Post
by Rudradev » Mon May 14, 2018 8:46 pm
The bigger picture however may not be that bad.
What we've seen in Gujarat and then Karnataka is that, at least in the bigger states, there is an anti-anti-incumbency trend in effect for the time being. Smaller states don't always follow the trend: we saw it hold up in Nagaland but not Tripura. Meghalaya was a toss-up because while the ruling alliance changed from UPA to NDA, one of the coalition partners (UDP) from the incumbent government retained the enthusiasm of voters despite switching allegiances to a different national coalition.
Tripura might well prove to be the exception that proves the rule (the Left was so horrible that it had to go, but few incumbents are at that threshold of unpopularity).
Around 2013 the national public mood was all about "change". There was a sentiment of despair in the country regarding frequent inflationary shocks, massive distrust in institutions (scam after scam reported), large-scale socio-cultural shakeups (like Nirbhaya, Baba Ramdev, Anna Hazare's campaign etc.) Modi and Kejriwal both tried to ride in on the popular wave demanding change. Only Modi succeeded.
The momentum of the "change" wave (which Modi made his own) continued, I would say, up to the UP election. Since then it has dissipated as new ground realities have set in and new public expectations have been established based upon them.
For the last year, we have a situation where the economy is doing better but more importantly, stabilizing. Jobs are being created and filled. Many yojanas have made life at least somewhat better for people on the micro-level. Initiatives like demonetization, GST, Aadhaar have been widely criticized, even resented, but on the whole they seem to have provided people with a sense that order is being imposed on previous chaos where jungly goonda-raj was the law of the land, when only the rich and powerful found success, everything was corrupt, and no institution could be trusted.
The perception is that some kind of "system" is now being brought into effect whereby a set of rules (however onerous) is applied to all evenly. Rules are important for an aspirational population... they are the guidelines according to which success and prosperity can be fairly achieved. A government that enforces them justly and consistently is what people currently want.
Best of all for Bhajpa: the face of "change" is now Rahul Gandhi (who, despite receiving more chances than any politician in Indian history, has proven incapable of changing at all). The Congress Raj was the exact opposite of rules-based governance. Rules were pulled out of the @ss of the governing family to benefit or disadvantage select individuals or groups in an arbitrary fashion. The rich and powerful never had to follow any rules that inconvenienced them, as long as they stayed on the family's good side. The middle classes were constantly on the lookout for the next "short-cut" or "quick-buck" scheme, because of course the steady long-haul of hard work and dedication would never get you anywhere in a corrupt system. The poor were given freebies and sops at election time, and left to fester in their squalor at all other times. Society was denied even the self-respect of a clean public environment with sanitation, garbage collection and public toilets.
From the ground up, from Swacchh Bharat onwards, EVERY program launched by Modi has been designed specifically to counter the mass realities of Congress raj, one by one, at every level.
What this all means is that (I believe) the purely emotional component of voting, the public political sentiment, has shifted from wanting "change" to wanting "stability" or "consistency". Things may not be supremely great at the national OR state level, people may still want more things from their government (like we on BGR want a more level playing field for Hindus, etc.) but in general they are not unbearably bad. Compared to 2013, most people have decided they can live with the way things are, and maybe even prosper with the way things are. At least there is reason for the common man to hope that by hard work and determination you can have a fair shot at success, without some neta's relative stepping on your face to climb ahead of you.
So for now it's better to try and make a go of it to improve your life, and the lives of your family, rather than demanding more "change" and then having to adjust to a completely new set of ground rules which may or may not be fair. (With Rahul Gandhi as PM, there is no question how "fair" they will be).
Unfortunately this drift towards anti-anti-incumbency benefits whoever is in power at any level... municipality, state, center. Fortunately it has come at a point when the Congis have only three states to preserve, and Bhajpa has many of the rest. Barring any terrible mishap that has the potential to substantially alter public perception, I think anti-anti-incumbency will set the tone for the 2019 GE as well.
.
. Felt it strange that in West Bengal EVMs were not used at all.
