China - News & Discussion

News and Discussions about politics, current affairs, international relations, economy, elections, state level politics etc.
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chetak
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Re: China - News & Discussion

Post by chetak » Thu Nov 08, 2018 7:12 pm

Well, if true, this came much sooner than I thought it would.


Caixin Global Verified account @caixin

China think tank head Li Yang says nation's economy may be entering a long-term "downward spiral"

Economy at Risk of Long-Term ‘Downward Spiral,’ State Researcher Says
The head of an influential state-backed think tank has forecast that China’s economic expansion may be entering a long-term “downward spiral” as all three engines of growth — investment, exports and consumption — slow down.

The comments by Li Yang, head of the National Institution for Finance & Development (NIFD) and the former deputy head of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, come against the backdrop of increasing concern among the country’s top policymakers about the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy and the impact of the trade war with the U.S. Gross domestic product (GDP), a measure of all goods and services produced in an economy, rose by 6.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, the lowest in almost a decade.

“GDP (growth) is slowing, investment (growth) is slowing, export (growth) is slowing and consumption (growth) is slowing” and the growth rates are slowing at the same pace or faster than GDP growth, Li said in a speech at the Chinese Institutional Investors Summit on Saturday in Beijing.

“There’s a lot of musing about what’s really going on with the numbers, but in short, we need to pay extremely close attention because it might mean that the economy is in a kind of downward spiral,” Li said. “The recent meeting between the central authorities and private enterprises also suggests that the situation (of the private sector) is quite serious.”

President Xi Jinping held a seminar with private entrepreneurs on Thursday in Beijing to assure them of the government’s and the Communist Party’s support for the private sector as the entrepreneurs struggle amid a cooling economy and an unfavorable financing environment. The event followed a meeting of the Politburo, a committee of the Party’s top 25 officials chaired by Xi, which also emphasized support for the private sector.

Employment worries

In addition to his academic roles, Li is a delegate to the National People’s Congress — the country’s legislature — and a member of its financial and economic committee. He also advises a number of provincial and municipal governments, according to his biography on the NIFD website.

Li’s speech touched on several economic challenges facing China, including job creation; monetary policy and the changing dynamics of credit creation; the relationship between the country’s financial system and the real economy; and the potential impact of the trade war between China and the U.S. and its geopolitical significance.

Although government data show that the target for job creation this year was met ahead of schedule in October, evidence is starting to emerge that the employment situation could become more challenging in 2019 or 2020, compounded by the U.S.-China trade friction, Li said.

“As the economy cools, it’s possible new job creation will soften, companies who are in difficulty will cut wages, the growth rate of salaries will decline, and we will see an absolute fall in pay,” Li said. “We may even see people lose their jobs. This is the impact of Sino-U.S. trade friction passing through into the labor market.”

Li also highlighted weak credit creation by financial institutions and how the credit impulse, which is the change in new lending by banks as a percentage of GDP, has weakened significantly. Although the People’s Bank of China can influence the money supply and can add more money to the financial system by cutting banks’ reserve requirement ratio, for example, financial institutions also influence money supply by increasing their lending.

But the process of money creation has stalled or contracted because demand for loans from companies is insufficient and profitable investment opportunities are limited, Li said. This has become a prominent problem and a sign of economic contraction, he said.

Although the PBOC has adjusted the way it calculates total social financing (TSF) — the broadest measure of credit in the economy that includes bank loans, “shadow banking,” and bond and equity issuance — growth in TSF has lost steam and continues to slow, Li said, adding that the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences estimates the increase in the measure will be “even worse” next year, he said.

Economic aggression

Li also raised the alarm about the economic slowdown in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang provinces in the first half of 2018. These are China’s most developed regions, and they showed a slide in growth that was higher than the national average, he said.

Turning to the deterioration in relations between China and the U.S., Li said this is not a short-term problem that can be solved anytime soon. Washington’s China policy has undergone a fundamental change from one of engagement and negotiation to one of containment.

China’s call for its relationship with the U.S. to be based on a new model of great power relations, which in effect signals China does not acknowledge the U.S. as the world’s No. 1 superpower, somehow crossed a red line with Washington, he said. The U.S.’s aim is now to stifle China’s ability to develop its technological strength, and this is a form of economic aggression, Li said.

China should not give in to the U.S., and while it should not go on the attack, neither should it be afraid of a fight, Li said. Beijing should stick to its position but also seek to reduce friction by offering reasonable solutions.

Li also called for the government to take a market-oriented approach to managing the economy, such as abandoning the policy of handing out massive subsidies to encourage innovation, and to expand reforms.

“There are important reforms such as property rights, especially the issue of non-state ownership, intellectual property rights,” as well as accelerating fiscal reform, Li said.

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Re: China - News & Discussion

Post by vishvak » Wed Dec 26, 2018 9:49 am

X-posting from earlier
quote=vishvak post_id=15306 time=1543252115 user_id=545]
Chinese checkers:
Some details on BRI.
Read it all.

China is building local courts for 'international' dispute resolution for BRI.

Also Chinese are using same mechanisms, prolly same people too. Meaning chances galore for corruption and pulling towards Chinese interests indirectly in other forums too, and showing off otherwise.

Not to mention putting BRI in Chinese constitution thereby increasing its pitch for support in some way or another.

The authors wonder in the second paragraph why not much is done to study certain aspects. Who else is going to do that otherwise?!
to influence the world — if not directly control it — by making the rules on which it functions. This normative determination to achieve a far greater objective has hardly been addressed when analysing China’s BRI and its impact.
[/quote

Don't let anyone talk big and slightly about how non-card-holding-members of other countries benefit due to Chinese loose monies and kind considerations.

And more importantly this is recent and ongoing thing.

vishvak
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Re: China - News & Discussion

Post by vishvak » Wed Dec 26, 2018 10:10 am

Another report of Ecuador in debt due to Chinese dam that is built somewhere near volcano spewing ash.

Now cracks started appearing in the dam too. Wonder what were they thinking.

chetak
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Re: China - News & Discussion

Post by chetak » Tue Jan 08, 2019 7:16 am

India, Iran, Russia look for new trade corridor


India, Iran, Russia look for new trade corridor

7 Nov 2018

Image
India, Russia and Iran explore new route

India, Russia and Iran are meeting next month to work out the details of a massive project to open a new sea-land transport corridor that would be a cheaper and shorter alternative to shipping oil and other goods through the Suez Canal.

According to RT, the North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), the name for the new transit route, will connect India to Russia and Europe via a combination of sea routes and an overland passage through Iran, according to Iranian state-owned news outlet Press TV. The 7,200-kilometers long corridor will reduce the time and costs of shipping by up to 40%. Transport time between Mumbai and Moscow will fall to 20 days. The annual capacity of the transport artery is expected to reach 30 million tons.

Indian logistics companies presently need to route shipments through China, Europe or Iran to access Central Asian markets. Already, routing shipments through Iran is the least time-consuming option. But the INSTC will have the ancillary benefit of allowing Indian companies to forge a new trade route to Afghanistan without having to travel through Pakistan, as tensions over Kashmir are once again on the rise. The passage corridor through the Persian Gulf will mean billions of dollars in trade for Afghanistan, cutting its dependence on foreign logistics.

Already, India has committed $500 million for developing the Iranian port of Chabahar, which will be a crucial trans-shipment point for transitioning cargo from sea to land. What's more, the arrangement has the blessing of China, which could potentially incorporate the passage into its multi-trillion-dollar 'One Belt, One Road' initiative to build new trade routes connecting China to Europe, Asia and Africa.

Indian officials said they're hoping to start building out the infrastructure required for the route to function as swiftly as possible.

"All issues may be resolved in order to operationalize the (INSTC) route as early as possible," according to Indian Commerce Minister Suresh Prabhu, as quoted by the media.

The alliance of these four countries should unnerve the US. As it stands, the rise in bilateral trade denominated in rubles, yuan and rupees, while modest so far, is set to grow, with plans to eventually undermine the dollar's hegemonic grip on global trade settlement. And with US sanctions on Iran set to take effect on Nov. 4, the Iranian regime only stands to benefit by encouraging the blooming economic partnership between Russia and India, as Russia implements its plan to circumvent the dollar, and, by extension, Treasury Department sanctions.

Russia and India have recently announced that they had sealed a long-discussed $6 billion arms deal despite threats of economic sanctions from Washington.

Singha
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Re: China - News & Discussion

Post by Singha » Wed Jan 16, 2019 3:58 am

india - 1.6m, russia - 1.5m and iran - 1.4m(euro std gauge) seem to use different gauges of rails but nevertheless, all should be able to tranship std 20 and 40 feet containers.
with a journey across the caspian sea the logistics is complex. would have been better if iranian train could directly travel to russia via azerbaijan but the gauge is not compatible.

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Re: China - News & Discussion

Post by vishvak » Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:00 pm

Chinese military capabilities increasing..
Includes non war mission capabilities. Read it all.

chetak
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Re: China - News & Discussion

Post by chetak » Sat Jan 26, 2019 7:25 pm

china's internal dissension is gradually rising to become a real and present danger to Xi Jinping's very aggressive global vision and that may be one of the primary reasons that he chose to make himself singularly powerful.

He simply cannot put the genie back in the bottle without possibly causing harm to himself as well as his cause.



Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney

My op-ed: It's not just capital that’s fleeing China; rich Chinese choose to live overseas. In an informal vote of no confidence in the Chinese system, more than a third of surveyed millionaires in China said they were “currently considering” emigrating.
China's lonely rise: After decades of heady growth, Beijing is suddenly facing resistance at home and abroad

China's lonely rise: After decades of heady growth, Beijing is suddenly facing resistance at home and abroad

Xi Jinping's word may be law, but faced with difficult choices on China’s new challenges, he now finds himself under pressure



As the People’s Republic of China prepares to celebrate the 70th anniversary of its founding later this year, the limits of its Communist Party-led model are becoming apparent. And more than ever, the world’s longest-surviving and most-powerful autocracy faces difficult choices at home and abroad.

By China’s own statistics, its economy is registering its most sluggish growth in nearly three decades. The world’s second-largest economy grew by 6.6 per cent in 2018, the lowest rate since 1990, when the fallout from the massacre of as many as 10,000 people in a tank and machine-gun assault on pro-democracy demonstrators in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square a year earlier kept growth to a humble 3.9 per cent.

At a time when China appears to have entered a new era of uncertainty after more than a quarter century of phenomenal growth, it is perhaps fitting that this year marks the 30th anniversary of that massacre.

The uncertainty is evident in a new phenomenon – the flight of capital from a country that, between 1994 and 2014, amassed towering piles of foreign-exchange reserves by enjoying a surplus in its overall balance of payments.

But now, faced with an unstoppable trend of net capital outflows, President Xi Jinping’s government has tightened exchange controls and other capital restrictions to prop up the country’s fragile financial system and sagging currency. The regime has used tens of billions of dollars in recent months alone to bolster the yuan’s international value.

It is not just capital that’s fleeing China, as more and more Chinese choose to live overseas. In an informal vote of no confidence in the Chinese system, more than a third of surveyed millionaires in China said they were “currently considering” migrating to another country. An earlier report found that almost two-thirds of rich Chinese were either emigrating or have plans to do so.

Today, China’s mounting internal challenges are being compounded by new external factors. Chinese belligerence and propaganda, for instance, have spawned a growing image problem for the country internationally, which is apparent even in regions where China has invested heavily, from Africa to Southeast Asia.

More significantly, Beijing has come under international pressure on several fronts – from its trade, investment and lending policies to its human rights record, including its incarceration of more than a million Muslims from Xinjiang, a sprawling territory Mao Zedong annexed in 1949. Perhaps China’s free ride, which helped propel its rise, is coming to an end.

In modern-day “re-education” prisons, China is accused of forcing Uighurs and other Muslim groups to forsake Islamic practices and become secular citizens.

The Soviet Communist Party that ran gulags was consigned to the dustbin of history. But now the Chinese Communist Party has set up its own gulags that are more high-tech and indiscriminate and have Islam as their target. The network of concentration camps is designed to dismantle Muslim identities and change the outlook of entire communities – a grim mission of unparalleled scale.

Yet, even as international criticism has mounted, the West still seems reluctant to hold Beijing accountable for its harsh treatment of ethnic minorities, deciding against, for instance, introducing sanctions.

China, meanwhile, is confronting growing US-led pressure on the trade and geopolitical fronts, accentuating Beijing’s dilemmas and fuelling uncertainty at home. As long as the US-China trade war rages, flight of capital will remain a problem for Beijing, whose foreign-exchange reserves have shrunk by about $1 trillion from their peak of just over $4 trillion in mid-2014.

At a time when China’s imperial project, the Belt and Road Initiative, is running into resistance from a growing number of partner countries, Beijing is also confronting an international pushback against its telecommunications giant Huawei. In fact, the pushback has broadened from opposition to Huawei’s participation in next-generation 5G wireless networks to a broader effort in Europe, North America and Australia to restrict the use of Chinese technology because of concerns that it is being used for espionage.

The arrest of the Huawei founder’s daughter in Canada, at the behest of Washington, rattled China’s elites, making them angry but also fearful that any one of them could meet a similar fate while travelling to the West. With Meng Wanzhou’s detention, the US signalled that it has more powerful non-tariff weapons than China, which has long used such tools to punish countries as diverse as Japan, Mongolia, South Korea and the Philippines.

Ms Meng was held for an alleged violation of America’s Iran-related sanctions, but even Western onlookers saw her arrest as an example of US high-handedness. Instead of galvanising support against the American move, China responded in typical fashion that, as an American analyst put it, is the “mark of a thuggish state” – by jailing two Canadians.

Indeed, it is Beijing’s open disregard for international rules that explains why it can count on few true strategic allies or reliable security partners. Contrast this with the strong network the US maintains, including close collaboration with many of China’s neighbours. Beijing has alienated almost every significant power in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

China’s lonely rise could become more pronounced with the newly restructured People’s Liberation Army becoming less of an army and more of a power projection force, the majority of whose troops now are not from the army but from the other services. Indeed, the PLA’s shift away from being a defensive force foreshadows a more aggressive Chinese military approach of the kind already witnessed in the South China Sea, where China has fundamentally changed the status quo in its favour.

The Dalai Lama recently said that, due to Chinese pressure, no Buddhist country, with the sole exception of the nominally Buddhist Japan, is now willing to grant him entry as the exiled leader of Tibetan Buddhism. However, whenever Chinese pressure forces smaller nations to cave in on any issue, it only fuels greater resentment against Beijing.

Against this backdrop, where is China heading? It has come a long way since the Tiananmen Massacre, with its citizens now more prosperous, mobile and digitally connected. Its economy, in purchasing power parity terms, is already the world’s largest.

However, its political system remains as repressive as ever, with Mr Xi centralising power in a way China has not seen since Mao. Under his leadership, the party has set out to systematically quash Muslim, Tibetan and Mongol identities, expand China’s frontiers far out into international waters, and turn the country into a digital totalitarian state.

Yet, one should not overlook what a difference less than a year has made. Few in China dared to criticize Mr Xi when he ended the decades-old, Party-led collective leadership system and abolished a two-term limit on the presidency –actions that theoretically allow him to rule for life.

But, in the new international environment in which China finds itself today, he is facing domestic criticism – however muted — for building a cult of personality around his one-man rule and for inviting an international pushback by overemphasising China’s strength and power.

Mr Xi’s word may be law but, faced with difficult choices on China’s new challenges, he now finds himself under pressure. His primary focus will probably remain ensuring stability at home. Without stability, neither he nor the Party can hope to survive in power.

To calm the economic turbulence, China’s central bank has substantially increased domestic credit to help boost consumption and investment at home. In the medium-term, the US-led tariff pressures are likely to accelerate China’s shift from low-end manufacturing to higher value-added industries like electronics, robotics and artificial intelligence.

The geopolitical pushback, for its part, could force Xi to return to the “hide your capacities, bide your time” strategy of Deng Xiaoping. But such a return can scarcely obscure China’s ambitious goals that Mr Xi has laid bare. Even if Beijing starts soft-pedalling its ambitions, it is likely to adopt a “two steps forward, one step back” strategy to keep progressing toward its goals.

Brahma Chellaney is a geostrategist and the author of nine books, including the award-winning “Water, Peace, and War”

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Re: China - News & Discussion

Post by vishvak » Sat Feb 02, 2019 7:33 am

Kenya's biggest port under risk of Chinese control after, what else but, non repayment of loans.

China is also building deep sea port for Nigeria and railways.
China's expanding footprints
Analysis reported by Washington Post.
Read it all.

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Re: China - News & Discussion

Post by chetak » Tue Mar 19, 2019 9:15 am

twitter
Must watch video:

Joint Chiefs Chairman says Google refuses to work with US military but provides “direct benefit” to China’s military



https://twitter.com/HawleyMO/status/1106247367177764865

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