The Great Indian Political Drama - 1 (Oct 2017 - Mar 2018)

[achoudhury]

One of the most important key take away from exit poll for me was the voting percentage of Patidars. Chanakaya was showing 55% vote share, while no other agency is giving less then 50% to BJP. This is most significant data for me. Based on this, I am predicting 125 seats for BJP. Basically there are about 90 seats in south and central gujrat , where BJP can not loose more then 16-18 seats. Arithmetic is overwhelming in BJP's favor. This gives them 72-75 sure shot seats. Then 53 seats of North Guj apart from Ahmedabad ( a BJP bastion) , also contains mehsana, banaskantha, etc where BJP is competitive and will win some seats. Suarashtra has always been a dog fight between BJP and Congress . These are also two regions i.e. Saurashtra and North Gujrat , where Patidars are factor in 60% of seats. Out of all this, BJP is sure to get abt 10 seats from Ahmedabad, 3 Seats from Jamnagar and another 3 from Rajkot. In rest, if we take a dismal run rate of 25%, assuming patidars are split and counter OBC mobilization does not happen, then that will give BJP another 25 seats taking overall BJP seat tally to 115 minimum seats. That is the worst case scenario for BJP.And this is what most exit polls are considering to be safe. But Patidar vote split and counter OBC mobilisation will be a seat by seat phenomenon depending upon various local factors. Now coming back to the patidar votes, if it is 55% in favor of BJP then consider another 10 seats minimum for BJP taking my expected total to 125. If BJP gets 60% of patidar votes then add another 20 seats.

[Kabir]

Moi prediction is 140 for BJP especially after RaGa being promoted to Congress Chief

[Hari Seldon]

not good^. Last time he fell silent on Bihar all of a sudden and result was catastrophe...

Well, to be fair, he also cryptically tweeted "be prepared for 300+" weeks before the UP verdict and went radio-silent after that. Was proved right then, BTW.

Days before BH he started wavering and expressing Ifs and Buts.

[Hari Seldon]

Dunno how true this is but I do hope its 100% true:

Brig Arun Bajpai‏ @ArunBajpai 18h18 hours ago
Yogi Govt of UP getting all maj projects of last 15 yrs audited by by CAG. Lot of Netas & Babus upset because now all their wrong doings will be out in open. Their illegal properties may be attached? Nobody can blame CAG because it is autonomous body?

https://twitter.com/ArunBajpai/status/9 ... 4342378497

Th Yogi has proven to be a decisive, sharp do-er much like Modi in his first CM term.

[Karthik]

Guys, what's your take on SSwaraj being a mother to all pakis who request medical treatment in India? Is this prithviraj chouhan hangover, trying to be nice to people who want to harm and destroy us. Am sure the jihaids would be ROFL there.

[Chandragupta]

It is completely unnecessary and is the symbol of Hindu idiotness - thinking that "Oh, if we treat a Pakistani with Cancer, they will begin to love us". Most of these Pakistanis are snakes, who take advantage of Hindu foolishness, get treated for free and then go back to Pakistan and hate India like they did before.

What's even more upsetting is that there are people & organizations who donate & fund the treatment of Pakistanis rather than doing the same for poor Indians. Every such penny in India and all the time of the doctors must be used for Indians or well paying foreigners, there is no space for Pakistanis to come here & block up facilities that are for Indians.

[bharotshontan]

It is okay if Indian public money is not being used towards the treatment and all SSwaraj is doing is speeding up a visa attainment process.

[Sachin]

Guys, what's your take on SSwaraj being a mother to all pakis who request medical treatment in India? Is this prithviraj chouhan hangover, trying to be nice to people who want to harm and destroy us. Am sure the jihaids would be ROFL there.

I feel SSwaraj is just doing the way she is doing this now, precisely after getting an approval from NaMo, the BJP and perhaps even the RSS. SSwaraj can be the "motherly figure" where as the actual "Foreign Affairs" (and long term plan and strategies) are done by Na.Mo or the people appointed him for that purpose. Her actions may score a few brownie points, and nothing is being harmed by doing that as well. We all know Pakis don't change because India doled out VISAs for every sick Paki out there. But if that makes some "secular" Indians happy, what is the harm in doing that? If there is no wastage of Indian tax payer's money, or a big security risk; perhaps these small gestures should just go on.

[la.khan]

not good^. Last time he fell silent on Bihar all of a sudden and result was catastrophe...

Well, to be fair, he also cryptically tweeted "be prepared for 300+" weeks before the UP verdict and went radio-silent after that. Was proved right then, BTW.

Days before BH he started wavering and expressing Ifs and Buts.

I don't know the exact reason Praveen Patil has fallen silent but one reason PP is not too involved in these elections could be the results are strongly in favour of one party (in this case BJP). Not much work for him to make a difference. If this is the case, why expend scarce resources on these elections? Conserving his strength for more opportune times. I vaguely recollect PP facing funds crunch in the last 2-3 years.

Having looked at the exit polls last night on TV, my guess is that BJP will get around 130-132 in Gujarat; in Himachal, 48-50. Keeping my fingers crossed for Mon., 18th Dec.

Just my doh paise!

[chetak]

Guys, what's your take on SSwaraj being a mother to all pakis who request medical treatment in India? Is this prithviraj chouhan hangover, trying to be nice to people who want to harm and destroy us. Am sure the jihaids would be ROFL there.

the chinese, the tallel and sweetel friends of the pakis have not given a single medical visa to any paki.

Why should the Indian medical ecosystem take up these cases??

It is because some very socially climbing, politically greedy and "foreign NGO funding in anticipation" award seeking doctors are the ones who are overtly and covertly pushing this agenda. Most pakis do not pay any fees in India because there is an entire NGO ecosystem here that is only present to cater to these paki needs and these NGOs take care of these very matlabi pakis from stay of the families to all other expenses in exchange for video testimony of the generosity of the largesse received in India which then results in more funds coming in for these very same entities.

Such generosity is very rarely available to poor and impoverished Indian patients, however deserving they may be.

[abhijit]

There is a tactical need to keep our image soft wrt neighbors. Giving direct medical aid is far better than UPA policy of monetary benefits like actors and crickers which in turn can be converted into terrorist money. A few dozens or even couple of hundred medical treatments are worth thr impact - imagine what neighbors and asian countries think when they see even in enemity india does not lose humanity. Small actions create great perceptions. I am fine with what SS is up to. But cricket matches or actors coming here to make money is big NO.

[Karthik]

Now what's happening in RJ? Seems CM has frozen the bank account of the wife of the guy who killed a minority guy in a video. It seems people were depositing money to the wife's account and CM has hence frozen it. I am new to these legal process, but it's first of a kind I've heard.
Along with that some conflict between Jains and BJP there over plans to demolish 1000 year old jain temple. (heard the govt there also demolished many old hindu temples, instead of relocating them.)

[Hari Seldon]

The phoren handlers (and desi ones like ahmed paytel) aren't gonna let this goongi goose go so soon now, are they?

Pappu can play pretend-prez during the day whereas the paytel types will pull party strings by night. yawn.

[Sajith]

act reason Praveen Patil has fallen silent but one reason PP is not too involved in these elections could be the results are strongly in favour of one party (in this case BJP).

Someone had mentioned in Praveen Patil's twitter timeline that he passed away.Does anyone know?

[chetak]

act reason Praveen Patil has fallen silent but one reason PP is not too involved in these elections could be the results are strongly in favour of one party (in this case BJP).

Someone had mentioned in Praveen Patil's twitter timeline that he passed away.Does anyone know?

maybe he has been warned off by some political types.

He does not crowdsource anymore. Maybe the moneybags has interests in the other camp??

[KarthikSan]

PP's tweet from Nov 14, 2017:

https://twitter.com/5Forty3/status/930412575644200961

Guess that says it all. No need for further comments from him!!!

[abhijit]

act reason Praveen Patil has fallen silent but one reason PP is not too involved in these elections could be the results are strongly in favour of one party (in this case BJP).

Someone had mentioned in Praveen Patil's twitter timeline that he passed away.Does anyone know?

Too bad if true.

[KarthikSan]

Why should the Indian medical ecosystem take up these cases??

It is good pisskology for riding the high holy horse when the situation arises. Take a look at Unkil Amikhan. He sends more Abfools to Jannat than anybody else but they always claim moral superiority when doing the "right" thing. The whole "Give us your poor yada yada BS..." still gives them the right to pontificate high morals to the world. This is just a small gesture with very little risk to us but gives us the chance to ride that moral high horse once in a while.

[abhijit]

Congress is disrupting parliament over Modi' remark on meeting with pakistanis. They don't realize more they shout more it will be discussed and raise more doubt about their friendship with pakistanis.

[Gus]

amit shah is great at creating these damned if you do and damned if you don't situations for opposition.

if they don't protest it looks bad, if they protest that looks bad too...

[Hari Seldon]

Mean-e-while....

[Chandragupta]

Congressis have lost it. They want more people to know that they wine & dine with Pakistanis at night while pretending to be patriots by day! I say, shout louder!

[Shyamal]

I am still scared. What is the news from local gujarati sources?
Gujarati papers? channels? surveys?

[Shyamal]

Teesta Shetalvad gets light slap from Supreme court. SC dismisses her petition to unfreeze her accounts.

[abhijit]

I am still scared. What is the news from local gujarati sources?
Gujarati papers? channels? surveys?

Apparently in the entire world only gujratis are confident of bjp's victory in gujrat.