes in "law draft" wallahs. In others words, it turns the election into a one-point referendum. And Modi is well positioned to win it hands down.

- It is all well for the MTB leaders to stand for a photo and raise each others' hands, but seat-sharing arrangements are another game altogether. The rank and file cadre may not take this too well at all. They will be half-hearted at best.

- At the voter level also, these parties may not have easily transferable vote banks other than the "minorities".

- It is not as if BJP is sitting idle. We only see the big rallies on Youtube, but the ground campaign is very important and BJP-RSS has a huge advantage with its organizational strength. They will hammer the message that the voter is being taken for a fool by MTB just to ensure their own survival. The MTB is not for bringing development, it's one and only purpose is to target Modi and try to bring him down.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:46 pm

Sachin wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 2:35 pm
hanumadu wrote:
Fri Jun 01, 2018 1:56 pm
This is the real reason congress is giving CM ship to HDK. 2019 is the bigger prize. It will probably ditch him after 2019 which is just as well as HDK can rake in some moolah meanwhile.
The BJP would also get a chance to start getting the Lingayath community (and its leaders) to its side by this time? There has been heavy polarisation towards the BJP in Northern & Coastal Karnataka.
Lingayats mostly voted for BJP In the state elections. The gain will be marginal.
Are there other groups/castes that are mutually exclusive in a JD(S) - congress combine? Now that Siddaramaiah is not a CM nor will he be a PM, will Kuruba's still vote for Congress?

BJP got 37% of the votes in assembly. It has to make up 13% on Modi factor and slightly different caste alignments from the state elections.

KL Dubey
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:38 am

All this talk of caste calculus is useless if the LS 2019 election becomes a referendum on NaMo (which it will most likely be).

More than 70% of Indians cutting across caste and even religion want NaMo again as the PM in 2019. So there will be more than 50% vote share for NaMo. The election will be about him, and the BJP and NDA will reap the benefits.

You will see, in every rally he will tell the electorate: "This is not just an election for your local MP but for election of the central goremint. Who do you think you want to install there ?"

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:51 am

^^It's not that simple. Vajpayee was the preferred PM, but what happened? Modi should have affected sufficient number of people significantly to vote for him over local and other considerations. Modi factor will make a difference, but its hard to predict its magnitude.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:03 am

hanumadu wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:51 am
^^It's not that simple. Vajpayee was the preferred PM, but what happened? Modi should have affected sufficient number of people significantly to vote for him over local and other considerations. Modi factor will make a difference, but its hard to predict its magnitude.
+1. In fact some times it worries me that lots of people just dump every thing on the head of Na.Mo and A.Shah. They are to do all the hard work. And honestly when I hear folks like M/s Y & S Sinha, A. Shourie etc; I am dead sure that there are enough and more "Jai chands" within BJP itself who would like to see Na.Mo bite the dust, just so that that would boost their egos.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Aditya_V » Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:15 am

Sachin wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 6:03 am
hanumadu wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:51 am
^^It's not that simple. Vajpayee was the preferred PM, but what happened? Modi should have affected sufficient number of people significantly to vote for him over local and other considerations. Modi factor will make a difference, but its hard to predict its magnitude.
+1. In fact some times it worries me that lots of people just dump every thing on the head of Na.Mo and A.Shah. They are to do all the hard work. And honestly when I hear folks like M/s Y & S Sinha, A. Shourie etc; I am dead sure that there are enough and more "Jai chands" within BJP itself who would like to see Na.Mo bite the dust, just so that that would boost their egos.
It is not ego, the C-system as such is an international organisation to keep India down, they have deep tentacles. If we need to progress we will need to get rid of the termintes within this nation. There are no easy solutions but long term solutions.

Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Sat Jun 02, 2018 10:15 am

Two BJP workers have been hanged in WB in the last week. Crooked lady needs to be defeated.

Indrad
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Indrad » Sat Jun 02, 2018 11:10 am

Image
vinash kaale viprit buddhi

KL Dubey
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by KL Dubey » Sat Jun 02, 2018 12:57 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:51 am
^^It's not that simple. Vajpayee was the preferred PM, but what happened? Modi should have affected sufficient number of people significantly to vote for him over local and other considerations. Modi factor will make a difference, but its hard to predict its magnitude.
1) Vajpayee is not Modi. There is a world of difference. Modi and Shah are much more the go-getters than Atalji. Their personalities and outlook is totally different.

2) If it is hard to predict, then don't predict and don't waste time in discussions. Wait till the election is over. If you are contributing to the NDA effort, all the better.

Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:33 pm

There is still one year left. Don't dhoti shiver. If you want this govt back do your bit whatever it is. If you are in India get involved in the campaign even if it is in your mohalla. If abroad use social media to spread the message. Get the Modi vote out on polling day.

Dumal
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Dumal » Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:39 pm

Since Lilo-ji's (I want to say, epic) take-down 10 days back of those clamoring 24x7 for the "Core" agenda, it seemed like much of that junk stopped appearing here. But there are still some who are intent on cleverly masquerading as BJP supporters but constantly whining about how BJP has lost the way and how all is lost for 2019, etc., and obviously parroting lines that support some hidden agenda. I wonder if it is to constantly lay doubts and make people diffident about the prospects for BJP going forward.

P.S Could we have a sticky topic or a collection of good posts to save and keep track?

fanne
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by fanne » Sat Jun 02, 2018 1:59 pm

they are paid CA agents. Few of them are not even disguised.

Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:00 pm

No it is anxiety for most people except a few tolls. 2019 is going to be challenging as no non-Congress govt so far has retained power on this scale.

Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:33 pm

BJP has come a close second in tribal dominated Jhargram and Purulia districts of WB in the panchayat elections. The current frenzy of killing BJP workers by TMC is to create an atmosphere of fear in this district. Jahadidi is worried about of a consolidation in favour of BJP. Most likely the strategy of murdering opponents taken from the CPIM book is going to backfire.

hanumadu
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by hanumadu » Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:40 pm

KL Dubey wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 12:57 pm
hanumadu wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:51 am
^^It's not that simple. Vajpayee was the preferred PM, but what happened? Modi should have affected sufficient number of people significantly to vote for him over local and other considerations. Modi factor will make a difference, but its hard to predict its magnitude.
1) Vajpayee is not Modi. There is a world of difference. Modi and Shah are much more the go-getters than Atalji. Their personalities and outlook is totally different.

2) If it is hard to predict, then don't predict and don't waste time in discussions. Wait till the election is over. If you are contributing to the NDA effort, all the better.
1. Vajpayee is not Modi, but there was no Mahagatbandan either
2. Let me worry about what I do with my time. Why don't you worry about yours?

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by srikumar » Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:46 pm

post_id=11911 wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:00 pm
No it is anxiety for most people except a few tolls. 2019 is going to be challenging as no non-Congress govt so far has retained power on this scale.
I agree. I would caution people against accusing posters of being agents etc. Not constructive.

Lilo's post was very constructive in that he did some research rebutting the posts, which, I hope was disseminated on twitter and other SM places. I would hope the angst here felt against 'core' issue posters would translate to similar kind of positive activity.

In a video posted by KL Dubey (1.5 months ago) where NaMo addressed (over telefoon ) some questions by karyakartas ...Modi clearly said that stuff on SM which are untruths have to be countered, and need to be challenged explicitly. He was very firm about that. I felt bad for him when I heard him say that. It showed the limitations that he is facing. NaMo cannot do everything at all levels and this was him admitting it and asking the people to help him with it. He is relying on the aam janata (who support him) do some stuff like this....the street-level (actual street or in the streets of social media). I am not sanguine about 2019- there is a battle that is looming (all know that) and he's asked for help.

Un-related to the above:
Kairana result surprised me. Kairana was where there were riots (due eve teasing of girls followed by some killings?) and then Hindu families left due to fear of their lives with threats to property, lives .....just 2 years ago in 2016....as per statement from Hukum Singh himself... And now this happens.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Sachin » Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:53 pm

srikumar wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:46 pm
I agree. I would caution people against accusing posters of being agents etc. Not constructive.
+1. Yes there could be a few folks with an agenda and I guess their identities are already known. But tagging any one who doubts a BJP victory as an "agent" is only going to make the forum an echo chamber.
In a video posted by KL Dubey (1.5 months ago) where NaMo addressed (over telefoon ) some questions by karyakartas ...Modi clearly said that stuff on SM which are untruths have to be countered, and challenged explicitly. He was very firm about that. I felt bad for him when I heard him say that.
Govt plans to hire crack team to track social media, boost India’s image ; is what was reported 3 days back. Which means GoI (not BJP as a party) has recognized the threat of unrestricted use of social media. All said and done it was for all BJP sympathisers to ask what your party/country can do to you, but to ask what you can do your for country/party. The BJP & RSS are not babes in the woods and know how much of support would be there for them from MSM, peacefools etc. So they would have a plan ready for that as well.

srikumar
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by srikumar » Sat Jun 02, 2018 3:02 pm

^^Thanks for your response on the L&M thread on the Kerala situation.
SM could well make the difference between victory and defeat.....just 1% vote swing in critical areas will make the different between running the govt and sitting in opposition with 48% of the MPs (or MLAs as in Karnataka). BJP needs to have a plan for SM too, but I get the impression that it may not be sufficient with just the committed party workers (and RSS) doing the heavy lifting. One thing is clear- INC knows this is their last fight. They'll come with everything they got. In fact, one poster here (Chandragupta?) posted 3 months ago that the country will be set on fire if need be....and things are pointing to that direction... Sterlite being the latest example. I think it will get worse in their frantic (And last-ditch) effort to create divisions.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Vikas » Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:30 pm

/Thinking like a Non-BJP Voter/

BGR posters either over analyze events or just brush them as if nothing has happened.
One good thing about Bypoll loss is that Anti-BJP parties know their road map for next round of elections. They can't survive if they fight separately and together they can win (assuming it is not direct congress v/s BJP fight, then it is KO for congress). Bihar and KA have shown us how to fight BJP and defeat it. There has to be tinge of Hindutva and silence on Muslim related issues during the campaign. It is as if Muslims don't exists in the electoral arena. Moreover it woul dbe better to split and dissect Hindu consolidation with caste and community level consolidation and with right amount of minority + committed cadre vote, It is Home run.
Now that BJP is ruling in most of the states and center and voter memory is extremely short term, onus will be on BJP to defend its Govts and anti-incumbency.
Add to the mix that SS and JDU may pull out of NDA by 2019 like CBN did before and BJD did way before that, there is a hope that UPA alliance can do extremely well in MH and BH.
If Mamta, Naveen, KCR and CBN/Jagan can hold the fort, we may be looking at UPA govt led by Rahul Gandhi at the center.
Modi ji may be extremely popular but if Inflation, Gas prices and general discontent fans, we may be able to send him packing back to Gujarat.

/Stop thinking/

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Suraj » Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:31 pm

hanumadu wrote:
Sat Jun 02, 2018 2:51 am
^^It's not that simple. Vajpayee was the preferred PM, but what happened? Modi should have affected sufficient number of people significantly to vote for him over local and other considerations. Modi factor will make a difference, but its hard to predict its magnitude.
Vajpayee wasn't the preferred PM in 2004. He was a popular PM, but nowhere close to Modi's level of charisma. And in comparison the Gandhi family was a far more viable name brand back then than it was today, where SG is mostly margdarshak mandalee and RG is a publicly certified imbecile. Further, INC commanded almost half the country's states and had the money and influence then that it's struggling to muster today. 2019 is a straight 'break the unified BJP vote somehow, then figure it out as we go along' play by the opposition.

It was early days for me in the econ thread in BRF during 2004-05. But I remember the circumstances rather well. The economic gains of that era had only begun to happen when those elections happened. Before that were several years of drought and efforts to build the early portions of what became the Golden Quadrilateral. In fact, I used to go take pics of those roads and post them online (Singha will remember - he did the same, and sent me some to host on my old page).

But that election was early to reap any fruit of the economic gains. UPA-1 got to reap most of it. This time around, a lot the pain happened within the first half of the administration and the second half is a development of clarity in the economic view forward. The economic situation today is like the momentum building in early UPA-1 . Fast forward one year further, and things will accelerate even more. Add some Hindu issues progress, and they'll have a lot to go to the voters with in 2019 - FAR more so than Vajpayee did in that ultimately ill fated effort to advance polls then.

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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Rajesh_MR » Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:10 pm

Wasn’t Vajpayee mostly gone out of action by 2004 election. Don’t remember him campaigning

Supratik
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Re: The Great Indian Political Drama - 2 (Mar 2018 - )

Post by Supratik » Sat Jun 02, 2018 5:14 pm

Yes

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